强化政府引导服务功能 提高企业整体创新能力

怀化是一个欠发达的山区,要发展、壮大民营经济,提升民营科技企业整体创新能力,必须注重发挥科技部门职能作用,强化政府引导服务功能。     

Inferential Causal Models: Integrating Quality & Quantity

In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed.     

COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

A Nonstandard Approach to Option Pricing

Nonstandard probability theory and stochastic analysis, as developed by Loeb, Anderson, and Keisler, has the attractive feature that it allows one to exploit combinatorial aspects of a well-understood discrete theory in a continuous setting. We illustrate this with an example taken from financial economics: a nonstandard construction of the well-known Black-Scholes option pricing model allows us to view the resulting object at the same time as both (the hyperfinite version of) the binomial Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model (that is, a hyperfinite geometric random walk) and the continuous model introduced by Black and Scholes (a geometric Brownian motion). Nonstandard methods provide a means of moving freely back and forth between the discrete and continuous points of view. This enables us to give an elementary derivation of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula from the corresponding formula for the binomial model. We also devise an intuitive but rigorous method for constructing self-financing hedge portfolios for various contingent claims, again using the explicit constructions available in the hyperfinite binomial model, to give the portfolio appropriate to the Black-Scholes model. Thus, nonstandard analysis provides a rigorous basis for the economists' intuitive notion that the Black-Scholes model contains a built-in version of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model.     

Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process

This article formulates a bivariate point process to jointlyanalyze trade and quote arrivals. In microstructure models,trades may reveal private information that is then incorporatedinto new price quotes. This article examines the speed of thisinformation flow and the circumstances that govern it. A jointlikelihood function for trade and quote arrivals is specifiedin a way that recognizes that an intervening trade sometimescensors the time between a trade and the subsequent quote. Modelsof trades and quotes are estimated for eight stocks using Tradeand Quote database (TAQ) data. The essential finding for thearrival of price quotes is that information flow variables,such as high trade arrival rates, large volume per trade, andwide bid–ask spreads, all predict more rapid price revisions.This means prices respond more quickly to trades when informationis flowing so that the price impacts of trades and ultimatelythe volatility of prices are high in such circumstances.     

仓储诊断分析研究

通过对仓储运作的调查诊断，来定义仓储操作中拥有广泛基础的可持续发展的优先管理权。以让每个企业能更方便的发现自身仓储操作中的问题，重新检查自身的库存系统，建设一套符合企业自身特点的仓储管理系统。     

马克思如何实现对黑格尔辩证法的改造

马克思是如何实现对黑格尔辩证法的唯物主义改造的呢?马克思反复强调,黑格尔哲学是一种“头足倒置”的哲学,通过推敲黑格尔和马克思的辩证法思想,本文认为马克思实现对黑格尔辩证法的改造,至少经过了三个倒置:倒置了黑格尔辩证法辩证发展的主体;倒置了黑格尔辩证法辩证发展的中介;倒置了黑格尔辩证法辩证发展的理论结构。     

Got milk? The rapid rise of China’s dairy sector and its future prospects

This paper synthesizes recent research and new empirical findings to build a more comprehensive understanding of developments in China’s dairy sector. China’s tremendous rise in dairy demand has been driven by several mutually reinforcing factors: including rapid income growth, promotion by the government and dairy industry, changes in urban lifestyles, and the development of new, more sophisticated marketing channels. Domestic milk output has grown to satisfy rising demand largely by increasing the dairy herd. Substantial increases in productivity have been achieved through technology adoption, but there is evidence that the torrid growth has created inefficiencies because adaptations to marketing rules, infrastructure, and institutions have not kept pace with the changing environment. These results suggest there is ample room for future growth in both domestic milk production and dairy demand, but multinational firms and imported products will likely play and increasing role as China’s dairy market continues to develop.     

论中国加入WTO后会计理论研究的视点选择

中国加入WTO后,必将对现行会计体系产生一定的影响。因此,现阶段我国会计理论研究的视点为:会计规范体系的完善与会计信息效度的提高,会计管理职能的强化与会计监督责任的履行,会计服务市场的开拓与同业竞争实力的提升,知识产权保护观念的增强与无形资产核算范围的扩展,资源环境保护意识的强化与社会责任会计信息的适量运用,网上交易方式的普遍推行与会计信息传递媒介的创新。     

交易费用与企业技术创新战略决策

对企业技术创新战略决策进行了两阶段分析，并采用交易费用理论对创新企业技术创新来源决策进行了分析，认为企业内部技术创新是企业吸收外部技术的基础，大部分企业技术创新将走自主创新与引进创新相结合的道路。