美国金融业对外直接投资流向的实证分析

美国1995年～2000年金融业对外直接投资流向分布极不均衡,对投资流向分布进行统计分析发现,非金融领域直接投资、1994年金融业对外直接投资存量、双边贸易量、东道国经济金融发展水平是金融业对外直接投资的主要决定因素,证明了邓宁国际生产折衷主义理论对金融业对外直接投资的解释力。据此简要分析美国对中国金融领域直接投资现状,并分析了今后发展趋势。     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

构造与市场经济相适应的现代公有制形式

公有制的改革与发展问题是建设有中国特色社会主义经济的核心问题。要完善社会主义初级阶段基本经济制度，实现公有制与市场经济的结合，只在公有制的实现形式上做文章是不够的，还必须高度重视和认其解决公有制本身的存在形式即公有制形式问题。     

关于可持续发展理论与实践的若干思考

可持续发展理论与实践的深入有赖于在四个方面的重新认识：首先，可持续发展是观念性、战略性实践性的统一；其次，可持续发展是层次性与阶段性的统一；第三，可持续发展是区域性与综合性的统一；最后， 制度变革与创新是影响可持续发展的关键因素。     

征税成本领先性假设与中国税务组织结构优化——兼析中国国税、地税机构是否存在合并趋势

本文从征税成本领先性假设出发探讨了中国税务组织结构的优化问题 ,并分析了社会各界广泛关注的中国国税、地税机构是否存在合并趋势的问题。本文在对中国现行税务组织机构运行绩效考察的基础上 ,发现中国征税成本曲线呈抛物线状 ,表明中国征税成本正呈递减趋势。以此为出发点 ,本文详细论证了中国国税、地税机构不存在合并的趋势 ,相反 ,分设更为彻底却是今后的发展趋势 ,得出了与一般看法不同的结论 ,并对优化中国税务组织结构提出了政策建议     

Is capital a collusion device?

Summary. We examine how irreversible capital reduces the possibility of a duopoly to sustain implicit collusion by grim strategies, when the product is homogenous and firms compete in quantities. Compared with the case of reversible capital, there are two countervailing effects: Deviation from an existing collusion is less attractive, because capital once installed causes costs forever. But the punishment will also be less severe due to the high capacity the deviating firm can build before punishment starts. The last effect dominates, meaning that the commitment value of capital is negative for all firms. If capital is irreversible, collusion breaks down for realistic magnitudes of interest rates. Received: April 30, 1999; revised version: November 30, 2001     

从广西看大西南出海通道建设

广西在大西南出海通道的建设中占有极其重要的地位，本文采用网络模型，按现状与规划路网两种情况，综合考虑陆上距离和去不同方向市场的海上距离，分析了北海（代表广西港口群）、湛江、广州等三条出海通道的三个港。各自的吸引范围。并由此得出了一些有益的结论。     

Teams, Firms and the Evolution of Profit Seeking Behavior

Even as advances in information theory over the last quarter century have cast increasing doubt on the proposition that firms successfully maximize profits, the objective of profit maximization continues to be an axiomatic feature of the neoclassical theory of the firm. This paper attempts to improve our understanding firms by treating the objective function as an open question. Specifically, an ontogenetic thought experiment is undertaken to address the question of what differentiates production teams from firms by asking why team members would sell their control rights to a principal, thereby transforming the team into a firm. What results is an account of the emergence of the objective of profit seeking. Profit seeking emerges endogenously as a more fit alternative than the objective of value maximization, which is less capable of coping with uncertainty through purposive adaptation.     

内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场的战略模式选择

内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场对其自身发展壮大和西藏居民健康状况的改善具有双重的意义，因此对进入的战略模式选择的研究是至关重要的。本文分析了内地制药行业企业进入西藏市场的必要性、可行性，在此基础上研究了进入市场的四种主要战略模式选择，阐述了不同战略模式的特征。希望本文的研究能够给我国制药企业的发展和西藏的医疗卫生进步作出贡献。