Adam Smith on lotteries: an interpretation and formal restatement

The paper concerns a neglected aspect of the Wealth of Nations (with the notable exception of D. Levy 1999 Levy, D. M. 1999. “Adam Smith’s Katallactic Model of Gambling: Approbation from the Spectator.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21 (1): 81–91. doi:10.1017/S1053837200002868.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), dealing directly with decision under risk. In a few pages from book I, chapter 10, Adam Smith explicitly named “lotteries” various objects of choice (possible occupations, or investment opportunities, for instance) and provided an analysis which standard expected utility glasses would hardly fit. Taking this into account allows a better understanding of the part played by typical characters like the “projector” or the “sober man”, in such matters as Smith’s conception of entrepreneurship or of the credit market. The use of some modern concepts in decision analysis (inverse stochastic dominance, rank dependent utility, prudence toward risk), is a means to show the existence, in Smith’s work, of an original theory from decision under risk, where his analysis of lotteries in the Wealth of Nations is consistent with statements from his moral philosophy on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses and to the regulating part played by the impartial spectator.     

Convergence of optimal expected utility for a sequence of discrete‐time markets

We examine Kreps' conjecture that optimal expected utility in the classic Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) economy is the limit of optimal expected utility for a sequence of discrete‐time economies that “approach” the BSM economy in a natural sense: The nth discrete‐time economy is generated by a scaled n‐step random walk, based on an unscaled random variable ζ with mean 0, variance 1, and bounded support. We confirm Kreps' conjecture if the consumer's utility function U has asymptotic elasticity strictly less than one, and we provide a counterexample to the conjecture for a utility function U with asymptotic elasticity equal to 1, for ζ such that .     

Health state utilities associated with caring for an individual with cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL)

Abstract

Aim

Cutaneous T-cell Lymphoma (CTCL) is a rare form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma characterized by skin lesions, which can negatively impact the quality of life of both patients and their caregivers. The Decision Support Unit (DSU) at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK recently outlined a rationale for the inclusion of caregiver burden in economic evaluations. This study aimed to estimate utilities for health states associated with being a caregiver for an individual with CTCL at different stages of treatment.     

Convex duality and Orlicz spaces in expected utility maximization

In this paper, we report further progress toward a complete theory of state‐independent expected utility maximization with semimartingale price processes for arbitrary utility function. Without any technical assumptions, we establish a surprising Fenchel duality result on conjugate Orlicz spaces, offering a new economic insight into the nature of primal optima and providing a fresh perspective on the classical papers of Kramkov and Schachermayer. The analysis points to an intriguing interplay between no‐arbitrage conditions and standard convex optimization and motivates the study of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing for Orlicz tame strategies.     

On equity market inefficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

We show that during the weeks following the initiation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States equity market was inefficient. This is demonstrated by showing that utility maximizing agents over the time period ranging from mid-February to late March 2020 can generate statistically significant profits by utilizing only historical price and virus related data to forecast future equity ETF returns. We generalize Merton’s optimal portfolio problem using a novel method based upon a likelihood ratio in order to construct a dynamic trading strategy for utility maximizing agents. These strategies are shown to have statistically significant profitability and strong risk and performance statistics during the COVID-19 time-frame.     

CO—CO型家族企业继承人选择分析

我国民营企业以家族企业为主要形式,但由于家族企业的复杂性,很难有突破。文章假设了一种具有广泛现实基础的CO-CO家族继承人选择模式,从经济学角度分析家族企业继承过程中的影响因素,并提出了构建家族企业选出恰当人选的环境氛围的建议。     

Differentiability properties of rank-linear utilities

We study the differentiability properties of concave functionals defined as integrals of the quantile. These functionals generalize the rank dependent expected utility and are called rank-linear utilities in decision theory. Their superdifferential is described as well as the set of random variables where they are Gâteaux-differentiable. Our results generalize those obtained for the rank dependent expected utility in Ref. [Carlier, G., Dana, R.-A., 2003. Core of a convex distortion of a probability. Journal of Economic Theory 113, 199–222.].     

公众效用约束视角下强化国家审计的治理逻辑及其制度供给

社会公众参与国家治理日益成为国家治理体系的重要组成部分。在政治经济学框架下将社会公众参与国家治理的过程与功能提炼为公众效用约束,并通过构建一个简洁的地方政府公共支出结构选择模型阐明公众效用约束机制。结合公众效用软约束下中国地方发展型政府行为的经济影响以及直接构建公众效用约束机制面临的问题,从理论上解释了中央政府强化国家审计的治理逻辑。中国特色社会主义国家审计制度供给可以从审计方法流程、审计业务体系、审计结果运用等方面进行完善,全面评估效用结果、深度契合效用目标与有效实施问责约束,实现公众效用约束机制的间接构造,成为公共权力治理的“内部—经常性激励约束机制”,从而可以更好地适应当前发展阶段和体制背景下国家治理的需要。     

Optimal execution with uncertain order fills in Almgren–Chriss framework

The classical price impact model of Almgren and Chriss is extended to incorporate the uncertainty of order fills. The extended model can be recast as alternatives to uncertain impact models and stochastic liquidity models. Optimal strategies are determined by maximizing the expected final profit and loss (P&L) and various P&L-risk tradeoffs including utility maximization. Closed form expressions for optimal strategies are obtained in linear cases. The results suggest a type of adaptive volume weighted average price, adaptive percentage of volume and adaptive Almgren–Chriss strategies. VWAP and classical Almgren–Chriss strategies are recovered as limiting cases with a different characteristic time scale of liquidation for the latter.     

Value creation through stakeholder synergy

Our “stakeholder synergy” perspective identifies new value creation opportunities that are especially effective strategically because a single strategic action (1) increases different types of value for two or more essential stakeholder groups simultaneously, and (2) does not reduce the value already received by any other essential stakeholder group. This result is obtainable because multiple potential sources of value creation exist for each essential stakeholder group. Actions that meet these criteria increase the size of the value “pie” available for essential stakeholder groups, and thereby serve to attract exceptional stakeholders and obtain their increasing effort and commitment. The stakeholder synergy perspective extends stakeholder theory further into the strategy realm, and offers insights for realizing broader value creation that is more likely to produce sustainable competitive advantage. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.