非常规人才发现、培养和使用的战略思考

以非标准化和个性化的＂非常规人才＂为研究对象,认为需要建立一种机制以确保非常规人才的发现、培养和使用,并视其为一个过程连续体的三个环节。基于这三个环节作者提出了建议性的认知逻辑和分析方法：在发现环节应遵循察举路径;在培养环节要去功利导向,采用农业生产模式;在使用环节,要坚持人文导向和理性启蒙并举。非常规人才的培养不仅是一个教育问题,更是一个复杂的社会问题。     

积极财政政策对中国宏观经济的动态时变影响 ——以重大突发公共卫生事件为视角

采用带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型(T V P-V A R),基于1999年1月-2020年8月的月度数据动态识别中国积极财政政策对宏观经济的影响,并进一步刻画不同时点的重大突发公共卫生事件下积极财政政策与宏观经济之间的变动关系.研究结果表明:基于时变脉冲响应分析发现,财政政策对中国宏观经济波动存在显著的时变特征,表现出明显的非线性关系,不同时期的财政政策工具对宏观经济影响存在差异;基于时点脉冲响应分析发现,重大突发公共卫生事件下积极财政政策有利于促进产出、消费及贸易,但在短期会引起通货紧缩.对新冠肺炎疫情和"非典"疫情冲击的比较发现,积极财政政策对"新冠"疫情的刺激作用较显著,财政支出与财政收入政策对两次疫情下中国宏观经济影响在前期存在差异.     

非常规油气资源开发对美国复兴制造业的影响

美国非常规油气资源大规模开采导致天然气价格大幅度下降,为企业创造了新的低成本竞争优势,为制造业复兴提供了动力。但是,能源密集型制造业的兴起不利于美国政府发展先进制造业的努力。美国非常规油气资源的大规模开发引发的制造业投资和产出增加将减少中国制成品的出口,也为中国转变出口方式、促进制造业转型升级提供了机遇。     

Alternative Monetary Targets,Instruments and Future Monetary Policy Frameworks

ABSTRACT

This article expands on the debate of whether merely controlling inflation can be considered a good outcome in terms of monetary policy, discussing proposals for adopting alternative monetary targets (e.g., price level, nominal GDP), alternative instruments (e.g., monetary finance, central bank digital currencies), for enlarging central banks' mandates (e.g., incorporating employment, wages, inequality, environmental objectives) and for the design of future monetary policy frameworks.

We argue that in the coming years, central banks should not simply maintain their pre-2008 standards by de-implementing unconventional monetary policies. Instead, they must take advantage of their past and recent experiences in order to improve, under an evolutionary perspective, future monetary policy and financial stability frameworks. Based on this, measures implemented since the 2008 crisis would have three possible treatments in new frameworks: i) be discarded, due to their predominantly adverse effects; ii) not be regularly implemented, but be used as backstop mechanisms if needed; iii) be incorporated as regular measures of monetary policy/financial stability frameworks. Accordingly, monetary and financial stability authorities will increasingly need to evolve and engage in a continuously adaptive and innovative process in order to face challenges posed by financial markets that are becoming more dynamic, innovative, complex, interconnected and globalised.     

A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates

Shadow short rate (SSR) estimates are generated regressors proposed as a proxy for policy interest rates during unconventional monetary policy (UMP) periods. However, using the Wu and Xia (2016) shadow/lower-bound model, I show that SSR estimates can be sensitive to minor choices in their estimation. Used subsequently in a small macroeconomic model, those sensitivities lead to wide variations in the inferred effects of UMP on inflation and unemployment outcomes. Therefore, it should not be presumed that any SSR series will necessarily be quantitatively useful. Vetting SSR series allows appropriate SSR series to be retained within the suite of UMP indicators.     

Uncovered Interest Parity,Forward Guidance and the Exchange Rate

Under uncovered interest parity (UIP), the size of the effect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate differentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected. Empirical evidence using U.S., euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate differentials in the near (distant) future are shown to have much larger (smaller) effects on the real exchange rate than is implied by UIP. Some possible explanations are discussed.     

基于能力分配的非常规突发事件实施流程模型研究

近年来,非常规突发事件频发,对突发事件的相关研究也日益变得急迫和需要。对突发事件的有效应对是处置突发事件的关键之一,因此提出将实施活动基元和基于能力分配的模式融入到突发事件实施过程中形成非常规突发事件实施流程,并用大连7.16输油管道爆炸实际案例对此流程进行了证明,体现了该流程处置突发事件的时效性和应对事件发展的动态性,为及时有效的实施非常规突发事件应对活动提供了良好的依据。     

刍议酒店突发事件的应急管理

酒店是个全方位开放的公共场所,是向消费者提供旅游、住宿、餐饮、娱乐、购物和交际的经营性企业。由于酒店的特殊经营环境,它所面临的突发事件要远远高于其它企业,为了更加有效地应对和处理酒店的突发事件,酒店有必要完善对突发事件的管理,以降低对酒店造成的不利影响和损失。本文从突发事件自身的特点、处理突发事件的原则及突发事件的应急管理及对应急管理的一些认识误区作出剖析。     

The time-varying relationship between credit spreads and employment growth

After the global financial crisis, several central banks introduced unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing (QE). If QE increases asset prices, but does not boost the real economy to the same extent, the relationship between credit spreads and employment growth will weaken. This study investigates this issue for the U.S. in a moving-windows framework. Our results suggest that the link between credit spreads and employment growth is lower during bubbles and recessions. We also find that the relationship weakened after the Fed introduced QE.     

企业突发环境事件应急预案的编制工作要点

依法依规做好企业突发环境事件应急预案的编制工作,建立切实有效的企业突发环境事件应对及管理机制,有助于源头预防和高效应对突发环境事件。论文对企业突发环境事件应急预案的编制的关键问题进行了探讨。