中国经济转型中的资本市场机遇——基于“四维理论”的分析

考察美国、日本等国历史经验,结合对中国资本市场的研究和实践,本文提出用四维理论——即宏观大背景决定方向,产业小背景精确定位股票,技术分析决定交易时机,心理博弈决定投资成败为纬度的四维理论来分析资本市场。从宏观、产业、技术及心理角度综合分析,当前资本市场估值处于合理区域,未来存在较大潜力。     

Coordination in retailer-carrier channels for long term planning

We study a retailer-carrier channel for the purpose of long term planning and coordination. Here, the term channel represents the business interaction between the retailer and the carrier. The retailer sells a particular item with price-dependent demand, whereas the carrier is responsible for transporting the item to the retailer's site. We characterize the profit functions of each channel member as well as the total channel profit. We consider two specific channel structures: (i) the centralized channel and (ii) the decentralized channel. Under the first channel structure, the goal is to set the retail price so as to maximize the total channel profit. Under the latter, the carrier and the retailer choose their own policy parameters, i.e., the freight rate for the carrier and the retail price for the retailer, so as to maximize their individual profits. We model the decentralized channel as a Stackelberg Game and propose a coordination mechanism between the retailer and the carrier in which the retailer signals a price multiplier to the carrier. We illustrate that this mechanism could provide win-win solutions for both parties and present analytical and numerical results on the efficiency of channel coordination. We demonstrate that coordination in retailer-carrier channels can be as promising as supplier-retailer channels. We also discuss the effects of retailer-carrier coordination on inventory levels.     

Adverse Selection,Investor Experience and Security Choice in Venture Capital Finance: Evidence from Germany

This article analyses 336 German venture capital transactions from 1990 to 2005 and seeks to determine why selected financial securities differ across deals. We find that a broad array of financial instruments is used, covering straight equity, mezzanine and debt‐like securities. Based on the chosen financial securities’ upside potential and downside protection characteristics, we provide an explanation for the differing use of these securities. Our results show that investors’ deal experience, adverse selection risks and economic prospects in the public equity market influence the selection of financial securities.     

论文化身份对儿童文学译介的影响

本文运用多元系统理论中有关理论对文化身份对童文学译介的影响进行了探讨。文化身份制约了儿童文学翻译,影响译者对翻译作品的选择及翻译策略的选择。然而,文化身份的制约不是决定性的,译者的主观文化态度、不同文化间的相互需求也会影响儿童文学翻译。     

Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

生产力:"是什么"与"什么是"——从"系统论"看马克思的"生产力"理论

关于“生产力”，马克思有诸多提法和表述。正确认识和处理不同含义的生产力概念及其相互关系，无疑是正确地理解和把握马克思的生产力理论乃至整个唯物史观的重要前提。本文运用现代“系统论”方法，分别就生产力系统的“系统质”、系统内部的“要素”和“结构”、系统外部的“环境”和“条件”进行梳理和剖析。基本结论是：要把“系统质”的一般层面的生产力规定与内部“要素”和“结构”、外部“环境”和“条件”等具体层面的生产力规定区别开来；前者回答的是生产力“是什么”的问题，后者回答的则是“什么是”生产力的问题；既不能把这些不同层次的生产力规定混为一谈，更不能用具体层面的任何一种生产力规定去排斥甚至取代一般层面的生产力规定。     

我国上市公司会计信息失真的原因及对策探讨——基于经济学角度分析

目前我国上市公司会计信息披露中存在较多问题,上市公司散布虚假信息、欺诈投资者的现象屡屡发生。本文试从经济学角度对会计信息的披露进行研究,通过构建博弈模型,分析会计信息失真的原因,并提出解决问题的方法。     

Job analysis: a strategic human resource management practice

This study examined the impact of job analysis on organizational performance among 148 companies based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a Gulf-region country. Survey results indicated that a practice of proactive job analysis was strongly related to organizational performance. This relationship was strongest to the extent that companies maintained HR information systems, accorded HR greater involvement in strategic planning and emphasized competency-based characteristics of employees in the job analysis approaches they used. The findings suggest that a company-wide policy of job analysis is an important source of competitive advantage in its own right, and merits due attention of HR professionals, line managers and top management. The study extends the findings of the HR–performance research pursued in Western countries to a non-Western context.     

Research on e-commerce transaction networks using multi-agent modelling and open application programming interface

We provide a formal definition of an e-commerce transaction network. Agent-based modelling is used to simulate e-commerce transaction networks. For real-world analysis, we studied the open application programming interfaces (APIs) from eBay and Taobao e-commerce websites and captured real transaction data. Pajek is used to visualise the agent relationships in the transaction network. We derived one-mode networks from the transaction network and analysed them using degree and betweenness centrality. Integrating multi-agent modelling, open APIs and social network analysis, we propose a new way to study large-scale e-commerce systems.     

变权公式中参数α的性态分析

本文运用公平理论模式分析了决策者在决策指标变化时的心理反应状况对变权公式中参数α取值的影响,并给出了两者之间的量化关系式。