宏观审慎政策、经济周期与银行风险承担*

本文基于中国227家商业银行2005－2016年非平衡面板数据，实证检验中国宏观审慎政策实施对于银行风险承担的影响。结果表明：宏观审慎政策增强会在一定程度上抑制银行风险承担，而且这种显著的负向关系并不随着银行风险代理变量、经营辐射范围以及是否有外资入股等条件的改变而发生变化。经济周期会对宏观审慎政策的有效性产生非对称性影响，即相比在经济上行时期，在经济下行时期的宏观审慎政策对银行风险承担的抑制作用更强且更为显著。就可能的影响机制而言，本文发现宏观审慎政策通过提高银行盈利能力，从而降低银行风险承担。       

Turning corporate environmental ethics into firm performance: The role of green marketing programs

In this study, we develop a better understanding of the mechanisms by which corporate environmental ethics influences performance through the adoption of substantive actions. The empirical results of a moderated mediating analysis show that firms with higher environmental ethics are more likely to implement green marketing programs, consisting of the green production, pricing, distribution, and promotion programs and then improve firm performance. It is also observed that closure mechanism negatively moderates the mediation effect of green marketing programs because it leads to low trust and unwillingness to internal cooperation. These findings indicate that the value of corporate environmental ethics could not be determined in a vacuum, both strategy and people do matter when pursuing environmentally driven performance.     

黑龙江省校企合作创新机制探索

本文在对黑龙江省内共48所本科院校、独立学院以及高职高专院校(其中本科院校、独立学院22所,高职高专26所)的调研基础上,对黑龙江省校企合作的基本情况进行分析,结合当前宏观环境下我省校企合现状及存在问题,探求我省校企合作微观的机制整合,并对校企合作可能存在的创新机制予以初步的探索。     

机动车尾气污染危害的生成机理与治理发展

本文介绍了汽车尾气对人类健康和生态环境的危害,及其生成机理和影响因素并简述汽车尾气治理与发展。     

船舶结构焊接结晶裂纹的产生与防止

焊接结构中焊接裂纹经常出现,其中结晶裂纹是最容易产生的一种裂纹。本文介绍了焊接结构中结晶裂纹产生的原因,并提出了有效的预防措施。     

高职院校社会服务体制机制构建的探索与研究

社会服务是高职院校基本职能之一,建立健全高职院校社会服务组织管理机构是社会服务体制构建的首要环节,社会服务机制体系由制度安排、运行管理、激励措施和信息分享等基本要素组成,有效的社会服务对促进区域经济发展、高技术人才培养及扩大高职院校影响力,提高办学质量和深化内涵建设具有重大意义。     

Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

Partner‐diversity effects on alliance termination in the early stage of green alliance formation: Empirical evidence from carbon‐emission reduction projects in Latin America

Partner diversity is a key influencer in interorganizational alliances, and several empirical studies have shown that its outcomes are contingent on alliance‐specific factors. We extend this research as well as the growing literature on green alliances, in which partner diversity is uniquely high. Specifically, we examine partner‐diversity effects on alliance termination in the early stage of green alliance formation. We hypothesize that in this context, size disparity increases termination likelihood, whereas organizational variety and cultural separation have the opposite effect. To test our hypotheses, we use a sample of 366 alliance projects located in Latin America and submitted to the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism for evaluation, validation, and registration from 2004 to 2014. Our findings contribute to several research streams and provide practical guidance for successful formation of alliances focused on environmental protection.     

Political budget cycles revisited: Testing the signalling process

A widespread view in the ‘political budget cycles’ literature is that incumbent politicians seek to influence voters’ perceptions of their competence and/or preferences by using the composition of the fiscal budget as a signalling tool. However, little is known about whether voters actually receive and perceive the signal in that way. To empirically assess the relevance of the signalling channel at the municipal level, we conducted a survey among 2000 representative German citizens in 2018. Only a small fraction of voters feel well-informed about the fiscal budget signal and use the information it contains to decide whether to vote for the incumbent politician. Persons paying more attention to the signal sent by local politicians live in smaller municipalities, are more satisfied with their economic situation, are more educated, and do not feel that they are being electorally manipulated. Our analysis raises doubt about the relevance of budget composition as a signalling mechanism for voters at the local level.     

基于声誉效应的工程监理激励机制模型研究

为了提高工程监理工作积极性,基于Holmstrom-Milgrom模型,引入声誉效应,建立声誉效应和显性激励机制相结合的动态委托代理激励模型。分析声誉效应发挥激励机制作用条件,并与未考虑声誉效应的委托代理模型进行比较。结果表明:声誉效应在满足一定的条件下,引入声誉激励机制能够增加业主的期望收益,并且能提高监理的努力水平。最后,通过数值仿真模拟验证引入声誉效应的合理性。