Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession

In response to the 2008–2009 crisis, faced with distressed financial intermediaries, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked in longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) with full allotment. Using an estimated DSGE model with a frictional banking sector, we find that such liquidity injections have played a key role in averting a major credit crunch. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, absent these nonconventional measures, output, consumption, investment, and the GDP deflator would have been 2.5%, 0.5%, 9.7%, and 0.5% lower on average over 2009, respectively.     

Equity market and the transmission channels of monetary policy: Before and after the zero lower bound

We examine the effectiveness of the interest rate channel and the credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound (ZLB), using intraday stock returns. We construct a number of industry-specific and firm-specific indicators to capture the sensitivity of firms' demand to interest rates (interest rate channel) and firms' financial constraints (credit channel). We find that the transmission of monetary policy has shifted across both periods. Conventional monetary policy works through both the neoclassical interest rate channel and the credit channel, while unconventional policy is propagated primarily via the credit channel which became even more effective at the ZLB. Before the ZLB the transmission channels operate primarily through target rate shocks rather than forward guidance announcements, whereas both forward guidance and large scale asset purchases were equally important for the credit channel at the ZLB. We also find strong evidence that transmission channels are asymmetric depending on the state of the stock market (bull/bear, tighter/easier credit conditions, high/low volatility), and the type of policy surprises (positive/negative). Our findings are robust with respect to a number of model extensions and alternative specifications.     

Banks' noninterest income and securities holdings in a low interest rate environment: The case of Italy

Using a sample of 440 Italian banks over the period 2007–2016, we find that low interest rates motivate banks to expand their fee and commission income and to restructure their securities portfolios. A granular breakdown suggests that banks grow noninterest income in various ways, including portfolio management, brokerage and consultancy services and increase fee income from current account and payment services. In addition, banks rebalance securities portfolios away from those “held for trading” to securities “available for sale” and “held to maturity.” Our findings allude to different behavior between large and small banks: while larger banks increase brokerage, consultancy and portfolio management services, smaller banks generate fees from customer current accounts.     

Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment

This paper estimates, using Bayesian and global VARs, the spillover effects of unconventional fiscal and monetary policies implemented in the United States and in the Eurozone during the last decade. Consumer confidence and investor sentiment indicators are introduced in the models in order to highlight the signalling channel in the responses to economic policy innovations in times of crisis. Our results reveal that consumer and investor perceptions of innovative economic measures are relevant to study the pass-through of economic policies to the real sector in times of crisis and zero lower bound interest rates. In particular, the signalling channel plays an important role in successful unconventional economic policies. Moreover, if unconventional economic policies have an impact abroad, the effects are similar to those measured in the domestic country/region. Consequently, coordination and transparency are a prerequisite for ensuring short-term growth after a global financial crisis.     

The effect of ECB monetary policies on interest rates and volumes

This article assesses the transmission of ECB monetary policies, conventional and unconventional, to both interest rates and lending volumes or bond issuance for three types of different economic agents through five different markets: sovereign bonds at 6-month, 5-year and 10-year horizons, loans to nonfinancial corporations and housing loans to households, during the financial crisis, and for the four largest economies of the euro area. We look at three different unconventional tools: excess liquidity, longer-term refinancing operations and securities held for monetary policy purposes following the decomposition of the ECB’s Weekly Financial Statements. We first identify series of ECB policy shocks at the euro area aggregate level by removing the systematic component of each series and controlling for announcement effects. We second include these exogenous shocks in country-specific structural VAR, in which we control for credit demand. The main result is that only the pass-through from the ECB rate to interest rates has been effective. Unconventional policies have had uneven effects and primarily on interest rates.     

Unconventional monetary policy and the dollar–euro exchange rate: first results from time-series analysis

This article examines the impact on the US dollar–euro (USD–EUR) exchange rate of the unconventional monetary policy conducted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). To that end, we make use of time-series analysis to obtain a reasonable long-run and short run representation of the data generation process and use dummy variables to study how announcements about monetary policy changes can affect the USD–EUR exchange rate. Our results indicate that the announcement and subsequent implementation of such measures by the ECB would have caused an appreciation of the dollar, while those by the Fed would have caused a depreciation of the dollar.     

Responding to QE taper from the receiving end

This paper analyses the spillovers of quantitative easing (QE) and their taper in India, as there could be country-specific nuances that qualify the inferences thrown up by cross-country studies, and therefore, can enrich and empower the on-going debate. Using a combination of event study analyses, generalized method of moments and VAR estimates, it finds that QEs have significantly altered monetary conditions in India. Among the QEs, QE1 had the largest impact and taper announcement had a strong negative impact, with the spillovers working mainly through the portfolio rebalancing channel, followed by the liquidity channel. Going forward, emerging economies are likely to take into account these spillovers in the conduct of monetary policy, with implications for both policy autonomy and global welfare.     

突发公共卫生事件中人道物流的应急法律机制

人道物流为突发公共卫生事件防疫工作提供人道援助物资的仓储、运输和配送等服务,对防控疫情有重要意义。在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发生后,国内外慈善团体和个人捐赠了大量应急物资,我国的人道物流体系依照相关应急法律的规定迅速响应,在实施法律的同时也检验着法律的规定。目前,我国已经建立了由相关单行法和行政法规、部门规章、地方性法规等构成的应急法律体系来规范突发公共卫生事件中的应急管理。从实施情况来看,我国人道物流相关的部分法律规范层级较低,缺乏专门性规定。尤其是在交通卫生检疫、行政征用和末端物流配送等环节还存在薄弱点,需要加强相关立法、严格执行交通卫生检疫制度、细化行政征用规则、采取事中监督与事后监管,从立法、执法和守法的角度完善我国突发公共卫生事件中的人道物流应急法律制度,提高疫情防控效率。     

突发事件知识虚拟联合体的构建

基于对非常规突发事件的特征分析,阐述了应急信息资源的现状,探讨了外部突发事件知识体系和外部突发事件虚拟联合体的构建障碍,构建了城市突发事件知识虚拟联合体平台,从而为城市应急管理提供理论支持和技术支撑。     

高校官方微博突发事件的舆情传播规律

微博的迅猛发展,得到了政府部门的高度重视、纷纷开启政务微博。高校也不例外。以高校官方微博发布的突发事件为例。从传播的路径、情感值、周期性这三个方面进行分析,从而揭示高校官方微博在突发事件中的传播规律,并且有针对性的提出高校官方微博管理的几点建议。