对中央银行非常规政策退出的几点思考

当前,随着全球经济复苏态势的不断显现,关于非常规货币政策的有序退出也逐步提上了各国央行的议事日程。该文对于非常规货币政策的概念、类别,以及金融危机以来美日欧等主要经济体所采取的非常规政策进行了梳理,在此基础上对于非常规货币政策的效果评价,及非常规货币政策的退出时机、节奏和顺序等战略决策进行了相关探讨和思考。     

突发公共事件中基于网络信息的群体羊群行为分析

鉴于目前我国社会保障机制不健全,导致了在面临突发公共事件时(如地震等),流言混淆视听公众决策的趋同性,使得物价一时间上涨,人心出现动荡,社会安定陷入极大的风险。因此,需要政府加强社会保障制度,在突发事件发生时,有效地保障公众的生命财产安全,有效降低公众的恐慌,避免不利的羊群行为。     

Managing geoenergy-induced seismicity with society

Contemporary and future low-carbon energy supply requires using the deep underground. Ample evidence shows that onshore oil and gas extraction, associated wastewater injection, deep geothermal systems, and carbon capture and storage can induce damaging seismicity. While induced seismicity exhibits symptoms of a potentially controversial issue, research today has been limited to seismic hazard and risk. Here we argue for the need of social scientific insights to inform risk communication and processes of managing geoenergy-induced seismicity with society.     

Measuring the natural yield curve

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the natural yield curve (NYC) – the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to directly affect long-term interest rates (e.g. via quantitative easing) the gap between the short-term real and natural rate is no more a good indicator of the monetary policy stance. We estimate the NYC on US data, document its main properties and show i.a. that in the period 2008 to 2011 the NYC allows to better capture the US monetary policy stance than the short-term natural rate.     

浅谈我国应急物流系统的构建

虽然科技的发展提高了人们对灾害的预报能力,但是大部分的突发事件都是难以预测或者预报时间与发生时间相隔很短,却对提供物资保障的应急物流系统提出了很高的要求,因此对于应急物流系统的研究具有十分重要的现实意义。本文介绍了应急物流和应急物流系统的概念及内涵,提出了对于我国应急物流系统构建的一些思路。     

大地震后城市应急功能的思考

随着我国城市规模的不断扩大,城市灾害呈现出群发多样性、时空耦合性、链状分布等新的特点。我国现有的城市应急体系已经不能完全适应城市应急管理的需要,特别是汶川大地震后反映出了我们在城市应急管理方面的一些不足。对存在的不足给予了总结并提出了相关建议,希望能为我们的城市应急管理体系建设提供参考。     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?

From July to December 2011, the three-month EURIBOR-OIS and EURIBOR-Repo spreads quadrupled and reached 100 basis points due to a stabilization of the EURIBOR and a decrease in the overnight index swap (OIS) and Repo. Using a specific monetary policy announcements and financial indicators database, we find that the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unconventional measures did not systematically have a calming effect: Asset buyout announcements decreased market strains, whereas interest rates and liquidity provision announcements did not. Moreover, liquidity provision seems to have a stressing effect. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings according to which forward guidance crucially determines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.     

Quantitative easing and median income: a state-level analysis

Due to the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve engaged in unconventional monetary policy (QE) to fight the effects of the economic downturn. Literature asserts that QE did have impacts on economic growth and helped alleviate the effects of the recession. Recently, critics have asserted that the benefits of QE may not have been equally distributed across households. In this paper, we build a state-level dataset to investigate the dynamics of QE measures and median income across the U.S states. The findings indicate that, for the period 2008 to 2014, there is statistical evidence that increases in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet correspond with higher nominal median income. However, once we adjust for inflation, the results become statistically insignificant and the impact of QE on median income becomes almost zero.     

应急管理科技支撑能力体系构建及模糊综合评价研究

构建了应急管理科技支撑能力评价指标体系，运用AHP法与模糊灰色综合评价方法对突发事件应急管理科技支撑能力进行定性定量评价。从评价结果可以看出，整个突发事件应急管理支撑体系的能力处于中等偏上,接近“较高”水平，但据高水平还有一段距离。决策层指标中，应对处理阶段科技支撑能力和善后恢复阶段科技支撑能力所占比重很大，分别为65.5%、29.7%;预防准备阶段科技支撑能力所占比重相对较小。二级指标中，所占比重较大的有风险预防监测科技支撑能力，风险诊断预警科技支撑能力，决策指挥科技支撑能力，信息资源整合科技支撑能力，损失评估处理科技支撑能力，恢复重建科技支撑能力。     

企业突发环境事件风险评估编制技术要点探讨

环境风险评估包括风险识别、风险分析和风险评价的全过程,突发环境事件风险评估对于企业增强风险防控和事故应对能力具有重要意义。论文以江苏某食品制造企业为例,从突发环境事件风险评估的程序出发,对环境风险识别、突发环境事件情景分析、风险防控措施和应急管理差距分析、风险等级划分等编制技术要点进行分析和说明,为企业开展突发环境事件风险评估提供一定的参考。