Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Unit Roots, Co-integration and Long Memory in the US and the UK

This paper deals with the relationship between the balance of trade and the exchange rate in the US/UK case. Many authors have studied this issue for many countries, but despite the intensive research, there is still no agreement about the effectiveness of currency devaluation to increase a country's balance of trade. We first analyse the relationship between the two variables using unit roots and co-integration methods, and the results are ambiguous. We try a new approach based on fractional integration. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in case of the trade balance in favour of smaller orders of integration, while this hypothesis is not rejected for the exchange rate. Thus, the two series do not possess the same order of integration. We sort this problem out by taking the exchange rate as an exogenous variable, and including it in a regression model where the residuals might follow a fractionally integrated model.     

Option exercise with temptation

This paper adopts the Gul and Pensendorfer self-control utility model to analyze an agent’s option exercise decision under uncertainty over an infinite horizon. The agent decides whether and when to do an irreversible activity. He is tempted by immediate gratification and suffers from self-control problems. The cost of self-control lowers the benefit from continuation or stopping and may erode the option value of waiting. When applied to the investment and exit problems, the model can generate the behavior of procrastination and preproperation. In addition, unlike the hyperbolic discounting model, the model here provides a unique prediction. I thank Drew Fudenberg, Bart Lipman, Neng Wang, and participants in the BU theory lunch workshop and in the Canadian Economic Theory Conference 2005 for helpful discussions. I am especially grateful for valuable suggestions from an anonymous referee and coeditor Steve Williamson. The BU ISP Seed Grant has supported this research.     

杭州城市核心竞争力的分析与比较

城市核心竞争力是一座城市特有的、其它城市在短期内难以复制或模仿的比较优势和竞争优势.充分认识与准确判断一座城市的核心竞争力,是有效提升城市竞争力的重要前提,对促进城市经济社会可持续发展具有重要的意义.文章通过基于城市核心竞争力主要指标的纵向分析和基于网络层次分析方法的横向比较,对杭州城市核心竞争力做出了基本判断.认为城市核心竞争力是经济主体创新能力与杭州特质资源优势、朝阳产业优势有机结合而形成的有效配置资源的能力.     

北部湾(广西)经济区引进外资金融机构探讨

广西区政府在2006年3月做出了加快北部湾(广西)经济区开放开发的重大战略决策,该地区是"中国——东盟博览会"永久举办地——南宁市的所在地,与东盟各国毗邻,水路、陆路和航空交通十分便利,有着得天独厚的地缘优势,但是随着该地区经济发展的加速,对金融支持的需求量越来越大,同时为了提高本地区的金融环境服务水平,很有必要引进外资金融机构进驻。本文在分析目前广西引进外资金融机构存在不足的基础上,探讨一些有利于加快本地区引进外资金融机构的建议。     

The (S,s) Policy is an Optimal Trading Strategy in a Class of Commodity Price Speculation Problems

This paper introduces a model of commodity price speculation and proves that the optimal trading strategy is of the (S,s) form when a no expected loss condition holds. A strong form of this condition is that the retail price charged to consumers at time t exceeds the expected wholesale price of the commodity at time t+1, i.e. , where β ∈(0,1) is the speculator’s discount factor. We are extremely grateful to Herbert Scarf for pointing out an important error in a previous draft of this paper and for suggesting the key argument in a revised proof that fixed the problem. We also benefited from helpful feedback from an anonymous referee, William Brainard, Zvi Eckstein, participants of seminars at Yale, the Operations Research Center at MIT, and the Econometric Society Winter School at the Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi.     

How trade in ecotourism services can save nature: a policy scenario analysis

This article considers a developing country which is abundant in a non-renewable natural resource but scarce in industrial goods. The resource can be used for consumption or for exporting ecotourism services. The article examines scenarios in which technical progress, rising demand for tourism services and higher preferences for the environment reduce today's optimal depletion of the resource. Myopic behaviour and future terms-of-trade gains, however, encourage overexploitation of the resource. As a remedy, the article derives the socially optimal subsidy for the conservation of the resource and discusses North–South transfer schemes which save nature via trade in ecotourism services. Numerical examples suggest that under optimistic assumptions a subsidy rate of about 10% would suffice to preserve the natural resource in the developing country for the provision of tourism services. The resulting cost burden would represent less than 0.03% of the Northern GDP.     

Accounting,Remuneration and Employee Motivation in the New Organisation

The paper draws upon two detailed case studies of global manufacturing companies to examine the role of accounting in redesigned remuneration systems which are emerging as organisations delayer their structures, change their production methods and move to team-based systems of work and reward. In this way, changes in the content and application of accounting measures are framed within new approaches to rewarding and motivating employees that have been stimulated by efforts to develop alternative, ‘leaner’ manufacturing practices. The focus is principally upon the remuneration of shopfloor employees, but we also consider the implications of team-based reward systems for managerial staff. We argue that despite the recent complementing of financial with non-financial forms of reward (e.g. skill acquisition, improvements to health and safety), and an emphasis upon peer pressure from team members in addition to individual incentives as a source of motivation, the language and calculations of accounting remain central and pervasive in developing, justifying and mobilising support for the new reward system.     

Premium and reinsurance control of an ordinary insurance system with liabilities driven by a fractional Brownian motion

This paper investigates the problem of premium and reinsurance control of an ordinary insurance system when liabilities are driven by a fractional Brownian motion. The reserve equation is considered using two alternative routes: the first with no reinsurance option, and the second with some controllable proportional reinsurance coverage. Recent results from the theory of fractional linear-quadratic control (fractional calculus) are discussed, partially extended and utilized to derive compact analytical formulae for the optimal functionals of the safety loading (consequently for the respective premium rate), and the volume of the retained risk (or equivalently, for the proportion of the reinsurance coverage).     

The self-organisation of strategic alliances

This paper is based upon an analysis of various experiences of electronic commerce. It analyzes the role of private institutions in the organization of systems of transactions. Private institutions take place between public institutions (that are insufficiently specialized) and inter-individual governance structures (that do not benefit from scale and cognitive economies). These private institutions are very diverse and the paper points out the various types of services provided by diverse institutions depending on their constitutional mode.

While various possible institutional frameworks have very different features in terms of coordination, there is no most efficient institutional environment. Moreover, the emergence process of these institutional framework strongly influences their ability to survive. Very different institutional frameworks can therefore organize electronic trade quite differently in the various industries