Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

新形势下施工企业管理理念探讨

随着中国市场经济体制改革的深化，世贸经济组织的加入，建筑市场环境的变化，企业改制及经营特型的开展，施工企业如何立足于国内市场，打入国际市场，面临着又一次大发展的机遇与挑战。本文通过综合分析，对我国建筑施工企业管理思想提出了一些初步的看法，供有关管理人员参考。     

安徽区域科技基础条件平台建设面临的问题与对策探讨

区域科技基础条件平台建设是一项复杂的系统工程,建设工作分为基础性工作和特色性工作的提法有助于地方政府分析条件平台建设的重点和难点.科技条件平台的核心功能之一是以科技资源共建共享的方式向社会提供共性技术尤其是产业共性技术.地方政府解决科技资源供给和需求之间的矛盾的关键在于对共性技术范围进行界定以及确定如何供给共性技术.     

交易费用与企业技术创新战略决策

对企业技术创新战略决策进行了两阶段分析，并采用交易费用理论对创新企业技术创新来源决策进行了分析，认为企业内部技术创新是企业吸收外部技术的基础，大部分企业技术创新将走自主创新与引进创新相结合的道路。     

大学生人文素质的疏离与重建

人类创造的全部文化 ,包括科技和人文两部分。他们相辅相成 ,共同促进人类的发展与进步。可如今高等教育的现实却是 ,科学技术日益受到崇拜 ,而人文素质教育则逐渐疏离。在更加强调“以德治国”的今天 ,大学教育不应是科技与人文的分离 ,而应是二者的渐趋融合 ,正确认识科学技术的作用与限度 ,关注和营造人情化的生活世界     

工科院校大学生人际交往能力的调查研究

相当一部分工科院校学生缺乏人际交往的锻炼机会,表现出各种各样的人际关系方面的问题。应加强人文素质教育和心理健康教育,加强人际交流方向的指导和训练。     

科技公益创业研究的现状与思考

本文对科技公益创业研究的重要性以及目前研究现状进行了分析,并提出进一步研究的内容和思路,具体包括:科技公益创业重要性的分析、科技公益创业维度及其概念的界定、科技公益创业理论框架与创业、公益创业以及一般的科技创业理论框架的差异分析、科技公益创业绩效测评体系研究、国外科技公益创业的成功与失败案例分析等等。     

Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies

A model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site-specific technologies (SSTs) using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters. Uncertainty can lead risk-averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case. Ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption. Accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of SSTs. Improving the accuracy of SSTs would increase the incentives for adoption.     

“100% EDI-connected suppliers” projects: An empirical investigation of success factors

Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) is becoming increasingly important, and new organizational forms based on EDI suppliers’ capabilities are emerging. Therefore, taking advantage of recent technological changes, especially the development of Web-based EDI systems, many big industrial buyers are seeking to get all their suppliers EDI-connected. Based on previous research on EDI adoption, we conducted a survey to study the opportunities of success of such a “100% EDI-connected suppliers” policy using data from the vehicle industry. Findings from our survey helped us to understand suppliers’ responses to such a policy and to provide recommendations to industrial buyers who are seeking to succeed in a “100% EDI-connected suppliers” project. This includes employing tailored communication strategies and selecting appropriate incentives that take into account different levels of suppliers’ EDI-capabilities and suppliers’ dependence.     

Research on Generation Mechanism of Technical Innovation

Technical advancement includes technology generation, diffusion and aggregation. This paper focuses on researching the mechanism of technology generation from the viewpoint of technology cycle, and the source spring of the generation of the innovation based on technology is scientific discovery. The technical perfection and secondary innovation are determined by the pulling force of demand, unbalanced inducement mechanism and profit. Standardized innovation is the sign of technology mature stage, the limit in demand and supply of technology drives the technical innovation into lag phase.