信息/信息技术“国际化”

在经济全球化进程中,只有建立起与国际通行规则相适应,同时又符合本国实际情况的信息/信息技术基础,才能更好地发展本国经济,更好地开展与世界各个地区和各个国家的经济技术合作。     

Macroeconomic forecasting using structural factor analysis

The use of a small number of underlying factors to summarize the information from a much larger set of information variables is one of the new frontiers in forecasting. In prior work, the estimated factors have not usually had a structural interpretation and the factors have not been chosen on a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose several variants of a general structural factor forecasting model, and use these to forecast certain key macroeconomic variables. We make the choice of factors more structurally meaningful by estimating factors from subsets of information variables, where these variables can be assigned to subsets on the basis of economic theory. We compare the forecasting performance of the structural factor forecasting model with that of a univariate AR model, a standard VAR model, and some non-structural factor forecasting models. The results suggest that our structural factor forecasting model performs significantly better in forecasting real activity variables, especially at short horizons.     

完善科技评价体系 健全决策咨询机制

文章阐述了科技评价体系的功能作用及其重要性,针对我国科技评价体系的发展现状及特点,提出了几点关于完善我国现有科技评价体系、健全决策咨询机制的主要做法和工作建议。     

基于网格技术的城市公共汽车到站时刻预测研究

在介绍了网格技术的含义和基础知识后,结合我国目前公共汽车预测研究的现状,设计了基于网格技术的城市公共汽车到站时间的预测系统,并对其进行了详细的设计。     

试论如何更好地对建筑企业实行物流管理

以现代企业物流管理理论为指导，对当今建筑施工企业物流的管理现状做了具体分析。指出在该领域影响企业发展的急需改革的关键问题，对如何有效地进行物流管理提出了具体方案。并对建筑施工企业物流管理的未来发展进行展望。     

风险投资环境的描述框架及我国风险投资环境分析

从影响风险投资环境的因素分析入手，依据给出的分析框架从科技与产业基础、技术与资本市场、基础性环境三个方面对我国风险投资环境状况进行了分析并提出了相关对策建议。从总体情况看，我国风险投资环境与发达国家相比虽然有一定差异，但快速发展风险投资的环境条件已基本具备。     

生态化综合农业技术创新的特征与途径

新农村建设是一项复杂的系统工程。涉及到农业、农村和农民问题的综合解决。以往农业发展中注重技术创新的经济目标的局限性及由此带来的发展与环境的矛盾、经济增长与社会福利失衡的矛盾等是制约“三农”问题解决的瓶颈。因此根据生态科学和生态哲学倡导的整体性、持续性、创造性与和谐性的原则。探索有效的政策制度创新、科学技术创新、工程管理创新、教育体系创新的综合集成。成为新农村建设走向可持续发展的必经之路。     

The e-integration dilemma: The linkages between Internet technology application, trading partner relationships and structural change

The evidence from an empirical study involving 281 Australian organizations suggests that the availability, open nature, and (comparative) ease of implementation of Internet technologies for integration with trading partners, whilst on the one hand providing the means by which organizations can integrate processes and systems in a cost effective way, can amplify the need for both structural change and closer collaboration with trading partners. The relationships proposed and tested in the model are justified and explained based on a number of theoretical perspectives. These include Transaction Cost Economics, Socio-technical Systems, Resource Dependency, Knowledge Based View, Stakeholder Theory and Organizational Learning. The implications of the findings for Transaction Cost Theory are noteworthy firstly because they support the appropriateness of the inter-organizational governance structure in the context of this study, and secondly because although application of these technologies may reduce information search and related costs, whether this necessarily leads to reduced coordination costs is problematic. The potential benefits from improved coordination may be constrained by the perceived costs, and risks, of transition to new structural forms. The implication for practice is that increased use of Internet technologies creates substantial pressure to invest in organizational change. The attractiveness of investing in technologies that place managers in a position where they need to promote organizational change in order to extract adequate returns creates a significant dilemma. On the one hand Internet technologies enable extensive sharing and integration of data among trading partners, but at the same time they create conditions requiring managers to embrace fundamental organizational change in order to leverage the potential of such integration.     

Learning for Innovation and the Skill Premium

The computer revolution took very long to pay off in productivity growth in the computer-using sectors. The relative wage of skilled workers, however, has risen sharply from the early days of the computer revolution onward. As skilled workers wages reflect their productivity, the two observations together pose a puzzle.This paper provides a micro-based explanation for the long diffusion period of the computer revolution. The general equilibrium model of growth zooms in on the research process and provides an explanation for sluggish growth with booming relative wages of the skilled. Technological progress in firms is driven by research aimed at improving the production technology (innovation) and by assimilation of ideas or principles present outside the firm (learning). A new General Purpose Technology (GPT) like the computer revolution generates an initial slowdown in economic growth and an increase in the skill premium.Acknowledgement I am indebted to Theo van de Klundert for suggestions and encouragement. Suggestions by Jan Boone, Bas Jacobs, Patrick Francois, Henri de Groot, Lex Meijdam, Niek Nahuis Sjak Smulders, Harald Uhlig and anonymous referees have contributed to the paper.     

Skill-Specific rather than General Education: A Reason for US–Europe Growth Differences?

In this paper, we develop a model of technology adoption and economic growth in which households optimally obtain either a concept-based, general education or a skill-specific, vocational education. General education is costly to obtain, but enables workers to operate new production technologies. Firms weigh the cost of adopting and operating new technologies against increased profits and optimally choose the level of adoption. We show that an economy whose policies favor vocational education will grow slower in equilibrium than one that favors general education. More importantly, the gap between their growth rates will increase with the growth rate of available technology. By characterizing the optimal Ramsey education policy we also demonstrate that the optimal subsidy for general education increases with the growth rate of available technology. Our theory suggests that European education policies that favored specialized, vocational education might have worked well, both in terms of growth rates and welfare, during the 1960s and 1970s when available technologies changed slowly. However, in the information age of the 1980s and 1990s when new technologies emerged at a more rapid pace, they might have contributed to an increased growth gap relative to the United States.