Financial System and Housing Price

The 2007/2008 US financial crisis is related to the securitization of mortgage loans and the housing-price boom and bust. In this article, we test the hypothesis that housing-price change is related to the development of the financial system. Using panel data for 23 countries from 1988 to 2012, we have found that the housing-price growth rate increases as the financial system moves a bank orientation to a market orientation. The policy implication is that the government should beware sudden increases in the capital market relative to the banking sector. Especially, more sophisticated financial supervision with respect to housing-price movement is required when a bank-based financial system progresses quickly to a market-oriented financial system.     

Dynamic Currency Linkages and Their Determinants: An Empirical Study for East Asian Economic Community Region

In this article, Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of currency market co-movements between ASEAN+6 countries (referred to in this study as East Asian Economic Community) and ASEAN+6 currency market index. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit varying levels of currency co-movements with the Asian benchmark. Markov regime switching results show that many of the countries which had high dependences with the regional currency index as was found in copula estimations had also overlapping currency market cycles. Using Principal Component Analysis, we find that three statistical factors explain exchange rate co-movements which came out to be trade linkages, economic risk, and currency market openness in our dynamic panel data estimation.     

Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

Purchasing power parity in ASEAN-5 countries: revisit with cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks

This paper re-examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for a panel of ASEAN-5 countries. The panel unit root and cointegration tests, which incorporate cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, are innovatively used for testing the PPP hypothesis. We could not find evidence that supports the existence of a long-run equilibrium between the relative price ratio and the nominal exchange rate for the whole period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of a cointegrating relationship for the post-crisis period. Our finding implies that a flexible exchange rate regime is suitable for the individual ASEAN countries.     

Do monetary subjective well-being evaluations vary across space? Comparing continuous and discrete spatial heterogeneity

Using subjective well-being estimations, this study analyzes whether compensating variations vary across space using a cross-sectional data set from Chile. To achieve this goal, it describes and compares two econometric ways of modelling unobserved spatial heterogeneity. Both approaches allow compensating variations to vary across spatial units by assuming some distribution a priori. One method assumes that the spatial heterogeneity can be represented by a discrete distribution (a group of regions that share the same coefficient) and the other that the preferences can be represented by a continuous distribution (each region has a different coefficient). The results show that focusing just on the average estimates of compensating variations, as the applied studies have done so far, masks useful local variation. More empirical studies are needed to assess the advantages and disadvantages of both econometric approaches and how their results compare across a wide range of conditions and samples.     

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.     

中蒙俄经济走廊建设中内蒙古与蒙、俄产能一体化分析——以钢铁、水泥为例

在“一带一路”倡议背景下,内蒙古凭借地缘优势、人文优势正在积极参与中蒙俄经济走廊的建设,并发挥着重要作用。内蒙古通过对蒙、俄输出钢铁和水泥,对促进内蒙古的经济增长起到了一定的积极作用。本文利用TVP－VAＲ模型实证检验证实,内蒙古对蒙、俄在钢铁、水泥的产能输出,短期内对第二产业的增长影响较为显著,但中期影响减弱,长期影响不明显。因此,内蒙古应抓住机会,通过产能一体化进一步化解钢铁、水泥过剩产能,从而实现产业结构升级和创新发展。     

Credit risk,managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries

In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of credit risk in the banking system with a particular interest toward the Islamic banking industry. We analyze the link between credit risk and a set of bank-specific and macroeconomic along with institutional variables using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the factors of credit risk using one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) system estimator. Then, we explore the feedback between credit risk and its determinants in a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. We have used a sample of Middle Eastern, North African (MENA) and Asian countries to apply our model. The major purpose of this paper is to find factors that could explain credit risk within the interest-free banking system relative to the interest-based one.     

县域经济增长中结构红利的测度及决定 ——基于中国1 820个县面板数据的实证分析

产业结构升级是经济增长的源泉之一。本文基于中国1 820个县的面板数据，采用Translog生产函数估计要素弹性，进而测度县域经济增长中的结构红利，同时构建空间误差计量模型对结构红利的影响因素进行检验。研究结果表明2002-2010年间，结构红利占县域GDP总值的444%，对县域GDP增长的贡献达到了2435%。劳均资本、劳均土地等变量对结构红利有显著影响，本文还发现，在东部、中部、西部三个地区，财政支出占GDP的比重对结构红利都有显著的负向影响。     

An Empirical Investigation of Composite Product Choice

Prior ingredient branding research has examined the influence of “stated” factors such as fit between partner brands on composite product (e.g., Tide with Downy fabric softener) attitudes. This research focuses on choice of composite products, and addresses three managerially relevant questions: Which consumer segments are more likely to adopt the composite product? Will the choice of the composite product have positive or negative reciprocal effects on partner brands? Will the introduction of the composite product benefit the primary or the secondary brand more? The authors use a brand choice model to investigate the “revealed” choice of complements-based composite products. Study results indicate that (i) despite high fit between the composite product and the primary brand, consumer segments may have different choice likelihoods for these products, whereas prior research suggests equal likelihood; (ii) the choice of a composite product may not provide a positive reciprocal effect to the secondary brand; and (iii) the introduction of a composite product may benefit the primary brand more than the secondary brand, whereas prior research suggests a symmetrical benefit for the partner brands. Finally, the finding that introducing a composite product may not cannibalize the sale of the primary brand extends the ingredient branding literature, which has been silent on this issue.