Modelling spillovers between stock market and FX market: evidence for Nigeria

Abstract

The need to capture the foreign exchange (FX) and stock markets nexus in Nigeria is underscored by the rapidly expanding financial markets integration due to trade and financial liberalization policies which seem to have enhanced the inflow of capital as well as accelerated investment/business interactions. Using variants of the VARMA-AMGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti, and Chan (2009), we find that volatility persistence in the stock market is accentuated by bad news in the market and moderated by good news in the FX market. Finally, we establish that ignoring the asymmetric effects may exaggerate the spillover results.     

工程管理硕士培养对比分析及路径探究

社会发展带动工程管理领域发展,促进企业对工程管理类人才的需求,进一步导致工程管理硕士（MEM）在人才培养计划中占据重要地位。基于现有文献及研究,对比分析国内外工程管理硕士发展历程,为工程管理硕士的培养提供思路。通过对比分析国内各高校工程管理硕士的培养模式及培养内容,构建教学质量保障体系PDCA管理循环结构,进一步丰富和完善MEM人才培养体系。同时提出MEM项目的优化路径,为MEM人才培养的各个环节的实践提供依据和保障。     

全面对外开放与区域协调发展:基于价值链互动视角

本文通过构建包含国内价值链(NVC)与全球价值链(GVC)联动的多区域投入产出模型,界定和区分了外需对中国国内各区域在GVC和NVC中增加值收益及增值能力的影响,进而分析了外需对国内区域垂直分工和协调发展的促进作用。结果发现,首先,1997-2012年外需对中国各区域增加值收益攀升具有显著促进作用,其中欧、美、日等发达经济体的拉动作用占主导地位但呈快速减弱趋势,而发展中经济体和世界其他地区(ROW)的拉动作用明显提升,这为中国全面对外开放战略的实施提供了经验依据。其次,外需驱动下中国东部沿海、南部沿海和京津地区在增加值收益快速提高的同时却陷入了NVC增值能力不足甚至为负的困境,而中西部地区受益于外需驱动下的国际和国内垂直分工效应增值能力得以提升。此外,我们还利用结构路径分析方法识别了外需对区域间增加值流转的生产层级特征以及关键生产路径分布,为价值链互动视角下中国分区域-分阶段的产业升级路径提供了有益参考和启示。     

Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility

Using monthly data from 1973 through 2020, we explore whether it is possible to improve the accuracy of one-month ahead log-aggregate equity return realized volatility point forecasts by conditioning on various nonlinear crude oil price measures widely relied on in the literature. When evaluating the evidence of unconditional relative equal predictive ability as specified in Diebold and Mariano (1995), we observe that similar to well-known economic variables, such as the dividend yield, the default yield spread and the rate of inflation, we rarely observe evidence of statistical gains in relative point forecast accuracy in favor of the crude oil price-based models. However, when evaluating the evidence of conditionalrelative equal predictive ability as specified in Giacomini and White (2006), we observe that contrary to well-known economic predictors, certain nonlinear crude oil price variables, such as the one-year net crude oil price increase suggested in Hamilton (1996) offer sizable point forecast accuracy gains relative to the benchmark. These statistical gains can also be translated into economic gains.     

机翼后缘电磁散射特性分析

采用多层快速多极子方法分析了梯形机翼后缘行波电磁散射和极化特性。针对机翼后缘半径和机翼展长等关键设计参数,建立了变参数模型并进行了多方案仿真分析,讨论了后缘半径和展长参数对机翼后缘行波在前向角域产生波峰的变化规律和散射量级。最后针对机翼后缘应用吸波材料的方案进行了计算分析,结果证明在机翼后缘应用吸波材料可以有效减缩后缘产生的行波散射。     

