Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.     

企业因素对产业集群国际化的影响研究——基于企业感知视角

集群企业作为产业集群的最重要组成主体,在产业集群国际化中扮演着重要的角色。基于企业感知视角,通过文献研究提炼出对产业集群国际化产生影响的企业因素,并通过探索性因素分析将其划分为企业内向性因素和企业外向性因素,并借助产业集群国际化衡量因素,构建结构方程模型(SEM)进行实证研究。研究发现企业内向性因素和企业外向性因素都能够对产业集群国际化产生显著的正向影响,且前者在产业集群国际化过程中发挥着更大的作用。同时,企业因素各个指标在产业集群国际化中的作用也有所不同,据此提出相关改进建议。     

The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on international trade flows: evidence from G20 countries

This study examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on trade using gravity model with a Quandt–Andrews test for detection of structural break with G20 countries data. The structural break on international trade took place in 2003 that is around 1 year after the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords which includes the detailed implementation rules of the Kyoto Protocol. According to estimation results, this study can support the negative effect of environmental regulations on trade flows.     

Determinants of risk behaviour: effects of perceived risks and risk attitude on farmer’s adoption of risk management strategies

The importance of risk perception and risk attitude for understanding individual’s risk behaviour are independently well described in literature, but rarely combined in an integrated approach. In this study, we propose a model assuming the choice to implement certain risk management strategies to be directly driven by both perceptions of risks and risk attitude. Other determinants influence the intention to apply different risk strategies mainly indirectly, mediated by risk perception and risk attitude. This conceptual model is empirically tested, using structural equation modelling, for understanding the intention of farmers to implement different common risk management strategies at their farms. Data are gathered in a survey completed by 500 farmers from the Flanders region in Belgium, investigating attitudes towards farming, perceived past exposure to risk, socio-demographic characteristics, farm size, perceptions of the major sources of farm business risk, risk attitudes and the intention to apply common risk management strategies. Our major findings are: (i) perception of major farm business risks have no significant impact on the intention of applying any of the risk strategies under study, (ii) risk attitude does have a significant impact. Therefore, rather than objective risk faced and the subjective interpretation thereof, it is the general risk attitude that influence intended risk strategies to be implemented. A distinction can be made between farmers willing to take risk, who are more inclined to apply ex-ante risk management strategies and risk averse farmers who are less inclined to implement ex-ante risk management strategies but rather cope with the consequences and diminish their effects ex-post when risks have occurred.     

The Future is in the Past: Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high‐performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20 years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6.02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8 percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross‐country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that: (i) the value‐added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; (ii) the value‐added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; (iii) both the value‐added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.     

国际著名管理学类英语论文标题特征研究

本文对管理学类国际著名的5本期刊的英语论文标题的结构及用词特征进行了研究。为此,本文建立了一个100个标题的语料库,随机抽取了Administrative Science Quarterly,Journal of Management Studies,Journal of Management,Strategic Management Journal和The Academy of Management Journal中各20个标题。结论表明管理学类论文标题有其自身的结构和用词特点。研究的意义在于为国内同行撰写管理学英语论文标题提供参考。     

Excess stock returns and news: evidence from European markets

This paper aims at decomposing the forecast error variance of excess returns in five major European stock markets into the variance of news about future excess returns, dividends and real interest rates. Special emphasis is given on the issue of stationarity and structural breaks in the unconditional mean of dividend yields and their implications for variance decompositions. Empirical results indicate that in some markets the dividend yield is subject to structural breaks in the mean. Evidence from Monte Carlo simulations suggests that this kind of structural breaks cause small-sample bias in variance decompositions of a magnitude comparable to bias introduced by unit roots. Our results constitute a warning about return decompositions that, in particular, use variables in the forecasting equations that may be nonstationary or contain a structural break.     

Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China

We investigate whether China’s experience during 1952–2004 supports the balanced growth entailment of the neoclassical growth model. Estimation of long-run relations among output, consumption and investment for the full period reject the balanced growth hypothesis for both the national and regional economies. When the economic reforms of the late 1970s are modelled as a structural break by the methods of Johansen et al. (Economet J 3(2):216–249, 2000) and Perron (Econometrica 57(6):1361–1401, 1989), we find some evidence of balanced growth in the pre-break period but in the post-break period the ‘great ratios’ are trend-stationary, precluding fully balanced growth, though permitting a common (stochastic) productivity trend.      

石材干挂法施工技术在建筑装饰工程中的运用

石材干挂法作为一种新型施工工艺得到了大量的推广。文章介绍了石材干挂法的施工工艺、施工方法及质量控制要点,以及对石材规格、钢架材料、干挂件、结构胶等材料的具体要求。     

基于关系风险的物流外包风险实证研究

通过结构模型假设和样本调查,研究了关系风险如何影响物流供应商受托的资产和胜任能力,在统计分析的基础上,找出了导致物流外包关系破裂的潜在风险因素以及其结构关系,并利用信度、效度检测方法和测量模型测试了研究结果。研究发现,物流外包中关系风险对资产风险、胜任能力风险以及资产风险对胜任能力风险有积极显著的影响,且能力风险的影响比资产风险稍微显著。研究还发现,物流服务供应商缺乏维持较好的运输经营和损失控制能力是批发商最直接相关的风险;资产风险与能力风险显著正相关,与内部治理成本相比,批发商更关心不可估量的专用资产。