利益调控：我国地方政府治理群体性突发事件的路径

日益频发、高发的群体性突发事件已经影响到了社会主义和谐社会的构建进程。尽管群体性突发事件的诱因很多,但都可以归结于各利益主体之间的利益冲突。以党的十八届三中全会关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定精神为指针,以完善利益分配均衡机制、政府官员问责机制、利益表达机制和社会保障机制为抓手,着力协调和控制利益冲突,构建一套预防性强、针对性强、操作性强的利益调控机制是地方政府治理群体性突发事件的重要路径。     

非常规油气资源开发对美国复兴制造业的影响

美国非常规油气资源大规模开采导致天然气价格大幅度下降,为企业创造了新的低成本竞争优势,为制造业复兴提供了动力。但是,能源密集型制造业的兴起不利于美国政府发展先进制造业的努力。美国非常规油气资源的大规模开发引发的制造业投资和产出增加将减少中国制成品的出口,也为中国转变出口方式、促进制造业转型升级提供了机遇。     

应对突发公共事件的国家治理体系建设的思考

中国幅员辽阔、人口众多、突发公共事件频发,此次从武汉爆发新型冠状肺炎疫情引发政府、社会民众、专家对我国应急治理体系的思考。通过分析我国应对突发公共事件存在的不足,从建立联防联控机制、建立应急物资储备库、做好政务信息化系统建设、注意引导舆情等几方面给出建议,期望进一步加快国家应急管理体系和治理能力现代化建设步伐。     

From conventional to unconventional monetary policies: The failure of the market‐maker of last resort

This paper analyses the new role of market‐maker of last resort openly assumed by central banks since the 2008 financial crisis revealed the increasing impact of noninterest‐income activities on banks' balance sheets. A brief review of the distinction between conventional and unconventional monetary policies shows that the inflexion point from lender of last resort to market‐maker of last resort is given by the extension of central bank intervention to other markets than the bank reserves markets. Herein, it is explained how the market‐maker of last resort role is as counterproductive as its predecessor in putting the economy back on track. We show that the main problem of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies is that they distort price signals, particularly asset prices, in their attempt to reignite economic growth. Instead of correcting cyclical fluctuations, the policies of the market‐maker of last resort prevent the cyclical divergences between financial and goods sectors from readjusting.     

微波热效应对页岩结构热损伤的影响规律

页岩油气资源作为一种非常规油气资源因其孔隙率低、渗透率等原因造成其开采难度高、经济效益低.近年来,微波作为一种新型的加热技术在页岩油气增产领域逐渐被重视并开展了一系列的研究.微波热效应可以破坏岩石结构,有效地提高油气的渗透率,降低开采的难度,研究微波辐照下页岩的热损伤过程与机制对页岩油气资源的开采具有重要意义.本研究利用自制微波加热设备对页岩进行辐照试验,探究了辐照温度(500～900℃)对页岩结构损伤的影响规律.利用扫描电子显微镜、X射线衍射光谱仪(XRD)、X射线荧光光谱仪(XRF)、综合热分析仪(TG—DSC)等分析测试手段揭示了微波辐照下页岩的微观结构与矿物晶体物相演化规律,并建立了微波辐照温度与其孔隙率的关系.研究表明,微波辐照可以对页岩造成不可逆的热损伤,使得页岩的裂缝与孔隙增多,为页岩油气运移开通渗滤通道,降低了页岩油气资源的开采难度.本研究的结果对利用微波加热开发页岩油气资源具有重要意义.     

日本超宽松货币政策的历程、效果及启示

日本央行提前启动了开放式资产购买措施,显示了尽快实现2％通胀目标的决心,但其会否重蹈历史的覆辙,还是会一举扭转日本经济长期的窘境,值得关注。文章在梳理日本央行长期实施超宽松政策历程的基础上,分析日本超宽松政策的效果,探究其陷入“流动性陷阱”的原因,并从中总结实施超宽松货币政策的经验和教训,以便能更好地理解货币宽松政策的传导机制、效果与局限性。     

Does unconventional monetary policy affect inequality? Evidence from Japan

Inequality has been largely ignored in the literature and practice of monetary policy, but is gaining more attention recently. Here, we exclusively focus on the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on inequality. We look at how the recent UMP in Japan affected inequality, using household survey data. Our vector auto regression (VAR) results show that UMP widened income inequality after 2008Q3 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resumed its zero-interest rate policy and reinstated UMP. This is largely due to the portfolio channel. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically analyse the distributional impact of UMP. Japan’s extensive experience with UMP may hold important policy implications for other countries.     

收益率曲线控制的历史演进、理论基础及影响

近期收益率曲线控制问题引起业界广泛关注.为此,全面回顾了收益率曲线控制的历史,并阐述了收益率曲线控制的思想渊源、存在的争议及传导机制,以构建收益率曲线控制的理论基础.收益率曲线控制影响经济增长的传导机制可能有信号效应、组合再平衡效应、流量效应、财富效应.我国未来如果广泛实施收益率曲线控制可能会产生以下影响:一是促进经济复苏,二是资产价格大幅上涨,三是金融风险加大,四是宏观杠杆率大幅上升,五是损害央行信誉.     

Understanding the effects of growing central bank balance sheets on investment

What role does unconventional monetary policy – and particularly unconventional policies such as private asset purchases under quantitative easing or lender of last resort scheme – play in influencing economic growth directly? The literature looks at the effects of post-2007 central bank asset purchases on GDP growth and – in limited cases – on investment. Yet academics and central bankers have not tried to understand the effects of private securities purchases alone, while controlling for broader macroeconomic effects. This article summarises the existing literature, documenting the widespread use of private securities purchases by central banks across the world. The literature shows the potentially beneficial effects of these purchases, pointing the way for further scholarly work about central banks' private securities purchases.     

非常规油气开发技术标准分析

为缩小国内外非常规油气开发技术差异,确保国内非常规油气开发作业安全可靠,通过分析国内外页岩气、致密油(气)、煤层气、稠油和天然气水合物等资源开发环境和技术的差异,梳理相关领域的开发技术标准,在国内海、陆非常规油气开发技术标准的制定和研究方面给出了建议,供相关技术人员参考。