影响人民币实际汇率长期趋势的因素研究

本文对人民币实际汇率的长期变动趋势进行了实证研究。通过协整模型构建了实际汇率与劳动生产率、政府消费和贸易条件之间长期的均衡关系，并通过误差修正模型考察了实际汇率短期内的动态调整过程。结果表明，无论在短期还是长期，生产率的变动对人民币实际汇率的变动都起着最重要的作用，但是对实际汇率的变动方向与巴一萨效应预测的相反。这可能是因为中国的经济发展阶段不适用其假设，劳动力的无限供给、政府消费和贸易条件等其他因素亦影响着人民币实际汇率的变动趋势，说明即使是在长期内，巴一萨效应的假设也不能成立。政府能够通过财政支出来影响实际汇率短期波动和长期变动趋势，从而影响我国产品在国际上的价格竞争优势。     

产业结构、就业贡献率与就业增长——基于云南省第三产业的实证

通过产业结构偏离度的分解和比较,对云南第三产业就业进行实证分析,较充分论证了云南第三产业还有很大的吸纳就业的潜力,并指出了就业有效增长的第三产业内部行业的选择.研究表明:(1)近10年,云南一、二、三产业的就业贡献率分别为27.8%、2.2%、69.9%,新增就业岗位的69.9%由第三产业提供,第三产业产值每增长1个百分点,平均增加就业岗位就达1.56万个,比第二产业多0.9万个;(2)云南第三产业在发展的同时没有充分发挥其吸纳就业的能力,还有很大的就业吸纳空间;(3)批发零售贸易餐饮业、社区服务业将是云南第三产业扩大就业的主要行业,而交通运输仓储及邮电通信业则很难有较大吸纳就业的空间.     

家族企业产权制度变迁路径

国内外家族企业发展的历史证明。产权的逐渐多元化和社会化是必然趋势。单一的产权结构不仅限制了家族企业筹集资金的能力。而且限制了家族企业的人才结构，无法满足企业扩展的要求。因此，对于处在扩张阶段的我国家族企业而言，必须突破产权关。实现家族企业的产权变迁。     

A Spatial Structural Decomposition Analysis of Chinese and Japanese Energy Demand: 1985–1990

This paper proposes a spatial structural decomposition analysis to measure the effects of the changes in intra- and inter-country linkages on the embodied energy demand in the concerned country. For the empirical analysis, we have used the China- Japan inter-country input–output tables for 1985 and 1990, expressed in constant prices of 1990. The empirical results reveal that (1) at least for the period between 1985 and 1990, the effects of the non-competitive input structural changes in China on the primary energy requirements of Japan were negligible, and (2) the contribution of the Japanese final demand shifts on the total change in Chinese primary energy demand was 40 times larger than that of the Chinese final demand shifts on the primary energy requirements of Japan. The Japanese policy makers should concentrate on the energy impacts of the changes in the domestic production structure rather than the changes in the Chinese production structure.     

基于制度变迁理论的政府投资项目管理模式探讨

运用制度变迁理论，分析了我国政府投资项目管理模式的制度需求、中央政府和地方政府在政府投资项目管理模式制度变迁中的主体地位、强制性和诱导性两种制度变迁方式，强调在制度创新过程中应当注意制度变迁效率。     

New Technology in Unionized Firms: Advantages of Mandatory Bargaining

U.S. Labor Law currently allows employers whose work forces are unionized to introduce new technologies without bargaining over the decision to do so. This forces unions to adopt inefficient strategies when negotiating collective bargaining agreements in an effort to minimize the impact of technological change on their members. Allowing unions to bargain over the decision to introduce new technologies would obviate their having to resort to these inefficient strategies. In addition, it might increase the likelihood of employees suggesting alterations in production processes that would increase the rate of technological change. For these reasons, this article advocates amending U.S. labor law to require employers to bargain over the introduction of new technologies.     

农民工的社会网络变迁

采用系统模式研究了进城农民工的社会网络重构过程,指出随着谋生方式由农业生产向非农产业的转移,进城农民工正在逐步建立起以业缘关系为基础的新的社会纽带,并使之成为其社会网络的重要组成部分.这些由进城农民工一手构建的社会关系网络正在成为他们在城市生活中赖以生存和发展的重要资本.     

论制度变迁的成本约束

制度变迁的关键是成本约束，这是制度本身产生的根本性要求。制度变迁是成本和收益相权衡和比较的产物，制度设计和安排必须充分考虑到制度变迁的成本和收益，减少制度变迁的阻力，提高制度运行的效率。     

中国航空货运顾客价值动因的实证研究

通过考察中国航空货运,建立航空顾客价值的决定因素与动态性理论模型,运用结构方程方法对其检验,结果表明:时间因素和便捷性因素是影响货运顾客价值的核心要素,价格因素已退之其次,而且来自竞争者、服务商、顾客、宏观环境的变化都对顾客价值动态性有显著影响。     

Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R&D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R&D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does.