全球经济失衡的调整趋势——基于美国中心的视角

本文对以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式进行了趋势性分析。尽管外部失衡呈现出周期性的调整,但这些调整过程也是围绕着美国的经济和利益中心而展开的。对于美国而言,它并不需要刻意对其逆差大小进行调整,而主要通过金融渠道的资本流动收益为其贸易逆差提供融资;其外部失衡的调整是贸易失衡对象的转换,而不是贸易余额的逆转。对于顺差方,外部失衡的调整意味着贸易条件的恶化和经济结构的调整,出口贸易地位将逐步被弱化和替代。以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式将继续存在,除非美元崩溃和美国经济霸主地位丧失。     

Estimating the link between trade uncertainty,pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis

Globally, the outbreak of COVID-19 and the associated containment measures adopted by governments are causing disruptions that sow uncertainty in several sectors of the economy. In this study, we explore the asymmetric impact of pandemic uncertainty and global trade policy on food prices in Togo. The study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) framework and causality tests for the period 2000 M1–2021 M5. The results show that the different types of uncertainty affect food price stability in the short and long run, but the shock is more pronounced in the case of pandemic uncertainty, as they are sudden and disrupt food price stability. The main findings remain significant when we use various alternative methods and estimation techniques. However, our results suggest that the Togolese food market is facing pandemic uncertainty and trade policy, which should lead policymakers and stakeholders to take corrective measures to control losses.     

产品内分工视角下服务贸易竞争力的影响因素及其启示

产品内分工影响服务贸易的基本途径是服务外包;基于11个OECD国家投入产出表的数据,实证分析了制造业消耗的生产性服务业中间投入和服务业消耗的生产性服务业中间投入、生产性服务业的劳动力成本和信息与通讯技术发展水平对服务贸易竞争力的影响,并给出了政策启示。     

中国汇率问题的经济学分析

本文通过梳理中国汇率制度变迁历程,认为人民币价值被低估,并对中国经济产生了一些消极影响。人民币升值对改善美国贸易逆差并无明显作用,但增加汇率弹性有利于中美两国的经济发展。     

Environmental Policy in Open Economies and Monopolistic Competition

This paper analyses the implications of international trade for non-cooperative environmental policy in the case of local production externalities. A particular focus is on the potential effects of regulations on the variety of goods and the resulting international spillover caused by trade. A tougher domestic standard negatively affects the utility of the households abroad, since such a policy reduces their variety of imports (due to fewer domestic product inventions) or their consumption of each imported brand (due to higher import prices). Ignoring the negative spillover, non-cooperative governments implement inefficiently strict standards in equilibrium. In contrast to this clear-cut inefficiency result, the impact of international trade on the state of the environment is ambiguous.     

The effect of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of trade

This study examines the impact of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Since trade data contain excessive zero trade flows, we adopt recently suggested Poisson and Gamma pseudo maximum likelihoods. ???Our finding shows that immigrant stock in South Korea has significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Immigrants’ network seems to decrease variable as well as fixed costs of trade.     

WTO与竞争政策的冲突--论WTO下个人权利的缺失

尽管关税壁垒已经被大大消除,但反竞争行为如果得不到规制将会成为阻碍国际贸易自由化发展的新壁垒,使得贸易政策和竞争政策的冲突和矛盾愈发突出。由于贸易政策和竞争政策调整对象的不同以及基本理念和价值取向不同,尤其是对个人权利的不同关注,决定了两者在最终追求目标相互补之外的不完全相容性。现有的世界贸易组织所规范的贸易行为并没有涉及和考虑竞争政策尤为重视的经济活动参与者及其商业行为,尽管世界贸易组织协定中已有一些初步的竞争规则,但贸易政策和竞争政策的协调前景并不乐观。     

我国外贸技术溢出效应的国别差异分析

技术溢出是发展中国家追赶发达国家的重要路径,溢出的渠道包括国际贸易、FDI、R＆D合作、国外R＆D投资等。我们运用经拓展后的Coe＆Helpman的贸易溢出计量模型,试图将我国从商品贸易以及FDI中所获得的技术溢出纳入同一模型中加以综合分析,并对贸易带来的技术溢出效应进行国别差异分析,以判断不同类型国家对我国吸收技术溢出效应的影响。并在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国外贸增长方式转变绩效的实证研究——基于江苏数据

本文通过建立外贸增长方式综合评价体系,以江苏数据为例,对外贸增长方式转变绩效进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：量性指标显示外贸规模不断扩大,业绩突出;结构指标显示外贸结构提升业绩平平,虽然结构指标在波动中不断优化,但是优化程度不够;效益指标显示外贸效益逐渐上升,但环境效益指标较差。从总体上来看,转变外贸增长方式的任务仍然十分艰巨。     

知识经济时代创新与国际服务贸易发展关系研究

知识经济时代,创新与国际服务贸易发展的关系尤为密切。国际服务贸易给我国经济带来巨大的发展利益是我们创新的内在动力,一个立体式的国际服务贸易创新局面可以概括为以体制创新为基础、以服务产业结构创新为突破、以制度创新为实质,通过政策创新、构成创新和工具创新等具体体现,它涵盖了服务贸易各个方面、贯穿于服务贸易的全过程。