基于地理加权回归的上海市房价空间分异及其影响因子研究

利用上海市外环以内2010年12月1014个小区的平均房价数据,通过构建地理加权回归模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)进行比较,揭示上海小区房价的空间分异和不同影响因子的影响。研究发现,每增加或减少一个单位各影响因子对房价的影响大小依次为:建成时间,到CBD距离,绿化率,到公园距离,距地铁站距离,距超市距离和距学校距离。同时,地理加权回归分解成局部参数估计优于OLS提供的全局参数估计,它可以深刻的揭示出房价和空间影响因子之间复杂的关系,而且可视化的工具可以用地图的形式更详细的呈现出城市房价的整体景观,这些都是传统OLS无法比拟的。     

中国土地利用碳排放及其空间关联

基于研究单元全部土地利用类型数据,采用碳排放计算模型,估算了中国31个省区1990-2008年的土地利用碳排放强度,揭示其时空演变规律,并利用空间自相关方法,探讨了中国省级尺度土地利用碳排放强度的空间关联特征.结果表明:①1990-2008年,中国土地利用碳排放量从9.67×108t持续上升至32.37× 108t.建设用地是主要的碳排放来源,其碳排放量占总碳排放量的97.83％以上.林地是主要的碳汇,其碳排放量占总碳排放量的90％以上.②受经济发展水平和地形差异的影响,碳排放强度空间差异显著,重度碳排放区域集中分布在东部、北部沿海地区,轻度碳排放区域集中分布在西北、西南地区.③全局自相关Moran'sI值从1990年的0.1558持续上升至2008年的0.2734,说明中国土地利用碳排放强度在省级尺度上具有明显的空间集聚特征,且集聚程度不断增强.④集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移存在较强的规律性.⑤局域自相关分析表明,中国土地利用碳排放强度表现出十分明显的局部空间差异.碳排放强度高值集聚区和低值集聚区均表现出较强的空间锁定和路径依赖特征,体现为高值集聚区向沿海集中,低值集聚区向内陆迁移.     

Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of stable VAR models by means of the delta method. These covariance matrices can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions to assess the underlying estimation uncertainty. The usefulness of the formulae for empirical work is illustrated by an application to inflation and output gap data for the U.S. economy indicating the existence of a significant short-run Phillips-curve tradeoff.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

呼和浩特地区城镇体系工农业发展能力的异速生长分析

文章运用分形思想和系统科学理论对呼和浩特各旗县20余年工业总产值和农业总产值进行异速生长分析,发现各旗县之间在工业发展上存在较好的幂指数关系,而在农业发展上则存在明显的退化。通过系统结构的深入分析,揭示了呼和浩特市各旗县发展的基础和未来的发展潜力。在理论上为城镇体系异速生长的多指标分析建立了一个完整范例,在实践上则为正在进行的呼和浩特市城镇发展战略规划提供了科学依据。     

全球化背景下发展中国家大都市区空间发展的比较研究

在过去的20年间,发展中国家大都市区空间发展经历了增长与挫折;文章选取了几个典型的发展中国家大都市区,从空间的扩展与重构、社会空间分异等方面进行了深入的剖析;总结出具有一般性的发展中国家大都市区空间发展的解析模式,并提出了解决空间发展症结的关键举措。最后,针对我国经济发展和大都市区的实际情况,进行了若干思考。     

The Legislator as Political Entrepreneur: Investment in Political Capital

This paper applies the standard Austrian theory of capital investment to the standard interest group model of legislator behavior. Distinguishing between reputational capital and representative capital as interdependent forms of political capital, I argue that legislator behavior (specifically roll call voting) can be explained as entrepreneurial investment in political capital under uncertainty. I discuss several examples in which this approach can potentially add predictive power regarding legislative voting.     

Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

舞动的诗歌——从空间排列看诗意的释放

＂浓缩的都是精华的＂这句话是为诗歌量身定做的。诗歌,无论是东方的还是西方的,古代的还是现代的,都以其凝练、深邃、富含哲理性而为人称颂。诗歌带给人的是视觉和听觉的双重冲击。听其音,感其韵,声声入耳;观其形,赏其态,字字入画。诗中有画,画中有诗。艺术都是相通的。诗歌意义的表达是多方面的,似乎逐字逐句地写并不能尽兴,也不能尽意,诗人偏离常态把诗的含义释放在空间之中,让读者在动用思维的同时享受了一场视觉的盛宴。诗意的空间释放一方面使诗富于美感,过目难忘,另一方面强化、突出了诗的内涵。     

区域产业集群整体品牌的名称术语规范研究

“区域产业集群”概念清晰地揭示了产业空间集聚的“产业特性”和“地域特性”,是概括产业空间集聚现象的最适宜名称术语。将基于区域产业集群形成的集群整体品牌命名为“区域品牌”,具有明显的缺陷。“区域产业集群品牌”或“区域产业品牌”概念术语全面彰显了“区域”、“产业集群”（或“产业”）和“品牌”三大元素。