社会保障运行效率评价指标体系构建及应用

社会保障的高效运作对于新时期下我国全面深化改革有着非同寻常的意义,文章在充分理解社会保障运作的基础上构建包括5个一级指标和17个二级指标的社会保障运行效率评价指标体系。文章用AHP法对评价指标赋以权重,以我国2007年至2012年社会保障省级数据面板为样本得出分地区社会保障水平的排序,使用随机前沿边界分析对得出的结论加以验证。     

地区产业结构、能源消费与经济增长关系研究

为了探讨地区经济增长与产业结构、能源消费的关系,本文以广东顺德2005—2012年数据为例,利用灰色关联模型对三者进行动态关联分析。结果表明,能源消费总量的快速增长是导致顺德经济增长的主要原因,其次是第二产业占国民经济比值。因此,要加快地区经济的发展,必须率先从改善能源利用效率和调整产业升级开始,大力发展绿色经济,形成合理的能源消费结构,加大可再生能源的开发力度。     

Optimal investment of an insurer with regime-switching and risk constraint

We investigate an optimal investment problem of an insurance company in the presence of risk constraint and regime-switching using a game theoretic approach. A dynamic risk constraint is considered where we constrain the uncertainty aversion to the ‘true’ model for financial risk at a given level. We describe the surplus of an insurance company using a general jump process, namely, a Markov-modulated random measure. The insurance company invests the surplus in a risky financial asset whose dynamics are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion. To incorporate model uncertainty, we consider a robust approach, where a family of probability measures is cosidered and the insurance company maximizes the expected utility of terminal wealth in the ‘worst-case’ probability scenario. The optimal investment problem is then formulated as a constrained two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the insurance company and the market. Different from the other works in the literature, our technique is to transform the problem into a deterministic differential game first, in order to obtain the optimal strategy of the game problem explicitly.     

Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America: Living and Dying by Commodities?

We analyze the dynamic interactions between commodity prices and output growth of the seven biggest Latin American exporters: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Using a novel definition of Markov-switching impulse response functions, we find that the response of each country's output growth to commodity price shocks is time dependent, size dependent, and sign dependent. The major evidence of asymmetries in output growth responses occurs when commodity price shocks lead to regime shifts. Thus, we conclude that the design of optimal countercyclical stabilization policies should consider that the reactions of economic activity vary considerably across business cycle regimes.     

Comparison of Mean-Risk Efficient Portfolios in Asia-Pacific Capital Markets

In order to analyze the performance of mean-risk efficient portfolios, several methods of portfolio comparison have been developed. In this paper we analyze the second-order stochastic dominance efficiency of portfolios on the mean-risk efficient frontier assuming that the risk is represented by standard deviations and concordance matrices set up on the basis of Pearson's linear correlation, Spearman's rho, or Kendall's tau. Empirical analysis of the market returns of selected Asia-Pacific stock markets is carried out considering both the U.S. dollar and euro as reference currencies, and different periods: before and during the subprime crisis. Measures and portfolios on the mean-risk efficiency frontier that should be of interest to at least one risk-averse investor are empirically documented.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

脱实向虚、企业家劳动异质与供给侧结构性改革

融合劳动价值论和新熊彼特增长理论,考虑需求结构升级、企业家劳动异质、经济增长导向三大假设,构建多部门新熊彼特增长模型,并运用31个省份1993—2018年的面板数据进行实证分析,发现“脱实向虚”对经济增长的影响机理是:“脱实向虚”引致企业家创新性劳动减少,生产率参数受阻,经济增长率下降。这使得新古典框架下“从资本向全要素生产率升级的创新性劳动偏向型道路”可能转向“从资本向投机演变的投机性交易劳动偏向型道路”,出现供给侧结构性失衡。只有优先解决“脱实向虚”带来的供给侧结构性失衡,才能回归供给侧的正常资源配置结构,因此,中国供给侧结构性改革的路径不能简单仿效西方进行管制放松或自由化,而应先运用政府之手,构建现代化经济体系,将投机性交易劳动关进“笼子”;进而运用市场之手,优化资源配置,释放创新性劳动的活力。     

经济增长视角下的中国劳动力数量与结构变化

我国劳动年龄人口（15-59岁）已经在2012年呈现负增长,劳动力（20-59岁）数量也将从2016年开始下降,2022年开始,我国劳动力数量则会快速下降。目前劳动供给紧平衡,农村向城镇转移劳动力速度放缓,工资快速上涨,求人倍率连续三年大于1。伴随我国劳动力数量下降,劳动市场将供小于求,影响我国经济增长。文章建议,一方面要提高劳动参与率,降低经济对劳动力数量的依赖,另一方面要提高劳动效率,采取有效措施促进农村就业人口向城镇转移,减少结构性就业矛盾。     

Institutional Environment and Technical Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Cotton Producers in West Africa

This paper examines the effects of the institutional environment on West African cotton farmers’ technical efficiency (TE). First, key aspects of the cotton sector institutional environment are discussed, including input and credit access, and producers’ organisations. Then, a stochastic frontier production function, which incorporates technical inefficiency effects, is applied to farm level data collected in Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. The survey includes farmers’ evaluations of the cotton sector institutional environment. Results suggest that institutional level features influence producers’ TE, besides farm‐level characteristics. Cotton growers who report a negative experience with the joint liability programme, who identify the cotton price mechanism or access to credit as the main constraints to performance, and who cultivate more hectares of cereals are technically more inefficient in producing cotton. Findings suggest that cotton farmers in Mali are less technically efficient in producing cotton than in Burkina Faso and Benin. Agricultural development policies focusing on reducing farmers’ financial stress, particularly through the establishment of adequate price mechanisms (i.e. higher farm‐gate prices and timely payments to farmers) and improvement in the input–credit markets should be encouraged to improve TE in West Africa.