城乡居民收入分配及城镇化对总消费的影响研究

城乡收入分配对总消费的影响，受制于城镇化水平的高低。建立考虑人口因素的城乡收入分配影响总消费模型，分析我国农村居民收入占总收入比重以及城镇化率与总消费的关系，结果表明：我国农村居民收入比重的扩大和城镇化率的提高都有助于扩大我国居民总消费，但城镇化率超过一定水平时不利于城乡收入分配调节。因此，基于我国城乡收入差距大且农村收入比重下降的情况，我国扩大内需的战略选择应是：先调整收入分配结构，增加农村居民收入比重，提高农村居民工资性收入，从而提高总体消费水平；再在此基础上提高城镇化率，进一步增加总消费。     

政府管控一般目标、总量结构和管控基本范畴

政府宏观经济管控目标具有多重性,包括保持社会总供给与总需求的平衡,促进经济再生产各环节及各产业、地区间的协调,不断提高人民生活水平调节社会分配,保护生态环境和自然资源,实现经济长期发展的良性循环和社会进步等,还包括经济目标"效率"和社会目标"均等"。宏观经济管理、调控和干预是三个既有联系又有区别的概念,而管控应当说包涵了三方面内容。管控的基本内容和手段实际也是市场机制调节功能的有机组成,客观上要求宏观经济调节机制必须通过市场机制起作用。     

人口结构调整对我国 城镇居民消费的影响

本文通过我国31个省的城镇居民消费结构数据，利用扩展线性支出系统（ELES），分析了人口结构调整对我国居民消费结构的影响。研究结果表明：（1）随着老龄化程度的加深，社会总抚养系数的提高会增加人们基本生活支出；（2）从边际消费倾向来看，虽然未来我国居民消费结构升级表现为娱乐文化和教育等支出的提高，但是因老龄化引起的社会总负担系数的提高很可能对该部分的消费产生挤压；（3）家庭耐用品、交通通信和娱乐文化教育的收入弹性大于1，未来消费结构优化的重点也应当增加其贡献，提高我国居民的消费潜力。     

房屋共有建筑面积分摊模型研究

本文由房屋共有建筑面积的分摊原则入手,通过分析房屋的分摊关系及共有建筑面积的分摊类型,提出了一种通用的、符合《规范》及程序运算要求的共有建筑面积分摊模型,实际应用证明了该模型的实用性和有效性。     

Employment Growth Determinants in New Firms in Eastern Germany

The unification of both Germanies and the introduction of the market economy in eastern Germany came as a shock to existing firms and led to an enormous boom in the establishment of new firms. The first section of this paper shows that during the period under observation (January 1991--June 1995) the number of firms nearly doubled and in 1995, nearly 50% of all jobs were to be found in firms established after 1991. Shortly after unification, a kind of "start- window" existed during which the conditions for establishment, growth and survival of firms were extraordinarily good. The next section deals with the determinates of the growth of these newly founded firms. Most determinants have been selected on the basis of the most recent studies by Brüderl, Preisendörfer and Ziegler (1996), and Storey (1994). The analysis included not only establishment characteristics but also strategic factors such as the technological status of the establishment, the proportion of sales in interregional markets, and a corporate competitive strategy indicator. A comparison of these results with other studies shows that the determinants that affect employment growth in new firms in eastern German are apparently the same as in western Germany and Britain, albeit to different extents.     

基于可持续发展的国家物质流分析

210003本文采用物质流分析方法,研究了1995—2002年中国经济系统的物质输入和输出等相关指标,发现经济系统的物质需求总量和物质输出总量巨大,自然环境的生态压力短期内无法得到缓解;人均物质需求量不高,物质生产力也很低;环境库兹涅茨曲线呈现出倒“U”型,最高点出现在人均收入700美元,然后进入下降通道;技术水平是影响物质需求总量变化的关键因素;出口能源中的煤炭存在巨大隐藏流是导致生态贸易赤字的主要原因。     

Consistency of elementwise-weighted total least squares estimator in a multivariate errors-in-variables model <Emphasis Type="Bold">AX=B</Emphasis>

A multivariate measurement error model AXB is considered. The errors in [A,B] are rowwise independent, but within each row the errors may be correlated. Some of the columns are observed without errors, and in addition the error covariance matrices may differ from row to row. The total covariance structure of the errors is supposed to be known up to a scalar factor. The fully weighted total least squares estimator of X is studied, which in the case of normal errors coincides with the maximum likelihood estimator. We give mild conditions for weak and strong consistency of the estimator, when the number of rows in A increases. The results generalize the conditions of Gallo given for a univariate homoscedastic model (where B is a vector), and extend the conditions of Gleser given for the multivariate homoscedastic model. We derive the objective function for the estimator and propose an iteratively reweighted numerical procedure.Acknowledgements.A. Kukush is supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Belgian office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, promoting Scientific and Technical Collaboration with Central and Eastern Europe. S. Van Huffel is a full professor with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Programme on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction (IUAP Phase V-22), initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Ministers Office-Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, of the Concerted Research Action (GOA) projects of the Flemish Government MEFISTO-666 (Mathematical Engineering for Information and Communication Systems Technology), of the IDO/99/03 project (K.U. Leuven) Predictive computer models for medical classification problems using patient data and expert knowledge, of the FWO projects G.0200.00, G.0078.01 and G.0270.02. The scientific responsibility is assumed by its authors. The authors would like to thank Maria Luisa Rastello and Amedeo Premoli for bringing the EW-TLS problem to their attention. The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for the valuable comments.     

工业新增利润来源及其影响因素：基于企业数据的经验研究

本文利用企业数据，对我国1998-2005年工业企业的新增利润来源从不同角度进行了分析．并且进一步将收益率的变化分解为全要素生产率的变动和分配格局的变动．对正确理解这段时期工业利润率的变化提供了微观层面的解释。本文发现。在考察期内工业利润的增长是结构性的．重工业对工业利润增长贡献了70％以上：采掘业和原材料工业利润率提高的关键因素是产品价格的大幅上涨．而轻工业和机械工业收益率的改善主要来自于生产率水平的提高：工业部门平均工资水平增速小于GDP增速．行业间的工资水平差异较大．大部分劳动者的工资增速较慢．利润的高速增长很大程度上是以工资的缓慢增长为代价的。     

我国地区全要素生产率与人力资本构成

考虑到人力资本组成部分的异质性,本文研究了全要素生产率(TFP)与人力资本构成的关系,并运用Dynamic Panel Data一阶差分GMM估计方法对1982—2004年我国28个省区市的面板数据进行了实证检验。实证结果表明,只有接受过高等教育的人力资本部分对TFP才有显著的促进作用。把人力资本分解为不同的组成部分有助于深化我们对TFP和人力资本的理解,还可以使我们对现有文献中人力资本与产出的一些争议提供解释。     

小样品量比色管过硫酸钾消解法测定总磷的研究

针对标准过硫酸钾消解测定总磷采用50mL比色管、耗时长且消耗大量实验药品的问题,提出了用25mL比色管进行消解测定。通过空白值、重现性、相关系数及加标回收率几方面与标准方法进行比较,25mL比色管测得的标准曲线y=1.5173x+1.20×10-3,相关系数为0.9998,加标回收率在98.4%～104.1%之间,与标准方法使用的50mL比色管测得的值无显著性差异。实验表明该法简便快速、节约成本、准确可靠。