基于VAR模型的我国铜锌期货价格引导关系实证研究

铜、锌期货是大宗金属期货的重要品种，在期货投资市场上广受追捧。研究通过构建VAR模型，运用格兰杰因果检验，分析了近远月铜、锌期货价格之间相互引导关系，模型实证结论认为远月期铜、锌期货价格之间具有显著的相互引导关系，为期货市场上各类型投资者提供政策指引。     

The impact of temporary uses on property prices: the example of food trucks

Food trucks represent a temporary use of vacant or underutilised land. They have been assumed to increase the livability, vibrancy and attractiveness of a neighbourhood. However, no previous study has investigated whether this effect is reflected in property prices within the surrounding neighbourhood. We investigate the impact of a food truck pod on the values of single-family homes nearby. Using a quasi-experimental design, transaction data from Portland, Oregon and a difference-in-difference specification of a spatial regression model, we find that food trucks actually represent a negative externality, and that proximity of a home to food trucks is penalised by homebuyers. The closer a home is to the food trucks, the lower is the sales price. Explanations for this effect include increased parking shortages and trash issues in a neighbourhood due to food truck visitors.     

Informal Traders and the Battlegrounds of Revanchism in Cusco,Peru

Informal trading in the global South, particularly in Latin America, is the subject of revanchist urban policy and yet few studies have examined the longer‐term impacts of such intolerant policies on traders. This article explores the evolution and impacts of revanchist policies directed at informal traders in the Andean city of Cusco. It makes two key contributions. First, it documents a shift from early revanchist policies to a post‐revanchist era where policies have become more tolerant of informal traders. However, contemporary policies fall short of a supportive environment for informal trading, hence the authors recommend changes that will ensure informal traders can access the city's streets and become an accepted part of the urban fabric. Second, given the lack of theoretical attention given to the impacts of revanchism, a battlegrounds framework is developed, consisting of spatial, political, economic and socio‐cultural battlegrounds. This framework provides a comprehensive insight into the complex set of interactions that exist between informal traders and the state. It is hoped that the framework will provide a tool for further research into the highly damaging impacts of revanchism across the globe.     

Oil risk contracts,business conduct and performance patterns: Data panel analysis

Using the economic and financial performance data of international companies for the exploration, and exploration–extraction (E&E) of oil, as well as the patterns of institutional situation and orientation with the government market and national oil companies or NOCs that receive project offers, we analyze the institutional development and behavior patterns by type of E&E contract, following the strategic actor approach, or the so-called agency theory. Additionally, in light of Mexico's energy reform being implemented between 2015 and 2019, we analyzed the types of license contracts compared to those for production and shared profit. Subsequently, it was determined-through panel data methods in the analysis of 17 companies between 2005 and 2015-that global companies present bigger yields and commitments compared to specialized companies, confirmed by their net income and returns on equity or ROE.     

Financial components of FDI and choice of capital structure: an analysis for 30 OECD countries

Even though the choice of capital structure depends on the three different financial components of foreign direct investment (FDI), previous research has regarded FDI as unidimensional rather than multidimensional. This study addresses new findings in the FDI area and investigates the relevant determinants of capital structure in 30 OECD countries from 2006 to 2014 within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Our primary findings reveal that each component has its own deterministic features driven by relevant policy variables and risks in the market. While an increase or decrease in equity capital shows the ability of the host country to attract new investments, the subsequent components are mostly used to adjust the equity capital investment exposure.     

北部湾城市群自然资本利用状况、空间分析与驱动因素

以北部湾城市群为例用三维生态足迹模型、偏最小二乘法、空间计量模型分析了其自然资本利用状况、空间相关性、驱动因素。结论:(1)城市群自然资本利用处于不可持续状态;(2)自然资本利用程度划分为低、中、高三类,城市也相应分成三类;(3)自然资本利用的主要驱动因素是人口因素、社会经济;(4)空间分析显示全局莫兰指数为正,空间集聚显著,表明自然资本利用存在空间正相关;空间误差模型拟合度最好,并证明自然资本存量占用与人口总量正相关,与GDP总额负相关。     

基于VAR模型的黄金价格影响因素分析

自20世纪70年代初期布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，美国割断了美元与黄金的固定比价关系，使黄金价格步入了市场化的轨道，黄金价格的大幅波动越演越烈，这使得人们越来越重视探讨影响黄金价格的种种因素。为此，利用VAR模型对黄金价格自身、美国通货膨胀率、国际原油价格等因素与黄金价格总水平的关系进行研究。通过研究得到了各因素影响黄金价格总水平的程度，其中发现黄金价格自身的波动是导致国际黄金价格总水平上升的最主要因素，这为研究黄金价格的变动提供了重要依据。     

基于VAR模型的M2与GDP关系实证研究

近年来,随着我国经济不断的增长,广义货币供应量也在逐年的攀上新的高峰,今年的三月份更是突破了100万亿的大关,那么研究广义货币供应量与经济发展之间的相互关系也就变得很重要。选取1998年1月份至2012年3月份中国广义货币供应量和GDP的月度数据作为样本数据,通过建立VAR模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等分析方法,对M2对于GDP发展的影响进行分析。     

金融机构集聚过程的动态博弈分析

在理性行为人收益最大化原则条件下得出了行为人空间博弈的结果——在均衡状态,限制性条件(如运输技术等)能够产生一个收敛的空间区位调整过程,最终实现空间集聚。在这个博弈集聚的过程中,外部因素存在发生作用的空间,从而说明了政策制定者可以通过制定相关的政策来影响金融机构的集聚过程,进而促进金融市场的深化发展和金融中心的形成。这一空间集聚过程也可用于分析城镇化的形成和发展过程。     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.