供给侧结构性改革中加强小型水利工程管理能力建设的思路与重点

围绕深化小型水利工程管理体制改革和管护机制创新,以推进供给侧结构性改革为主线,分析当前我国小型水利工程管理能力面临的新形势,结合小型水利工程管理现状及存在的主要问题,探讨供给侧结构性改革中如何加强工程管理单位能力建设,并从供给侧结构性改革角度,提出创新管护模式、拓宽经费渠道、加强农民用水合作组织建设、建立考核评价机制等建议。     

The impact of climate change on labour demand in the plantation sector: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka

Limited opportunities for crop switching and lengthy preharvesting periods make the plantation sector particularly vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, however, the economic consequences of climate change on plantation crops are seldom analysed. Drawing on a unique primary panel data set from a representative cross section of 35 tea estates in Sri Lanka over the period 2002–2014, this study implements a structural model of estate profit maximisation to estimate the elasticity of labour demand with respect to different components of weather. Results indicate a negative relationship between labour demand and rainfall in the south‐west monsoon, the north‐east monsoon and the second inter‐monsoon. A positive relationship is found between labour demand and rainfall in the first inter‐monsoon. Overall, predicted changes in rainfall by 2050 are anticipated to reduce labour demand by approximately 1,175,000 person‐days per year across Sri Lanka's tea plantation sector. This is likely to have considerable social and welfare implications, particularly for the Indian Tamil women who comprise the majority of the sector's workforce.     

供给侧结构性改革视角下的土地整治制度创新初探

研究目的:探讨供给侧结构性改革下土地整治的基本内涵、转型方向及其制度构建。研究方法:文献综述、系统分析。研究结果:(1)土地整治的功能与转型期社会经济发展的需求具有高度一致性,供给侧结构性改革可从制度层面为土地整治转型提供重要思路;(2)土地整治在资金融合、公众参与、资源利用、要素整合、全域规划和动态监管等方面存在明显短板,有效的制度供给是支持土地整治转型的根本途径。研究结论:(1)土地整治的本质是以资源利用效率为落脚点,通过人地关系转型,满足区域协调发展的多层次需求,增加区域整体福利;(2)以"需求评估—规划引导—权益保障—融资共建—标杆管理—科技服务"为一体,联动、协调的区域土地综合整治制度体系,可为新时期土地整治转型提供理论参考。     

水库库区运营管理政策满意度的空间异质性分析

针对水库库区政策体系因自然资源禀赋差异性导致的政策满意度异质问题,引入顾客满意度理论,基于结构方程模型,构建了异质资源禀赋下库区居民政策感知的结构方程模型,揭示水库库区政策满意度空间分异特征,提出异质资源禀赋下水库库区政策制定的对策建议。并以浯溪口水库为例,应用本文研究框架,探究库区居民政策感知偏好的空间分异特征。     

江苏省虚拟水贸易结构调整研究

基于江苏省2012年投入产出表及水资源公报的统计数据,运用修正后的投入产出模型,定量计算江苏省贸易用水强度、虚拟水净输出量,并通过调整贸易结构,最大化实现节水效应。研究表明:2012年江苏省虚拟水贸易整体上呈现净流入,有利于节约省内水资源;从贸易额调整来看,在设定的5%、10%、15%3个调整幅度的基础上改变传统的贸易输出、输入结构,化学产品、煤炭采选产品部门出现大规模节水效应,随着调整幅度的增加,净输出量大的部门节水效应越来越大。江苏省虚拟水贸易是当前实现资源节约与经济发展的重要方式。     

Cultural Consonance in Leisure,Leisure Satisfaction,Life Satisfaction,and Self-Rated Health in Urban Taiwan

The purpose of this study threefold: to determine whether a shared cultural model of the importance of a set of leisure activities to a good leisure life existed in urban Taiwan, the degree to which cultural consonance in leisure mediates the relationship between leisure constraints and leisure satisfaction, and the degree to which leisure satisfaction affects life satisfaction and self-rated health. Results indicate that a cultural model of the importance of leisure activities to a good leisure life existed among sample members. Second, higher levels of self-reported participation in leisure activities that are culturally agreed upon as more important for a good leisure life are more strongly associated with leisure satisfaction than are activities culturally agreed upon as less important. Finally, leisure satisfaction strongly predicts both life satisfaction and self-rated health.     

土地领域供给侧结构性改革的重心和方向

研究目的:分析土地领域供给侧结构性改革的本质,研究提出土地领域供给侧结构性改革的重心和方向。研究方法:基于微观经济学和土地经济学理论,结合中国推进供给侧结构性改革的战略和实践,从中国土地市场的特殊性入手,分析中国土地市场供需信号传导、市场主体构成和市场供需平衡,探求推进土地领域供给侧结构性改革的路径。研究结果:(1)地方政府成为土地市场中的主体并发挥主导作用,形成了中国土地市场的特殊性。政府与市场的进退,关键考量是政府对土地市场的把控能力能否优于建设一个相对竞争充分的土地市场。(2)土地市场供需信号失灵的原因,主要来自于土地要素让渡市场,一方面市场失灵导致企业追求高利润过滤真实需求信号而不受市场之制,另一方面地方政府市场定位放大市场有偏信号,两者共振,形成土地市场整体的有偏预期,共同引起土地市场失衡。研究结论:推进土地领域供给侧结构性改革,(1)关键是引导土地市场向满足公众真实需求的方向转化、生产企业向转变生产方式和发展方向的转变;(2)重点是逐步实现土地征收市场与土地让渡市场的对接,实现土地供需信号畅通传导并有效指导企业开展满足公众需求的生产活动;(3)方向是弱化政府在土地要素让渡市场和征收市场中的市场主体地位,强化并发挥政府在土地市场中的管理、监督和调控的作用;(4)途径是继续强化和充分发挥政府在土地规划、土地市场、土地供应、农地制度改革中的规制作用。     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

模块化结构型旅游调查问卷的设计与应用

常规旅游调查问卷设计在实际调查过程中会产生使用不便的问题,也可能产生一些错误的结果。采用模块化结构型调查问卷设计可避免这些问题的产生。把计算机手段应用到模块化结构问卷调查,使用更为方便,结果更为可靠。     

辽宁省产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究

产业结构与就业结构的协调发展是促进就业和经济持续稳定增长的必然要求,是考察一国或一地区产业结构调整合理化水平的重要指标。针对辽宁省产业结构与就业结构出现的不协调性问题,利用1978-2007年相关数据,采用结构偏离度、就业吸纳弹性等实证分析方法,得出二元经济体制惯性、资本密集型主导、科技含量低等是其形成的主要原因,最后提出了相应的对策建议。