Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand

The international trade literature suggests trade concentration is an important factor in the amplification of the global financial crisis. However, the relationship between trade concentration and transmission of the subprime crisis is empirically weak. Thailand is one of the countries with declining reliance on the advanced economies, yet it was greatly affected by the recent crisis. This might result because the formation of global supply chains creates both direct and indirect trade linkages. In this paper, the authors include the effects of both linkages to examine their connection to the transmission of external shocks, as experienced by the Thai economy. If total trade linkages are calculated, Thailand is still found to be highly exposed to advanced markets. Simulation using a computational general equilibrium model also indicates that the country was seriously affected by the financial crisis through indirect channels.     

Identifying terms of trade shocks in a developing country using a sign restrictions approach

Using annual data for Botswana from 1960 to 2012, we examine the responses of macroeconomic variables to four generalized positive terms of trade shocks – global demand, globalizing, sector-specific and global supply. A sign-restricted structural vector autoregression model with a penalty function is estimated to identify the four possible shocks. While positive global demand and globalization shocks are both expansionary, they have opposite effects on inflation. A positive commodity market specific shock dampens real GDP growth and is inflationary, suggesting a possible Dutch disease response. A negative global supply shock suppresses both output growth and inflation. All but the last shock leads to a significant declining interest rate. Monetary policy contraction is recommended for the first shock and expansion for the others.     

融入全球化的中国：世界生产贸易大逆转及其原因剖析

16世纪以后，以中国为代表的东方文明和西方文明出现分野，东方的科学技术越来越落后子西方，历史称之为“李约瑟之迷”，进入21世纪后，中国正在以前所未有的速度走出这个迷团。2011年，中国制造业产值为2．05万亿美元，而美国制造业为1．78万亿美元，首次超过美国成为全球第一，贸易也是如此，2012年中国货物进出口总额38670亿美元，美国为38628亿美元，也已经超过美国成为世界第一。分析这个大逆转的厚因，一是从体制上解放了了生产力，社会主义市场经济体制是人类社会主义伟大实践的创举；二是对外开放；三是坚定不移地贯彻了科学技术是第一生产力的伟大国策；四是融入了了全球的货币体系。     

外贸企业会计内控研究

对外贸企业而言,会计内部控制机制是外贸企业财务处理、业务程序等进行规范的一种管理手段,是外贸企业内部管理的基础和内部控制的关键控制点,在整个外贸企业的发展运行中发挥着重要作用。基于此,通过探讨当前外贸企业会计内部控制机制的现状,对其未来发展提出了相关建议。     

乡土正当性与法律正当性在林权纠纷中的博弈——基于桂南两县一区的实地调查

通过背景梳析,在对林权纠纷中地方政府、国有林场、农户的调查后发现乡土正当性和法律正当性在当地林权纠纷中存在冲突,通过分析得出当前的林权纠纷问题具有普遍性和复杂性的基本特征;从制度经济学的产权角度和农户增收角度来看,农户的土地产权应得到维护。     

Beyond Dutch disease

How does the deterioration of rule of law in Russia in recent years affect its ability to move away from an export pattern dominated by natural resources? We investigate this question using three datasets for Russia's bilateral trade relations for goods, services and investment at disaggregated level with its partner countries over the world. Our empirical analysis shows that the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia since 2003 has affected the long‐run trade performance of Russia in sophisticated and technology‐intensive manufactured goods, as well as its inward investments with advanced economies. It is precisely this type of trade that Russia should nurture to diversify away from hydrocarbons export dependence. Our statistical analysis also shows that Russia remains to a large extent an outlier within the multilateral trading system. It exports disproportionately less to partner countries which are or had become members of the WTO over our period of analysis. Russia's trade appears to have been negatively affected by the accession of these countries to the WTO. Russia itself finally acceded to the WTO in July 2012 amidst signs of a modest improvement of its rule‐of‐law indicators.     

Small farmer cooperatives and voluntary coffee certifications: Rewarding progressive farmers of engendering widespread change in Costa Rica?

Our research examines the benefits and drawbacks for cooperatives who participate in voluntary coffee certifications. We interviewed administrators at twenty Costa Rican coffee cooperatives about management practices related to voluntary certification. Voluntary certifications are popular among coffee cooperatives. Access to certified markets is facilitated by state support of the cooperative sector, regulation of the coffee sector and well-enforced environmental and social laws. However, there are no significant or consistent financial incentives for farmers to pursue certification. Multiple certifications may lower auditing and implementation costs, but cooperatives rarely receive the full premium for multiply-certified coffee. Low market demand for certified coffee, weak price incentives and high auditing and management costs encourage cooperatives to certify only a portion of their members. This strategy rewards compliant farmers rather than inducing widespread change to farming practices among the entire membership. Though financial incentives are weak, certifications offer non-financial benefits to both farmers and cooperatives, including better management and more resilient cooperatives.     

Factors of trade in Europe

We analyze how a set of determinants affect trade among European countries over the period 1992–2008. The factors encompass variables from the areas of geography, culture, institutions, infrastructure, and trade direction. Trade is analyzed for four types of goods: primary goods, parts and components, capital goods, and consumer goods. For each type of good we also distinguish its definition in terms of flows, intensive margin, and extensive margin. Methodologically, we first derive country-pair fixed effects over all possible pairs of export–import partners, and in the second stage we relate fixed effects with a set of influential factors. We show (i) the intuitive and varying effects of geographical, cultural, and institutional factors; (ii) the beneficial effects of soft and hard infrastructure; and (iii) the key importance of trade between old and new EU members.     

知识产权壁垒研究综述

在国际贸易往来中,知识产权作为贸易保护主义的一种工具被发达国家越来越频繁地使用,形成了一种新型的贸易壁垒即知识产权壁垒,随着贸易摩擦的频率与次数逐渐增多,其对贸易国家尤其是发展中国家构成了较大的威胁与障碍。立足于我国实际,通过结合国内外学者最新研究成果对知识产权壁垒研究进行梳理与总结并得出启示,提出我国相关产业与企业应客观看待并积极应对知识产权壁垒,不断提高自主创新能力与国际竞争力。