Crisis and Recovery: What We Have Learned from the South Korean Experience?*

This paper analyzes the process of recovery from the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea, and draws some lessons from it. The fast restoration of financial stability due to early closure of non‐viable financial institutions and quick resolution of non‐performing loans was critical for the speedy recovery of the South Korean economy. The swift adjustment in fiscal and monetary policies in addition to the large depreciation of real exchange rates also supported the fast recovery. Corporate and government bond markets played an important role in the financial restructuring and macroeconomic adjustment process. Structural reforms helped to alleviate the weaknesses in the corporate sector, particularly in chaebol groups. However, the fast recovery also generated unwelcome side‐effects. Because of aggressive fiscal expansion through government‐guaranteed bonds and public credit guarantee programs, sovereign liabilities increased greatly and transparency of the official fiscal stance deteriorated. Thanks to structural reform, corporate and financial sectors began to recognize the importance of micro risk management, but increased risk aversion contributed to the slowdown of corporate investment and, therefore, reduced long‐run growth perspective in South Korea. How to revive long‐term growth rates remains an important question in South Korea despite fast recovery from the crisis.     

Unit roots,postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks

This paper provides evidence on the unit root hypothesis and long-term growth by allowing for two structural breaks. We reject the unit root hypothesis for three-quarters of the countries – approximately 50% more rejections than in models that allow for only one break. While about half of the countries exhibit slowdowns following their postwar breaks, the others have grown along paths that have become steeper over the past 120 years. The majority of the countries, including most of the slowdown countries, exhibit faster growth after their second breaks than during the decades preceding their first breaks. First version received: May 2001/Final version received: January 2002     

城市可持续发展能力与城市竞争力关系的实证研究

文章首先回顾了城市可持续发展和城市竞争力的研究文献,并以209个地市级城市为样本,借助结构方程模型对城市可持续发展能力与城市竞争力的关系进行了实证研究。研究表明,城市可持续发展能力对城市竞争力有正面的影响效应,其标准化值为0.86。文章最后就如何提升城市可持续发展能力进行了探讨。     

利率市场化与商业银行系统性风险——基于结构异质性视角的实证分析

基于2009年第1季度至2020年第1季度我国14家上市商业银行的面板数据,采用动态面板模型实证检验了利率市场化对商业银行系统性风险的影响,并从所有制属性、经营规模、发展机遇期等三个方面进行结构异质性分析。研究结果表明：利率市场化明显加剧了商业银行系统性风险,经过一系列的稳健性检验,上述结论依然成立;在利率市场化进程的冲击之下,国有银行、经营规模较大的商业银行以及2007年之后上市的商业银行的系统性风险受到的影响更小。基于研究结论,对深化利率市场化改革、完善利率风险预警体系等提出相应的政策建议。     

《德伯家的苔丝》悲剧成因探析

托马斯·哈代在《德伯家的苔丝》小说中饱含激情地塑造了苔丝这一悲剧艺术典型,揭示了造成苔丝悲 剧的主要原因是资产阶级国家机器和宗教的迫害、传统伦理道德观念的摧残及其性格的弱点等合力。     

上市公司智力资本对财务绩效的影响研究——基于Pulic模型的实证分析

通过分析我国1 177家上市公司2003~2005年的相关数据,对企业智力资本与财务绩效的关系进行了实证研究,得出企业的人力资本效率和有形资产效率与财务绩效具有正的相关性的结论,并对我国企业的智力资本管理提出建议。     

实施逆向物流阻碍因素的解释结构建模研究

以解释结构建模（ISM）为分析工具。对阻碍因素进行了系统的分析，将其分为：驱动型阻碍因素，独立型阻碍因素，依赖型阻碍因素，关联型阻碍因素；在此基础上，建立起阻碍企业实施逆向物流各要素间的结构模型；从该模型可以看出哪些是应该给予足够重视的主要因素，以及各因素之间的相互依赖关系，在逆向物流的决策和实施方面，为企业提供科学的依据：最后，对未来的研究进行了讨论。     

保险周期的影响因素分析——基于全球范围保险公司面板数据的研究

现有理论研究从已有损失经验、承保能力约束和一般经济因素三方面解释保险周期产生的原因,而已有实证检验多使用某一个国家(地区)的加总时间序列数据进行分析。本文使用2007～2016年全球各国保险公司的财务面板数据,构建差分模型进行面板固定效应回归,检验现有主流的解释保险周期假说的成立性,并验证高收入国家(地区)和中低收入国家(地区)的保险周期在传导机制上是否存在结构性差异。实证结果表明,已有损失经验是保险周期的显著影响因素,且该因素在高收入国家(地区)与中低收入国家(地区)之间不存在结构性差异,而承保能力约束对保险周期的影响在高收入国家(地区)与中低收入国家(地区)之间存在结构性差异。本文使用企业层面数据对几种主流理论模型解释加以实证检验,更加切合理论模型的行为假设,同时本文所构建的结构性差异差分模型揭示了中低收入国家(地区)保险周期与高收入国家(地区)的差异性。     

The link between personality,aggressive driving,and risky driving outcomes – testing a theoretical model

This study tested a theoretical model of the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors, aggressive driving and ‘risky driving outcomes’ (accidents, traffic tickets, and license suspension). It also tested the mediation effect of aggressive driving in the relationship between the five factor personality model and risky driving outcomes. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the 293 participants’ responses. Bivariate correlations showed that aggressive driving was negatively related to emotional stability, agreeableness, and conscientiousness and positively related to risky driving outcomes. Agreeableness was negatively related to accidents, tickets, and license suspension. Conscientiousness was negatively related to tickets. The structural model was supported by data in which agreeableness predicted risky driving outcomes. Emotional stability, agreeableness, and conscientiousness predicted aggressive driving, which in turn predicted risky driving outcomes. Aggressive driving was shown to be a mediator in the relationship between agreeableness and risky driving outcomes.     

Modeling Time-Varying Correlations in Volatility Between BRICS and Commodity Markets

This article investigates the asymmetric and long memory volatility properties and dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese, and South African (BRICS) stock markets and commodity (gold and oil) futures markets, using the trivariate DCC-fractionally integrated asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIAPARCH) model. We identify significant asymmetric and long memory volatility properties and DCCs for pairs of BRICS stock and commodity markets, and variability in DCCs and Markov Switching regimes during economic and financial crises. Finally, we analyze optimal portfolio weights and time-varying hedge ratios, demonstrating the importance of overweighting optimal portfolios between BRICS stock and commodity assets.