供给侧改革对产业结构升级的空间效应研究——基于空间面板杜宾模型

本文构建了产业结构高级化和合理化的指标评价体系,从产业结构高级化和合理化两个维度衡量产业结构升级,并引入了地方政府基础建设类支出、科学支出、税收政策、国有化程度以及金融环境等变量,基于2001～2013年全国31省数据,建立空间面板杜宾模型,分析了供给侧改革对产业结构升级的空间效应。实证结果显示：总体上,基础建设类支出和税收政策对产业结构高级化和合理化均存在负向空间效应,不利于我国产业结构的升级;科技支出和金融业发展对产业结构高级化和合理化均存在正向空间效应,有助于我国产业结构的升级。特别的,国有化程度对产业结构高级化和合理化具有显著的正向空间溢出效应;基础建设类支出对产业结构高级化和合理化具有负向的空间溢出效应。     

丝绸之路经济带投资结构对产业结构调整的空间效应——以国内段为例

本文运用全国与丝绸之路经济带沿线9省区市2003～2014年的面板数据,通过建立空间计量模型,分析了投资结构对产业结构变动的空间效应。结果表明：（1）区域产业结构的变动存在显著的空间依赖性;（2）与全国比较,丝绸之路经济带投资结构对产业结构的调整具有显著的促进作用。非公共基础设施投资对产业结构合理化、高级化的积极作用最大,尤其是对西北地区产业结构合理化,西南地区高级化的作用较大,而对全国呈现出消极效应;（3）硬性基础设施投资对西北地区产业结构合理化和高级化的积极作用最明显,而软性基础设施投资对西南地区产业高级化的贡献较大。表明调整丝绸之路经济带投资结构能够提高本地和相邻地区产业结构的优化升级。     

经济增长、能源结构与工业污染——基于空间面板计量实证研究

本文基于环境EKC曲线理论,采用2002～2013年中国31个省际的面板数据,运用空间数据分析方法对经济增长、能源结构与工业污染的空间分布格局相关性进行研究。进一步运用空间计量方法,研究经济增长、能源结构对工业污染的空间效应。研究结果发现：经济增长、能源结构与工业污染存在空间相关性,并在空间分布上存在明显的“路径依赖”特征并形成了不同集聚区域。经济增长、能源结构对工业污染的空间影响效应明显,经济增长与工业污染呈现EKC曲线假设的倒“U”形关系,能源结构与工业污染呈现正向相关关系。最后在实证结果的基础上提出相关建议。     

The role of geographic distance in completing related acquisitions: Evidence from U.S. chemical manufacturers

Acquisitions often do not reach completion when buyers' initial evaluations change during post‐announcement due diligence investigations, but research offers only limited explanations for when such deal‐cancelling new information will be most common. Drawing from the spatial geography and acquisition strategy literatures, we argue that successful completion of acquisitions can be partially explained by their spatial characteristics. We start by predicting that geographic distance has a particularly strong impact in reducing the likelihood of completing related acquisitions; we then identify contingencies based on multiple forms of direct, contextual, and vicarious experience that can help acquirers overcome the constraints of distance. We test the arguments with a sample of 1,603 domestic acquisitions announced by 724 U.S. chemical manufacturing firms between 1980 and 2004. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Blocked-Error-R 2: A Conceptually Improved Definition of the Proportion of Explained Variance in Models Containing Loops or Correlated Residuals

