基于价值创造的物流业颠覆性创新系统分析

在对颠覆性创新理论再认识的基础上,对现有研究的不足之处进行了评论,并从价值创造角度构建了一个用于颠覆性创新的分析框架,在此框架基础上,进而对物流业颠覆性创新进行了系统分析。     

‘Not to bet the farm’: SANLAM and internationalisation, 1995–2010

The South African Life Assurance Company (SANLAM) entered global markets after 1990, with varied success. Contextual pressures exerted a ‘push’ on financial services companies, which led to strategic changes in firm strategy, structure and performance. Theories of internationalisation afford more attention to industrial production internationalisation. This article explores the SANLAM experiences with internationalisation since the early 1990s. Initial internationalisation attempts were less successful, leading to strategic business changes, which led to a change in the globalisation strategy and more success in alternative markets. This article explores the different stages of SANLAM’s internationalisation strategy and what determined eventual success. The article contextualises the SANLAM internationalisation strategy by drawing on aspects of the process theory, the Matthews Linkage, Leverage and Learning (LLL) framework, and the Strategy, Structure, Organisation and Performance (SSOP) analytical framework. The SANLAM case underlines the crucial role of tacit knowledge of the host market as prerequisite for successful globalisation strategies of financial services’ firms.     

Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model

This paper evaluates the standard empirical methods employed in the study of foreign aid, when the data generating process is a calibrated stochastic growth model in which aid recipients make optimal investment and consumption decisions. When recipients receive a stochastic flow of aid and wish to smooth consumption, standard methods fail to distinguish between the response to transient and permanent aid shocks, and hence yield misleading results concerning the object of interest to policy makers: the long-run impact of aid.     

Methods for Scalar‐on‐Function Regression

Recent years have seen an explosion of activity in the field of functional data analysis (FDA), in which curves, spectra, images and so on are considered as basic functional data units. A central problem in FDA is how to fit regression models with scalar responses and functional data points as predictors. We review some of the main approaches to this problem, categorising the basic model types as linear, non‐linear and non‐parametric. We discuss publicly available software packages and illustrate some of the procedures by application to a functional magnetic resonance imaging data set.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

Activation and variation of the United Nation’s cluster coordination model: a comparative analysis of the Haiti and Japan disasters

The coordinated response to extreme events is critical as illustrated by recent disasters in Haiti and Japan. As a way for coordinated provision of international humanitarian assistance to disaster-hit countries, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) developed cluster coordination model (CCM). With content analysis and network analysis of OCHA situation reports, this study checked four premises regarding activation of CCM, interaction between national and international actors, roles of proximity country, and level of cluster coordination. This study found that there were meaningful variations in implementing the CCM for 2010 Haiti and 2011 Japan disasters. From the analyses, we found that the current CCM may be vulnerable to black swan disasters; thus, extensive and active estimation of national disaster management capacities should be conducted to prevent collapse of national disaster management system. However, the reconciliation of state sovereignty and international humanitarian assistance also should be considered.     

Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

Forecasting GDP growth is important and necessary for Chinese government to set GDP growth target. To fully and efficiently utilize macroeconomic and financial information, this paper attempts to forecast China's GDP growth using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data. The dynamic factor model is first applied to select dynamic predictors among large amount of monthly macroeconomic and daily financial data and then the mixed data sampling regression is applied to forecast quarterly GDP growth based on the selected monthly and daily predictors. Empirical results show that forecasts using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data have better accuracy comparing to traditional forecasting methods. Moreover, forecasts with leads and forecast combination can further improve forecast performance.     

高校贷款融资风险评估与预警模型研究

创新高校贷款风险评估与预警模型,共筑财务系统"防火墙"。通过深入剖析高校债务风险凸显成因、影响路径及其特殊性,探索建立一套系统性强、涵盖面广、操作性强的风险评估与预警模型。并实证研究分析福建省A高校实施新校区项目所面临贷款规模、风险评估等问题,切合实际提出对策建议,为政府、高校和银行共同防范债务风险提供理论与实证依据,形成防范债务风险合力,促进高校健康、稳定、可持续发展。     

Modelling the preference for business charter in the cross-strait market

This paper aims at investigating business travelers' choice behavior between business charter (BC) and the business class of commercial airlines in the cross-strait market. This study applies the stated preference method and sets five scenarios with the combination of various levels of fares, waiting time, privacy and expedient clearance services and inflight communication equipment. Data were collected by purposive sampling and interviewing business travelers near the VIP centers, departure lounges, and the baggage claim areas of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. A sample with 420 business travelers from Taipei to Shanghai was collected. Then, the binary logit model was employed to analyze how service attributes influence Taiwanese business travelers' choice behavior between BC and business class. Estimation results indicate that fare is the most important factor. Other factors such as gender, seniority, and the number of business trips during the previous year remain significant on the probabilities of choosing BC. Additionally, five specific features of BC were set as dummy variables in the model. Those are transfer time saving, travel time controlling, client entertainment, customer visits and international conference attendance. All of them have positive effects on the preference for using BC.     

Assessment of land use compatibility and noise pollution at Imam Khomeini International Airport

This study aimed to investigate land use planning around airports, by employing Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in conjunction with an optimization algorithm using an Integrated Noise Model (INM) software, to establish the potential effects of aircraft noise at Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA) in Tehran. We also checked for land use compatibility with the noise levels around IKIA and the residents' reaction to the noise. The research was carried out in three stages: a) the establishment of Strategic Noise Map (SNM) scenarios of the airport operation in the years 2011, 2020 and 2030 using the INM software; b) the assessment of the results with emphasis on the study area land uses and application of RS and GIS and the exposure of residents at different levels of environmental noise; and c) the assessment of the intensity of aircraft noise annoyance at various times of day and night. The results indicated that developing IKIA together with the residential development will increase airport noise. Hence proper management and control of noise at IKIA is essential.