The implied internal rate of return in conventional residual valuations of development sites

Explicit discounted cash flow methods are used in many countries to assess the value of real estate investments or their likely rate of return given a particular price. These are typically supplemented by simpler models for the purpose of estimating market value, leading to debate about different approaches. A parallel situation exists in the case of UK development sites: both cash flow appraisals and simpler residual valuations are used to assess site values. Yet debate here has been limited, even though traditional residual valuations involve steps that depart from project appraisal practices used in mainstream capital budgeting. We explore the relationship between the profit and interest allowances used in traditional residual valuations and the internal rates of return that they appear to imply. Published residual valuations typically allow for profit through use of a simple proportionate relationship between required profit and the cost or final value of a scheme. They also show limited variation in their profit assumptions, but this implies large differences in expected IRRs. Simulated examples then illustrate the implications of applying standard profit-on-cost rates to schemes of different lengths and with different levels of land value. Findings for project duration, in particular, are noteworthy since they indicate that lower IRRs are implied for longer projects, though this relationship is not necessarily rational.     

Brownfield risk communication and evaluation

Brownfield development is a risky business requiring specific knowledge and sensible judgement in order to create valuable real estate capital. This paper approaches brownfield risk in a multi-criterion, multi-actor interactive framework, taking into account the risks perceived and communicated by key actors. The paper begins with the development of a generic risk evaluation model using the analytical hierarchical process; this is followed by a primary purposive survey of experts’ stated-preference for weighting, ranking and scoring of risk factors developed earlier by the authors. The risk evaluation leads to a consistent hierarchy of risk factors influence brownfield decisions in the Melbourne context. Results indicate that site specific and project risks are the most important in brownfield development decision-making. Financial and market and planning risks are moderately important. Political and legal and socio-economic risks are relatively less important. The findings also indicate some inter sub-group variation in the relative importance of the risk factors. Developers rate financial and market and site specific risks most highly. Least of the developers’ concern is the socio-economic risk. Planners and consultants rate site specific and project risks highly. The AHP-based risk evaluation model is a new addition to the literature, and the findings may help improve explicit evaluation and communication in brownfield project financial decision and value reporting.     

Convergent validity in contingent valuation: an application to the willingness to pay for national climate change mitigation targets in Germany

This stated preferences survey determines the willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation policies using a representative sample of the German population. WTP is compared across three valuation question formats in a split sample design: the dichotomous choice (DC) referendum, the dissonance minimizing (DM) referendum and the two‐way payment ladder (TWPL). The influence of multinational cooperation on WTP is assessed by variation in the hypothetical scenarios. We demonstrate that the DM referendum and the TWPL, two question formats that induce similar response incentives, yield equal mean WTPs. Multinational cooperation did not change WTP in any of the question formats. Implications for current contingent valuation practice are discussed.     

Design Factors Influencing Willingness‐to‐Pay Estimates in the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak (BDM) Mechanism and the Non‐hypothetical Choice Experiment: A Case of Biofortified Maize in Zambia

Two of the experimental methods used to estimate willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for a non‐market good, the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak (BDM) mechanism and the non‐hypothetical choice experiment (nHCE) often lead to significantly different WTP estimates, complicating the choice between the methods. In Zambia the same group of researchers used both techniques to evaluate WTP for orange maize, which provides more vitamin A than other varieties. This provided an opportunity to analyse the sources of the difference. In the BDM experiment, one group of respondents was provided with more training opportunities than the other, and made higher bids. Accounting for lexicographic behaviour in the nHCE reduced the estimated WTP. These two design factors together resulted in a decrease in the WTP difference for orange maize (1,279–632 ZMK) although the difference remains statistically significant. More training was also shown to eliminate the effects of different orders in which maize varieties were presented.     

The brave new world of valuing life sciences and healthcare enterprises

Life sciences and healthcare enterprises represent the largest industry in the U.S. economy. Given the importance of this sector, there is increasing demand for financial valuation of both publicly and privately held companies. At the same time, accurate valuation is particularly difficult in light of shifting business models, the current economy, intellectual property rights issues, continuous innovation in the sector, changing population demographics, quality issues, and government involvement in healthcare debate, discussion, and regulation. Herein, we examine the changing and increasingly problematic valuation of life sciences and healthcare enterprises that have obvious importance from a social welfare perspective.     

公充价值计量的估值方法和影响因素分析

建立公开的市场价格体系,优化市场资产的估价系统,使各种资产的市价很好地反映其真实价值。同时,充分发挥资产评估中中介、物价等机构应有的监管作用,建立起完善的监督、制约、平衡机制,防止利用公允价值进行造假;提高公允价值的可操作性,为公允价值全面应用提供保障。同时,加强计量理论研究,有利于公允价值在操作层面上的推广,从公充价值计量的估值方法和应用进行探讨,从而改善企业业绩,设计最优的路径。     

自然资源价值核算浅析

长期以来人们一直认为自然资源没有价值,所以93年以前的SNA体系没有把自然资源和环境核算包括在内。但是随着环境恶化和自然资源越来越稀缺,自然资源无价值的观点无法继续立足。本文首先就自然资源的价值观进行了讨论,然后阐述了自然资源价值论的理论依据,即劳动价值论,最后讨论了自然资源的估价方法。     

Applications of randomized low discrepancy sequences to the valuation of complex securities

This paper deals with a recent modification of the Monte Carlo method known as quasi-random Monte Carlo. Under this approach, one uses specially selected deterministic sequences rather than random sequences as in Monte Carlo. These special sequences are known as low discrepancy sequences and have the property that they tend to be evenly dispersed throughout the unit cube. For many applications in finance, the use of low discrepancy sequences seems to provide more accurate answers than random sequences. One of the main drawbacks of the use of low discrepancy sequences is that there is no obvious method of computing the standard error of the estimate. This means that in performing the calculations, there is no clear termination criterion for the number of points to use. We address this issue here and consider a partial randomization of Owen's technique for overcoming this problem. The proposed method can be applied to much higher dimensions where it would be computationally infeasible for Owen's technique. The efficiency of these procedures is compared using a particular derivative security. The exact price of this security can be calculated very simply and so we have a benchmark against which to test our calculations. We find that our procedures give promising results even for very high dimensions. Statistical tests are also conducted to support the confidence statement drawn from these procedures.     

Aggregating Incomplete Lists of Journal Rankings: An Application to Academic Accounting Journals*

We introduce a branch‐and‐cut algorithm to aggregate published journal rankings based on subsets of the accounting literature in order to create a consensus ranking. The aggregate ranking allows specialist and regional journals, which may only be ranked in a limited number of studies, to be placed with respect to each other and with respect to the generalist journals that are usually included in ranking studies. The approach we develop is a significant advance over ad hoc approaches to aggregating journal rankings that have appeared in the literature and may provide a theoretically sound and replicable basis for further exploration of the concept of journal quality and the stability of journal rankings over time and ranking methods.     

银行间债券市场含权债估值问题研究

文章分析了银行间市场含权债实际成交价格的变动规律,介绍了市场实践中常用的定价方法,并对以理论模型为基础的一般估值方法进行了研究。结果发现,虽然目前市场上含权债的交易价格基本合理,但估值实践中较少利用理论模型,一般参考市价简单处理。含权债定价可以从建立二项式模型开始,逐步改变目前市场定价随意、缺少理论支撑的现状。