Bentler and Raykov (2000, Journal of Applied Psychology 85: 125–131), and Jöreskog (1999a, http://www.ssicentral.com/lisrel/column3.htm, 1999b http://www.ssicentral. com/lisrel/column5.htm) proposed procedures for calculating R ² for dependent variables involved in loops or possessing correlated errors. This article demonstrates that Bentler and Raykov’s procedure can not be routinely interpreted as a “proportion” of explained variance, while Jöreskog’s reduced-form calculation is unnecessarily restrictive. The new blocked-error-R ² (beR ²) uses a minimal hypothetical causal intervention to resolve the variance-partitioning ambiguities created by loops and correlated errors. Hayduk (1996) discussed how stabilising feedback models – models capable of counteracting external perturbations – can result in an acceptable error variance which exceeds the variance of the dependent variable to which that error is attached. For variables included within loops, whether stabilising or not, beR ² provides the same value as Hayduk’s (1996) loop-adjusted-R ². For variables not involved in loops and not displaying correlated residuals, beR ² reports the same value as the traditional regression R ². Thus, beR ² provides a conceptualisation of the proportion of explained variance that spans both recursive and nonrecursive structural equation models. A procedure for calculating beR ² in any SEM program is provided.     

Unemployment duration and the interactions between unemployment insurance and social assistance

Existing studies suggest that reforms that reduce the generosity of the unemployment benefits should lower unemployment. Despite the large number of such reforms implemented in Europe in the past decades, evidence from various data sources shows very little correlation with the evolution of unemployment. This paper suggests that the scant success of these labour market reforms can be explained by the interactions between unemployment insurance and other social assistance programmes. Evidence from the European Community Household Panel shows that recipients of unemployment insurance who are also eligible for other welfare schemes are indeed less sensitive to changes in the level and the duration of their benefits.     

Value and liquidity under changing market conditions

Papers studying the liquidity of a market tend to focus on decisions involving the trade-off between the selling price and the time-till-sale for a given set of market conditions. This paper characterizes market conditions using a price-probability locus; a change in market conditions is some combination of changes in the level and/or slope of this locus. I show how the effect of either type of change on price and on the probability-of-sale can be decomposed into those commonly associated with an increase in the value and those which involve a substitution between price and probability. Two adding-up conditions restrict the set of possible predictions. Though the discussion focusses on real estate market, where scarcity is rationed by a mechanism which combines search and bargaining, the same ideas apply to markets with other types of selling mechanisms.     

Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach

In state–space models, parameter learning is practically difficult and is still an open issue. This paper proposes an efficient simulation-based parameter learning method. First, the approach breaks up the interdependence of the hidden states and the static parameters by marginalizing out the states using a particle filter. Second, it applies a Bayesian resample-move approach to this marginalized system. The methodology is generic and needs little design effort. Different from batch estimation methods, it provides posterior quantities necessary for full sequential inference and recursive model monitoring. The algorithm is implemented both on simulated data in a linear Gaussian model for illustration and comparison and on real data in a Lévy jump stochastic volatility model and a structural credit risk model.     

Editorial

Abstract

In this paper we summarize and comment on the papers published in issue 6.3. The papers reviewed are: ‘In Search of “W”’ by Richard Harris, John Moffat &; Victoria Kravtsova; ‘Cross-national Neighbouring Effects on European Regional Specialization’ by Toni Mora, Patricia Garcia-Duran &; Montserrat Millet; ‘Intra-national Purchasing Power Parity and Balassa–Samuelson Effects in Italy’ by Andrea Vaona; ‘Enterprise and Competitive Advantage in the Australian Context: A Spatial Econometric Perspective’ by Paul Plummer &; Michael Taylor; and ‘Development of a Large-scale Single US Region CGE Model using IMPLAN Data: A Los Angeles County Example with a Productivity Shock Application’ by James Andrew Giesecke.

