生态需要与发展的理论研究

生态需要是人类三大需要的支柱之一，也是人类持久发展的动力源。正是人类的生态需要导致了人类发展观念的五种更新，促进人类需要结构的合理化，推动人类社会整体前进。     

经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。     

整合与超越:新全球化时代经济学范式探微

世界正发生着从"旧全球化时代"向"新全球化时代"的重大转变.伴随这一时代转折,建立在传统工业文明基础上的经济学正面临着研究范式的挑战,因为它已经不能适应以高科技为先导,以科技成果的商品化、产业化、国际化为特征的新时代所遇到的各种复杂问题.其研究范式急需进行整合与超越,交往实践观为其提供了新的视域和新的理论范式.     

Transport development and the evolution of economic geography

In this paper, based on the recent advances in the new economic geography (e.g., Fujita et al. [12]), we analyze impacts of transport costs on the spatial patterns of economic agglomeration. We first identify prototypes from the existing models, and explain the mechanism of how transport costs influence the balance between economic forces of agglomeration and dispersion. We then investigate the transformation of the agglomeration/dispersion patterns given gradually decreasing transport costs for different goods.Received: Received: July 2004 / Accepted: January 2005, Accepted: Received: July 2004 / Accepted: January 2005, JEL Classification: R12Tomoya Mori: Correspondence toThe authors are grateful to David Bernstein, Tatsuo Hatta, Komei Sasaki, Tony E. Smith, and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. This research is partly supported by The Grant in Aid for Research 08403001 of Ministry of Education, Science and Culture in Japan, the Murata Science Foundation, and WESCO Civil Engineering Technology Foundation.     

Evaluating investment projects in the presence of sectoral linkages1

In this paper we develop a framework to assess the economic impact of foreign investment projects. If investment projects interact with other industries in the host economy, either by buying inputs locally or by selling their own product to local downstream firms, they can create sectoral linkages. The expansion of upstream and downstream industries can feed back to the project's own industry leading to a further expansion of the local industry. We study the circumstances under which investment projects lead to the creation of sectoral linkages and characterize the factors that determine the project's welfare impact. We link analytical findings to case studies undertaken for the EBRD.     

地区专业化、产业集中与经济集聚——对我国制造业的实证分析

以新经济地理学模型为基本理论框架,对我国各省区专业化水平、制造业各行业的集中程度和整个制造业的集聚程度进行了实证分析,结果显示1993—2003年间我国各省份的专业化水平呈显著上升趋势,制造业大部分行业集中程度提高,整个制造业集聚程度上升。在制造业各行业集中程度和整个制造业集聚程度的测算中,引入SP指数,结果显示这一指标的引进是非常必要的。     

经济增长的变化本质

在过去的一个世纪中,富裕国家的经济本质已经发生了巨大的变化。因此,文章提出“技术生理演变(technophysio evolution)”概念,即快速技术变化和人类生理进步的协同作用。这主要表现在以下三个方面：(1)消费结构和工作体闲时间分配的改变;(2)经济和家庭产出分配方面受高水平经济成就的影响;(3)全球市场迅速急剧转向耐用消费品和高科技服务。     

On wage- and profit-led demand regimes: learning from the evidence

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium.     

北京的经济发展及其增长因素分析

建国以来，北京经济的发展发生了巨大的变化。对于经济增长的因素，主要表现在劳动力数量增加的变化和技术退步等方面。经济发展由资本和劳动力数量的增大等外延的发展形态转换为内涵的发展状态，即劳动力素质的改善、技术的追步以及资本集约度的上升等作为积极因素促进经济的增长。     

经济增长、结构调整的累积效应与资本形成——当前经济增长态势分析

1990年以来 ,特别是 2 0世纪 90年代中后期 ,中国的经济结构发生了重大调整 :基础设施的投入奠定了城市化的基础 ,工业化在消费和出口的拉动下逐步升级。中国经济增长开始由工业化单引擎发展到工业化与城市化的双引擎。由低价工业化到高价城市化的转化以及与之相应的资金流程与资本形成方式的变化 ,一方面引起近年来中国经济的快速发展 ,另一方面也对未来中国经济的持续增长形成挑战。通过政府体制、金融体系和财税体制的进一步改革 ,完善资源配置方式 ,将是应对挑战、保持中国经济持续增长的保证。