Trends in stock-bond correlations

Previous studies document the existence of long-run trends in comovements in the stock and bond markets. Following these findings, this article examines possible trends in stock-bond return correlations. To this end, we introduce a trend component into a smooth transition regression (STR) model including the multiple transition variables of Aslanidis and Christiansen (2012). The results indicate the existence of significant decreasing trends in stock-bond correlations for many advanced safer countries. In addition, although stock market volatility continues to be an important factor in stock-bond correlations, the short rate and yield spread become only marginally significant once we introduce the trend component. Our out-of-sample analysis also demonstrates that the STR model, including the volatility index and time trend as the transition variables, dominates other models. Furthermore, we find a significant increase in stock-bond correlations for riskier euro countries around the beginning of the euro crisis. Our findings of decreasing and increasing trends in stock-bond correlations can be considered a consequence of the decreasing effects of diversification and more intensive flight-to-quality behaviour that have taken place in recent years and after the euro crisis.     

Reserves and cash flows under stochastic retirement

Uncertain time of retirement and uncertain structure of retirement benefits are risk factors for life insurance companies. Nevertheless, classical life insurance models assume these are deterministic. In this paper, we include the risk from stochastic time of retirement and stochastic benefit structure in a classical finite-state Markov model for a life insurance contract. We include discontinuities in the distribution of the retirement time. First, we derive formulas for appropriate scaling of the benefits according to the time of retirement and discuss the link between the scaling and the guarantees provided. Stochastic retirement creates a need to rethink the construction of disability products for high ages and ways to handle this are discussed. We show how to calculate market reserves and how to use modified transition probabilities to calculate expected cash flows without significantly more complexity than in the traditional model. At last, we demonstrate the impact of stochastic retirement on market reserves and expected cash flow in numerical examples.     

基于DPSIR-TOPSIS的城市绿色转型评价及实证——以太原市为例

基于DPSIR模型,构建了包括驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个方面的城市绿色转型评价指标体系,并将熵权法与TOPSIS法相结合确定指标权重。基于该评价指标系统,对2006—2014年太原市的绿色转型状况进行了评价与分析。结果表明:虽然太原市的绿色转型水平逐渐提高,但是整体效果处于一般水平,转型状况不太理想。     

智慧通古今思想达天下——五句《论语》经典的本意解读和现实意义

儒家思想是中国传统思想的核心资源。2007年9月28日，在山东曲阜举行的祭孔大典上揭晓了“国人不可不知的五句《论语》经典”，这五句《论语》经典分别是“有朋自远方来，不亦乐乎”“四海之内皆兄弟也”“己所不欲，勿施于人”“德不孤，必有邻”和“礼之用，和为贵”。深刻领悟这些思想，对于我们构建社会主义和谐社会以及建设和谐世界都具有重要的现实意义。     

论和谐社会视野中水库管理部门纪检监察工作的开展

纪检监察机关肩负着反腐倡廉为构建和谐社会提供纪律保证的艰巨任务,必须深刻理解构建社会主义和谐社会这一全新执政治国理念的重大现实意义和深远历史意义。本文分析了在建设社会主义和谐社会的大背景下如何展开水库管理部门纪检监察工作的对策。     

社区变迁对区域经济的影响分析

社区变迁影响着区域经济的发展,社区在发展过程中所形成的固有优势影响着社区的进一步发展,社区的规模和制度创新引导着资源向城市、社区的流动,资源流动和资源优势使区域经济发展出现新的格局,区域经济的发展依赖于城市群经济和海洋经济的发展。     

CORRUPTION AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: A PANEL GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

This paper investigates the relationship between corruption and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the case of 15 transition countries by using a panel gravity model approach and suggests that corruption does not deter FDI.     

“十二五”时期海峡西岸经济区经济社会发展趋势分析

通过分析“十一五”以来海西区主体——福建省经济社会发展的主要成就和“十二五”时期海峡西岸经济区经济社会发展将面临的机遇和挑战，充分考虑到新一轮发展的外部环境、经济结构、增长趋势的合理性，运用柯布一道格拉斯函数为基础的各种计量模型预测，结合专家预测、经验判断等方法，对“十二五”时期海峡西岸经济区国民经济发展作出相应的预测分析。     

Marx and Engels’ Vision of a Better Society

Notwithstanding their much noted aversion to detailing the nature of a post-capitalist society, Marx and Engels indeed have a broad vision of such a better society that both runs through and informs their entire lives' work. It is rooted in their concepts of the inherently social nature of humans and potential authentic human development in accord with human nature, and the negation by humans as the active agents of history of the barriers posed to that development. This paper discuses their dialectic approach to defining a better society, their concept of human nature that it rests on, and finally specifies a number general aspects they give for a better future socialist society.