空间目标的联合矩阵束极点估计

极点作为谐振区雷达目标的最主要电磁特性，具有很大的空间目标识别前景。但是在使用频域观测数据提取目标极点时，存在虚假极点和估计精度问题。针对上述问题，首先通过加窗和截断改进了后时响应信号的获取流程，抑制了虚假极点影响；然后采用最小描述长度法（MDL）估计极点个数，避免了定阶错误引起的虚假极点；最后采用联合矩阵束法估计极点，有效减少了单角度数据估计极点时存在的遗漏极点和虚假极点问题。FEKO软件验证表明，所提算法具有更高的精度和抗噪能力。     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

Cost savings from trajectory deviations in the European air space

Air transport deregulation has lead to an increase of air traffic, together with a reduction of air fares. Air fare reduction has narrowed operational margins of airlines, bringing financial and employment instability. This has brought airlines to pay increasing attention to flying costs reduction. Two important components of flying costs airlines can try to cut modifying the planned flight are en route charges and operational costs. We rely on Demand Data Repository (DDR2) data to calculate deviations from planned flight trajectories to analyse the extent to what airlines try to cut operational costs making shorter flights than planned if possible, and cut en route charges providing a planned flight with lower en route charges than the planned flight. Our findings show that there is no generalised strategy among airlines to reduce en-route charges asking for deviations of the planned route. On the other hand, airlines are achieving savings of operational costs regularly. Higher savings per nautical mile are obtained in night flights, with longer planned distance and operated by low cost carriers.     

管理层收购与政府规制的关系分析

文章从我国管理层收购存在的问题、政府规制管理层收购的现状等入手,进一步阐述管理层收购与政府规制之间的关系,分析政府时管理层收购规制的目标以及政府规制管理层收购的转变。     

AHP在第三方物流服务商选择中的应用

第三方物流供应商的选择是企业物流外包中的一个关键问题,有效地评价方法是正确选择第三方物流服务供应商的前提。我们应该采用合理、有效地评价方法对其进行综合评价,才能保证选择结果的科学性。文章运用AHP确定第三方物流服务商评价指标权重,并通过定量与定性相结合的方法对第三方物流服务商进行评价,使企业对第三方物流服务商的选择更为科学、合理。     

Unstable Inflation Targets

This paper studies long‐run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment. When central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated, agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares. Inflation targets can lead agents' beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels. First, implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting. Second, there can be nearly self‐fulfilling inflation, disinflation, or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks. Policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed.     

“机会主义”策略及其在我国财政政策规则中的运用?

财政政策既要发挥内在的自动稳定器功能,又要体现政府的政策意图,具有与“机会主义”策略一致的内涵。文章将“机会主义”策略融入财政政策规则,对我国财政政策对通胀和产出的调节是否表现出“机会主义”策略进行了研究,得到的主要结论可以概括为：我国财政政策对通胀和经济增长目标值的关注表现出较强的时变性,且其对经济增长的调节依赖于对经济增速中间目标的偏离程度。当经济增速与中间目标的偏离位于区间[-0.95%,2.85%]内时,财政政策将发挥内生的自动稳定器功能,表现出较强的惰性;而当经济增速与其中间目标的偏离位于该区间外时,财政政策则表现出较强的活性,会对经济增长产生积极的调节作用。     

欧美农产品价格支持政策的演变与启示

欧美农产品最低价格和目标价格在农产品市场供求关系、进出口政策和政府财政能力等约束之下,长期密切配合,共同促进了欧美农产品产量和农民收入的稳定增长。保护性收购方式下的最低价格干扰了市场价格的形成,非保护性收购方式下的最低价格对市场价格的形成没有影响,目标价格有效维护了供求关系决定价格的市场机制。最低价格和目标价格的使用与农产品供求状况没有必然联系,而最低价格的执行方式由农业资源禀赋和农产品供求关系决定。我国农产品的最低收购价抬高了市场价格,但其“拖市”功能有利于稳定农产品生产,而目标价格的反周期功能可稳定农民收入。因此,为保障国家粮食安全,我国不能以农产品目标价格取代最低价格,而应分品种施策不同的农产品价格支持政策。     

代理人产出影响因素调查分析

本文作者在进行针对代理人的问卷调查的基础上,对影响代理人产出的各个影响因素进行了统计分析,并进一步与历史调查结论进行比较,讨论影响代理人产出的各个影响因素及其变化,以及这些调查数据分析结论对保险个人代理人的招聘工作的理论借鉴。