Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's unconventional monetary policies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid‐2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year‐on‐year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1–17Q2, respectively.     

后危机时代美欧货币政策的成效分析与诱因比较

美国金融海啸与欧元区主权债务危机的爆发推动了非传统货币政策工具的运用,改变了发达国家对危机前货币政策的共识。央行资产负债表变动和前瞻性指引成了危机期间美欧频繁使用的量化宽松政策,这些政策使美国从金融海啸中走出来并重拾经济复兴之路。但欧元区主权债务危机的反复爆发和传染表明,这些政策要充分发挥作用尚需要超国家的欧洲政治经济机构的整合。美国的成功取决于美国联邦政府和货币机构作为一个整体,愿意共同合作并做出对国家最有利的事情,而且共同服从国家利益的观念得到社会普遍的认可和尊重。欧元区走不出危机泥潭、经济继续衰退主要源于：一是危机解决的公共品属性诱发了成员国的集体行动和道德风险;二是货币政策引发的利益冲突与强权政治的影响;三是作为一个松散的联邦,当共同面对危机问题时,缺乏一个超国家的权威政府,能够在促进公共利益上做出正确的政策决策。     

中国政府应急物资的储备模式研究

建立应急救援物资、生活必需品及应急处置装备制度是应对突发事件的重要保障。当前,中国建立了"分责管理、分级负责、属地为主"的应急体制,并在处理突发事件中取得了良好效果,但也存在着应急物资储备数量少、品种单一及科学的保障能力评估体系不健全等问题。为此,中国应优化应急物资储备模式与体系,进一步增强应急物资保障能力。     

Targeting and distribution in complex emergencies: Participatory management of humanitarian food assistance

The extensive literature on community participation in the targeting and management of humanitarian food assistance suggests that participatory approaches work best in slow-onset emergencies with no conflict or displacement. Yet the policies of many agencies—and compliance with Sphere minimum standards—require that the recipient community participate in decisions about the assistance they receive including targeting, regardless of the causes of the emergency. This paper analyzes current practice in the targeting and management of humanitarian food assistance in complex emergencies, the constraints to recipient communities’ participation, and the possibilities for participatory approaches to improve targeting.     

构建公共财政下的政府应急管理保障机制

近年来，世界范围内频频爆发了一系列重大的突发性公共事件，严重影响了当地的经济发展和社会稳定。针对突发事件，本文通过阐述我国政府在应急管理中存在的问题，结合应急管理过程的特点，提出了公共财政下构建应急管理保障机制的思路。     

论文艺创新胆识

作家、艺术家的胆识可分为创作胆量、表演胆量、发表胆量及相应的见识等。文艺创作和艺术表演的胆识突出地表现在敢于创新，敢于“反常突破”。创造成果的独特性往往反映了创造者的个性独特性，表现了创造者独特的气质、性格、兴趣、志向等个性特征，同时也需要创造者的勇气和魄力。文艺要标新立异就应当有胆量，但胆量的放开总得有个“度”。这个“度”还突出地体现在如何表现“性”、如何展现人体、如何借鉴西方的一些表现形式等问题上。     

面向群体性突发公共事件的应急管理系统研究

在发生群体性突发公共事件时,缺少开放的信息采集平台和有效的信息处理能力将会使得多方救援力量间缺少好的沟通,各方救援力量在突发事件发生后不能迅速各司其职、协调配合地完成救援工作,直接影响群体性突发公共事件的整体救援效率。因此,为了突破经验型突发事件所引起的不足,本文研究了面向群体性突发公共事件的应急管理系统,分析了系统的基本需求,并给出了系统的多层次体系架构设计。     

Cross-Sectoral Coordination of Disaster Relief

Abstract

Coordinating organizational activity across different sectors is crucial in disaster management. We analysed the response of 291 aid workers to the Haiti earthquake in 2010 and found that common incentives and a high degree of equality among aid organizations positively affected perceived network coordination. Large and public organizations were more likely to take leadership roles and high numbers of public organizations involved in the disaster response network led to improved network coordination. These results indicate the need for mechanisms that enable smaller and non-profit organizations to participate in network coordination and leadership.     

非常规突发事件干预决策机制的效用评估

非常规突发事件应对工作是一项涉及面广、技术性强、社会影响大的系统工程,建立非常规突发事件应对的干预决策机制具有极其重要的意义。本文就干预决策机制的效用进行研讨,构建了基于时间序列相似性度量的协调度函数,提出了效用评估的整体思路和实施方案,为优化我国非常规突发事件应对管理提供有价值的参考。     

When the earth shakes … and science with it. The management and communication of uncertainty in the L’Aquila earthquake

In the spring of 2009, a strong earthquake shook the Italian city of L’Aquila and the region surrounding it. Besides the tragedy of human and material losses, the disaster triggered an unprecedented series of legal consequences. In this paper, we take the L’Aquila case, in all its psychological, social and legal controversies as exemplary for reflecting on how uncertainty can be recognized, treated and communicated in the context of mass emergencies. We examine the inherent path-dependency and multidimensional nature of uncertainty by projecting it along a number of axes, analyzing how the different components evolve and interact with each other. We show that contradictions, controversies and conflicts are bound to arise in the practice of expert advice for public policy as a result of: 1) the improper reduction of the overall situational uncertainty to its scientific component only; 2) the treatment and communication of scientific uncertainty as an independent variable that can be analyzed and computed in isolation from ethical, political and societal concerns. Finally, we provide some suggestions about a more integrated approach to expert advice for public policy.