Analyses économiques spatiales: éditorial

Résumé dans la présente communication, nous résumons les communications publiées dans le numéro 6.3, et nous présentons nos commentaires. Les communications en question sont les suivantes : « A la recherche de W » (In Search of W) par Richard Harris, John Moffat et Victoria Kravtsova ; « Effets du voisinage transfrontière sur la spécialisation régionale européenne » (Cross-national neighbouring effects on European regional specialisation) par Toni Mora, Patricia Garcia-Duran et Montserrat Millet ; « Parité du pouvoir d'achat intranational et effets de Balassa-Samuelson en Italie (Intra-national Purchasing Power Parity and Balassa-Samuelson Effects in Italy), par Andrea Vaona ; « Entreprise et Avantage sur la Concurrence dans le contexte de l'Australie : une Perspective économétrique spatiale » (Enterprise and Competitive Advantage in the Australian Context: A Spatial Econometric Perspective) par Paul Plummer et Michael Taylor ; et « Développement d'un modèle CGE à grande échelle pour une région individuelle des États-Unis à l'aide de données IMPLAN : un exemple du comté de Los Angeles avec une application choc de la Productivité » (Development of a large-scale single U.S. region CGE model using IMPLAN data: A Los Angeles County example with a productivity shock application), par James Andrew Giesecke.

Análisis económico espacial: editorial

Extracto En este estudio resumimos y hacemos comentarios sobre estudios publicados en la edición 6.3. Los estudios revisados son: ‘In Search of ‘W’’ (En busca de ‘W’) de Richard Harris, John Moffat y Victoria Kravtsova; ‘Cross-national neighbouring effects on European regional specialisation’ (Efectos de la contigüidad transnacional sobre la especialización regional europea) de Toni Mora, Patricia García-Duran y Montserrat Millet; ‘Intra-national Purchasing Power Parity and Balassa-Samuelson Effects in Italy’ (Paridad del poder adquisitivo intranacional y los efectos Balassa-Samuelson en Italia) de Andrea Vaona; ‘Enterprise and Competitive Advantage in the Australian Context: A Spatial Econometric Perspective’ (Empresa y ventaja competitiva en el contexto australiano: una perspectiva econométrica espacial) de Paul Plummer y Michael Taylor; y, ‘Development of a large-scale single U.S. region CGE model using IMPLAN data: A Los Angeles County example with a productivity shock application’ (Desarrollo de un modelo CGE a gran escala de una región estadounidense única utilizando datos IMPLAN: un ejemplo de Los Angeles County con una aplicación de choque de productividad) de James Andrew Giesecke.

     

Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar

Abstract

This paper places the key issues and implications of the new ‘introductory’ book on spatial econometrics by James LeSage & Kelley Pace (2009) in a broader perspective: the argument in favour of the spatial Durbin model, the use of indirect effects as a more valid basis for testing whether spatial spillovers are significant, the use of Bayesian posterior model probabilities to determine which spatial weights matrix best describes the data, and the book's contribution to the literature on spatio-temporal models. The main conclusion is that the state of the art of applied spatial econometrics has taken a step change with the publication of this book.

Relever le niveau de l'économetrie spatial appliquée

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication place les principales questions et implications du nouvel ouvrage d'introduction sur l'économétries spatiale de James LeSage & Kelley Pace (2009) dans un contexte plus général: l'argument favorisant le modèle spatial de Durbin, l'emploi d'effets indirects comme base plus valable pour évaluer l'aspect significatif des déversements spatiaux, l'emploi des probabilités d'un modèle baysien postérieur pour évaluer laquelle des matrices de poids spatiaux décrit le mieux les donnes, et la contribution de l'ouvrage la documentation sur les modèles spatio-temporels. La principale conclusion est qu'avec la publication de cet ouvrage, l'état de l'art de l'économétries spatiale applique a effectué un grand pas en avant.

Alzar el nivel de la econometría espacial aplicada

RÉSUMÉ Este trabajo plantea las cuestiones e implicaciones clave del nuevo libro introductorio sobre económetra espacial de James LeSage & Kelley Pace (2009) dentro de una perspectiva más amplia: el argumento a favor del modelo espacial Durbin, el uso de efectos indirectos como una base más válida para poner a prueba si los desbordamientos espaciales son significativos, el uso de probabilidades posteriores bayesianas para descubrir que matriz de pesos espaciales describe mejor los datos, y la contribución del libro a la bibliógrafa sobre modelos espaciotemporales. La principal conclusión es que la econometría espacial aplicada más avanzada ha experimentado un cambio radical con la publicación de este libro.