On the Fabrication of Structural Model of Quality System of Urbanization in China

This paper classifies the factors related with the quality system of the urbanization into three dimensions as quality planning, quality realization and quality improvement according to the relationship of their mutual actions. Then it fabricates a three-dimension space structural model. In order to achieve sustainable improvement on urbanization quality improvement, this paper puts forward the measures of controlling the operation of the quality system of urbanization to make it run effectively and smoothly.     

宏观经济变化对利率期限结构的影响机制研究

利率期限结构的变化受到各种宏观经济因素的影响,本文通过建立结构VAR模型,发现宏观经济冲击对不同期限利率水平产生显著影响,但不同冲击产生的影响不同;水平、倾斜和曲度3个因素可以解释90%以上的利率曲线变化,但水平因素的解释能力与成熟市场相比较弱;利用脉冲反应和方差分解,发现实际经济变化主导着利率的倾斜因素和曲度因素的变化,而货币政策是影响利率水平因素变化的主要原因,对其他因素的影响较弱,这一点与发达国家的成熟市场存在较大差别。     

Panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts

This paper considers a Lagrange multiplier (LM) based panel unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both the intercepts and slopes of a series. We note that many popular time series variables are likely to exhibit changing means and/or trends over time. Given that the usual tests will depend on the nuisance parameters indicating the locations of the trend breaks, we adopt a transformation procedure that makes our new panel unit root tests invariant to the nuisance parameters. To illustrate the importance of the power gain provided by our test, we examine the convergence hypothesis using relative ratios of per capita health care expenditures in 20 OECD countries. Our results provide evidence that the convergence hypothesis is supported.     

Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates*

This paper analyzes unemployment rates in the euro area (EA) countries to test for EA-related benefits and economic integration of the EA in the form of lower unemployment rates and unemployment rates convergence. We employ recently developed unit root tests with structural breaks and non-normal errors to analyze the persistence, test the stochastic convergence and locate structural break(s) in EA unemployment rates from 1995q1 to 2016q2. Our results imply a certain degree of unemployment hysteresis in the EA. Even though the results support the stochastic convergence of the majority of EA countries, we find that EA membership is not a sufficient condition for stochastic convergence. Nevertheless, EA-related breaks are followed by the periods of convergence to the EA11 average. Crisis-related breaks are followed by the periods of divergence. Although providing initial benefits, EA is not functioning as an optimal currency area.     

生态园林城市规划理论研究

分析了生态园林城市的概念及提出背景;对园林城市、生态园林城市、生态城市建设理论模式进行了辨析;探讨了生态园林城市规划理念,即整体协调发展理念、综合要素统筹理念、有限目标理念、城市开敞空间管制理念、科学指标体系理念;指出生态园林城市实现生态化的主导途径为城市结构生态化和城市功能生态化;提倡在继承、发展和保护的基础上规划生态园林城市的主体--生态园林绿地系统.     

个体领导力形成因素的实证分析——以军队师团职政工领导干部为例

本文以军队师团职政工领导干部为研究对象,通过问卷调查和定量分析,初步验证:军队政工领导干部的领导力主要有16个因素形成,他们构成二阶层次结构。领导特质可作为领导力形成因素的综合表达,主要可通过三个一解因子——品德与价值观、关键领导能力、核心领导素质予以反映。同时,实证分析结果表明,领导者和非领导者对领导力形成因素的看法没有显著差别。     

中国通货膨胀动态路径的结构性转变及其启示

This article employs recently developed unknown structural break tests to investigate intrinsic structural instability in China inflation dynamics over 1981–2007. In order to capture accurately the statistical nature of potential structural beak, we use asymptotic p-value function under the non-standard distribution condition to compute the p-values for structural change tests in the presence of nuisance parameter. Empirical results suggest that China inflation dynamics witnessed a significant structural change at the end of 1994 and the instability appears to be originated from the dynamic parameters in the underlying model. The paper discusses important policy implications of the empirical findings through impulse response analyses.      

Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence of Fractional Cointegration in an Asymmetric Modeling

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the US government expenditures and revenues using a fractional cointegration framework. In doing so, we permit a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium than in the classical case of cointegration. Moreover, we relax the assumption of a symmetric adjustment process throughout the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) models in the error correction representation of the process. The results show that both individual series are non-stationary I(1) and we do not find evidence of cointegration of any degree. However, if we take into account a structural break at 1973(2), fractional cointegration is found if the underlying process is autocorrelated, especially in the asymmetric modeling.

结构式凯恩斯乘数理论与积极财政政策优化——基于消费矩阵的实证研究

2007年以来中国经济发展的外部环境急剧恶化,如何通过积极财政政策扩大内需成为当前最为关键的问题.国内外的经验和教训表明,积极财政政策发挥效应是有条件的,为了启动处于衰退中的经济,政府不仅需要采取扩张性的政策干预经济,而且由于各部门的乘数效应不同,政府更需要采取结构性的干预政策,通过对不同产业部门的不同支出以改进财政政策效率.文章回顾了国内外在结构式凯恩斯乘数理论领域的研究进展情况,认为结构式乘数的基础研究与应用实践,将为中国政府应对外部冲击和经济衰退风险提供更加科学的分析视角与更加丰富的决策手段.     

部门间生产率差距、劳动力去工业化与结构性减速

基于中国劳动力就业结构出现过快和过早去工业化的迹象,本文从部门间生产率差距的视角,利用多部门一般均衡模型、数值模拟和计量实证分析方法研究发现：（1）理论上,当服务业劳动生产率增长慢于工业,部门间生产率差距将扩大,导致劳动力去工业化速率加快;且部门间生产率差距的存在使得劳动力去工业化对经济增长产生结构性减速效应。服务业部门生产率加快提升,部门间生产率差距将会缩小,从而减缓去工业化速率和降低结构性减速压力;工业部门生产率提升尽管会扩大部门间生产率差距从而加快劳动力去工业化,但在长期中起到均匀化经济增长速率的作用。（2）利用2001—2018年中国省级和城市级面板数据的计量实证分析发现,部门间生产率差距的存在导致劳动力去工业化的效应在全时段样本下显著,但劳动力去工业化对经济增长的结构性减速效应仅在2009—2018年区间样本下显著,表明近年来中国经济增长减速与部门间生产率差距及其导致的劳动力去工业化相关。（3）赶超成功与失败国家的经验比较也表明,工业与服务业部门劳动生产率的改善与协调是跨越中等收入陷阱以及跨越后实现持续赶超的关键。