止咳水中31种常见毒品成分的快速测定

止咳水试样用50%甲醇水溶液超声提取,经有机滤膜过滤后,利用液相色谱-串联质谱(LC-MS/MS)进行检测,建立了止咳水中31种毒品成分的快速测定方法。分析物采用电喷雾离子源(ESI),正离子多反应监测(MRM)模式检测,外标法定量。可待因等28种组分在2~50μg/L浓度范围内线性关系良好,检出限在0.2~2μg/L范围内,在10~50μg/L添加浓度范围内回收率为80.1%~109%;大麻酚、四氢大麻酚、大麻二酚物质在10~200μg/L浓度范围内线性关系良好,检出限均为4μg/L,在50~250μg/L添加浓度范围内回收率为81.2%~109%;化合物的相对标准偏差(RSD)为1.7%~14.4%。所建立的方法灵敏度高,简便快捷,稳定性好,可用于止咳水中毒品类物质的定性鉴定及定量分析,为该类物质的快速检测提供技术支撑。     

Reverse takeover: the moderating role of family ownership

The aim of this study was to analyse the determinants of reverse takeovers, examining the influence of target firm shareholders’ type in the agreement. We examine reverse takeovers implemented in the Alternative Investment Market between 1999 and 2012, paying special attention to the differences between family and non-family target firms, as well as the impact of the financial crisis.

We propose that family firms have a lower probability of accepting a reverse takeover (‘shell’ firm), to avoid both diluting the ownership structure (loss of control) and new shareholders entering their firm. Our main findings show that the higher the percentage of ownership held by family holders, the lower the probability of their being the target firm in a reverse takeover. This effect is maintained during the crisis period, in accordance with the expectation that family firms will have fewer financial constraints.     

国内外典型科技金融模式研究

科技与金融是推动社会经济发展的两大主要推动力,二者相互结合的科技金融也成为经济转型升级的突破点。本文分析了以资本为主导、银行为主导与政府为主导的三种典型科技金融模式,通过典型案例分析并借鉴其科技金融模式的经验,提出了发展我国科技金融的相关政策建议。     

Modelling of combinable relationship-based composition service network and the theoretical proof of its scale-free characteristics

Existing works on service composition are primarily based on the requirements of service composition, such as describing language supporting service composition, service composition framework, mechanism and method for service composition, and service composition validation. Few works have been carried out from the perspective of combinable relationship among composite services and composition service network. This article emphasises on combinable relationship-based composition service network, i.e. CoRCS-Net. The principles for establishing and modelling CoRCS-Net were studied, and nine combinable relationships among services in CoRCS-Net were investigated and 14 elementary evolving operators for CoRCS-Net dynamic evolution were designed. According to the definition of scale-free network (SFN) and the investigations on its related research achievements, it is supposed that ‘CoRCS-Net is a scale-free network’ in this study. In order to prove the theoretical hypothesis, the concepts of combinable strength and variation of combinable strength were introduced, and combinable strength is used to describe the invoking times of a service being invoked for service composition. First we calculate the real time variation of combinable strength of an arbitrary service in CoRCS-Net, and then obtain the corresponding real time combinable strength and investigate its distribution for all services in CoRCS-Net. It is discovered that ‘like many nature and social phenomenon, CoRCS-Net is “scale-free”, and it is constructed by few “active services” and a great deal of “silent services”. In the process of service composition, the invoking times for majority services are very small, while only few services are invoked frequently, and the probability (or invoking times) for the services in a CoRCS-Net to be invoked for service composition decays as a power-law’.     

How Do Developmental and Accommodative HRM Enhance Employee Engagement and Commitment? The Role of Psychological Contract and SOC Strategies

In the context of the changing workforce, this study introduced two perspectives on HRM and distinguished universalistic developmental HRM from contingent accommodative HRM. We predicted two separate pathways for the effects on two employee outcomes: work engagement and affective commitment. We expected that developmental HRM would universally relate to employee outcomes by rebalancing the psychological contract between the employee and organization into a less transactional to a more relational contract. We also predicted that accommodative HRM would relate to outcomes only when fulfilling specific needs of employees, associated with their selecting, optimizing, and compensating strategies. Results of a multilevel study among 1058 employees in 17 healthcare units fully supported our expectations regarding the role of the psychological contract. Additionally, we found support for the expected roles of selection and compensation, but not for optimization strategy. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that HRM relates to employee outcomes through multiple pathways, which can be either universal or contingent.