浅谈会计电算化软件的安全性

企业单位会计电算化软件应用,加快了会计信息处理的速度,提高了会计信息处理的质量,同时也增加了企业会计信息的风险。因此必须高度重视会计电算化软件存在的主要安全隐患,加强对会计电算化软件安全防范,从而使会计电算化软件安全、高效运行,为企业带来更大的经济效益。     

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

Mean reversion in annual earnings and its implications for security valuation

This article documents the long-horizon mean reverting character of annual earnings and tests the implications of such mean reversion for security valuation. First, both theory-based and nonparametric measures of earnings persistence decrease as the estimation order increases, revealing 40 percent less long-horizon persistence than expected under the commonly used random walk model. Second, the return responses to the earnings shocks are more closely related across firms to the higher-order measures of persistence that reflect significant long-horizon mean reversion. Third, the persistence measure derived from classical valuation theory outperforms the generic measure in explaining the return responses. Taken as a whole, these results provide evidence for significant mean reversion in the higher-order properties of earnings and for the stock market incorporating these properties in a manner consistent with classical valuation theory.     

论企业群的组织机理

企业群是一种非常普遍的经济现象,它是指在一定地域形成的以提供某种产品或服务为核心,以信任关系为纽带,以市场竞争为外在表现形式的社会网络组织。由于企业聚集,企业群内具有明显的外部经济性,这些经济"外益"的主要表现是,由于企业群组织机理的作用,企业的市场交易费用和组     

优化我国证券收益所得课税的思考

我国经济和证券市场的高速发展对现行证券税制提出更高的要求。因此,我国证券税制的改革应循着这样的道路:进一步完善现行税制,并与国际惯例接轨;调节收入分配关系,更好地体现公平原则;打击短期投资行为,鼓励长期投资;尽快解决重复征税问题,使之成为推动证券市场健康发展的动力。     

西方经济学中的社会保障理论批判

西方社会保障理论是围绕效用价值论这个基础展开的,这导致了西方社会保障理论和政策的混乱。马克思主义社会保障理论建立在剩余价值理论和再生产理论的基础上,是科学合理的。西方社会保障理论的产生和发展,始终围绕着国家干预主义和经济自由主义两大思潮的兴衰而发展演变。马克思主义社会保障理论从维持社会再生产顺利进行和维护广大劳动人们利益的角度,始终强调国家在社会保障中的作用,反对社会保障的私有化。西方国家社会保障实践随着西方社会保障理论的发展而发展变化,而每次政策实践的较大变化又与理论的突破和创新密切相关。我国的社会保障理论,要在坚持马克思主义的基础上,根据时代需要实现全面创新。     

Demographic Shock and Social Security: A Political Economy Perspective

We assume that individual voters differ not only according to age but also productivity. In the steady state, workers with wages in the intermediate range join the retired persons to form a majority and vote for a positive level of social security. When a shock decreases population growth, entrenched interests can constrain majority voting decisions and prevent reforms in the name of entitlements. We show that from a Rawlsian viewpoint it may be desirable to rely on these entitlements to protect the low wage earners of the transition generations. However, when the possibility of fixing a basic pension is introduced, it constitutes a better instrument than entitlements.     

Housing-Price Cycles and Prepayment Rates of U.S. Mortgage Pools

Empirical mortgage prepayment models generally have trouble explaining differences in mortgage-prepayment speeds among pools with similar interest rates on the underlying mortgages. In this article, we model some of the sources of termination heterogeneity across mortgage pools, particularly the role of regional variations in housing prices in generating atypical prepayment speeds. Using a sample of Freddie Mac mortgage pools from 1991 to 1998, we compare two classes of empirical models: a rational option-pricing model using a backward-solving pricing algorithm and an empirical hazard model. In both empirical estimation strategies, we find evidence that differences in house-price dynamics across regions are an important source of between-pool heterogeneity. This finding is then shown to be robust to alternative ways of parameterizing pool heterogeneity in mortgage termination models.     

保障石油供应 维护石油安全

通过我国与美国石油工业供需发展情况的对比，在分析美国石油工业发展的经验、结合我国石油工业自身特点和不足的基础上，对我国的石油供应提出了几点建议。