基于fsQCA方法的煤矿突发事件影响因素组态路径研究

为探究煤矿突发事件的发生机制，以40起煤矿突发事件为案例对象，结合事故致因“2-4”模型（24Model），应用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法，识别煤矿突发事件的组态路径。结果表明，单个条件对煤矿突发事件的解释力较弱，但不安全物态、安全管理体系缺欠、安全文化缺欠和组织外部原因发挥显著影响。通过组态分析得到煤矿突发事件的3条路径，为煤矿事故致因领域的研究提供有益借鉴。     

What Is in a Name? Purchases and Sales of Financial Assets as a Monetary Policy Instrument

This paper studies optimal interest rate and balance sheet policy in a quantitative New Keynesian model with a constrained financial sector, considering commitment versus discretion in monetary policy design and fixing either instrument. Optimal interest rate policy under commitment (discretion) achieves 93.0% (82.6%) of the potential gains to dual instrument monetary policy under commitment. Optimal discretionary dual instrument policy eliminates the cost of commitment limitations and exhibits no inflationary bias. Under commitment, the optimal balance sheet policy eliminates the cost of suboptimal interest rate policy, for example, an interest rate peg. Finally, I compare optimal policies to implementable rules-based policies.     

Medical emergencies and farm productivity in Côte d'Ivoire

The lack of health insurance for smallholder farmers in most sub-Saharan African countries hurts the families and can also negatively affect agriculture production, exports, and tax revenues. This paper analyzes the linkage between medical emergencies and agriculture exports and the corresponding tax revenues for smallholder farmers in Côte d'Ivoire. It uses two complementary datasets: the 2016 Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) smallholder survey and the 2015 Côte d'Ivoire living standard survey. The paper finds that a medical emergency is negatively and significantly associated with a decrease in the likelihood that a smallholder farmer cultivates cocoa of 3.9 percentage points, driving them into poverty and reducing productivity at the lower quantiles. The paper then estimates that medical emergencies can be correlated with the decline in cocoa exports of $853 million and in tax revenues of $125 million, representing 0.2% of the Ivorian gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017.