基于案例推理的非常规突发事件资源需求预测

近年来非常规突发事件频繁发生,严重危害了人民的生命财产安全,而如何及时预测灾害发生后的资源需求成为一个重要课题。文章提出了一种精确的预测方法,将模糊集理论,神经网络Hebb学习规则和多元线性回归与案例推理法相结合。这种方法很好地解决了非常规突发事件资源需求预测这类信息不完备、不精确问题,能够比较准确的作出资源的需求预测。该模型对灾害资源需求预测具有一定的参考价值。     

论我国紧急土地征收制度的构建

研究目的：论证中国构建紧急土地征收制度的必要性并提出立法建议。研究方法：比较法、演绎法。研究结果：征收与征用的本质区别在于征收导致所有权转移,征用只暂时改变使用权主体。现行法律法规规定的紧急情况下“先行使用土地”可能涉及紧急土地征收,现行政策规定的受季节影响重大工程等“先行使用土地”应纳入紧急土地征收范畴。新修正的《土地管理法》未规定紧急征收制度是一大遗憾。研究结论：应当借鉴其他国家土地征收立法经验,抓住《突发事件应对法》《土地管理法实施条例》等法律法规修改的机遇,规定紧急土地征收制度,避免“征用转征收”“先行用地审批代替征收审批”等变通方式规避征收程序。     

深圳市环境事件应急处置服务费用定价方法研究

基于深圳环境形势和应急处置服务的特殊性,总结了环境应急处置服务费用的影响因素及其构成要素,初步研究符合深圳实际的环境应急处置服务费用定价方法。深圳市环境应急处置服务费用包含了4大类、9小类的构成要素及数十项具体收费项目,基本涵盖当前环境应急处置服务的主要内容。列明了大部分项目的计价公式和计价单位,对无法详细列明或难以给出具体收费数额的项目,依据共性原则列出了公式和关键参数,确保有效指导费用的计算。     

Crisis Management Competencies

Since public networks became widespread, doubts have arisen over how to make them succeed. Scholars have traditionally addressed the issue in different ways, thus variously shedding light on the network structure, mechanisms, or managers as predictors of the network performance. The aim of our article is to explore the possibility of an interaction effect between the abovementioned factors. Our results show that there may be a relationship between network structure, mechanisms, and managers that jointly affects network performance. Therefore, important suggestions can be made about how to manage public networks successfully: (1) ensure that your network mechanisms and managerial abilities are coherent with the structure of your network; and (2) if you are in a well-established and integrated network, allow yourself some flexibility. Data were collected through a multiple case study that focused on collaboration for joint provision of home care services in Switzerland.     

大地震后城市应急功能的思考

随着我国城市规模的不断扩大,城市灾害呈现出群发多样性、时空耦合性、链状分布等新的特点。我国现有的城市应急体系已经不能完全适应城市应急管理的需要,特别是汶川大地震后反映出了我们在城市应急管理方面的一些不足。对存在的不足给予了总结并提出了相关建议,希望能为我们的城市应急管理体系建设提供参考。     

全面推进非常规水源利用 促进经济社会可持续发展

本文重点介绍了烟台市非常规水资源利用情况,以及在实际工作中,始终坚持"政府主导、部门联动、社会参与"的工作方法,并于今后进一步加大城市节水工作力度,不断加快非常规水源开发利用步伐,全面推进节水型城市建设。     

论手机媒体在突发公共卫生事件中的传播

近年来各种突发公共卫生事件不断发生,信息的及时沟通非常重要,手机媒体以其即时性、互动性、高效性等特点已经成为传播信息的新媒体,尤其是在公共突发事件中具有不可替代的作用。阐述手机媒体传播特点,分析其在突发公共卫生事件信息传播中的利弊并提出了相应对策。     

突发事件应急管理的发展趋势

随着突发事件的不断发生,以及给国家、社会、公民造成严重的危害,突发事件应急管理成为当代整个国际社会所关注的共同主题,也成为公共管理理论和实践界所重视的重要领域,我国应急管理建设面临着愈加严峻的挑战。     

Would helicopter money be spent? New evidence for the Netherlands

According to some economists, central banks should use ‘helicopter money’ to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents would spend the money received via such a transfer. Our results show that respondents expect to spend about 30% of the transfer and that helicopter money would hardly affect inflation expectations. Furthermore, whether transfers come from the central bank or the government makes no difference. Finally, our results suggest that the effect of helicopter money on public trust in the ECB is ambiguous.     

The impact of (un)conventional expansionary monetary policy on income inequality – lessons from Japan

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on income inequality in Japan, using hitherto unexplored data from the Japan Household Panel Survey. Empirical evidence shows that expansionary monetary policy in Japan has contributed to diminishing the gender pay gap through an increase in working time of women relative to men, but also to increasing the education pay gap. These effects may have materialized via the aggregate demand channel and the labour productivity channel. In contrast, expansionary monetary policy has had no significant impact on the development of the age pay gap.