Heteroscedasticity and Non-Monotonic Efficiency Effects of a Stochastic Frontier Model

We consider a model that provides flexible parameterizations of the exogenous influences on inefficiency. In particular, we demonstrate the model's unique property of accommodating non-monotonic efficiency effect. With this non-monotonicity, production efficiency no longer increases or decreases monotonically with the exogenous influence; instead, the relationship can shifts within the sample. Our empirical example shows that variables can indeed have non-monotonic effects on efficiency. Furthermore, ignoring non-monotonicity is shown to yield an inferior estimation of the model, which sometimes results in opposite predictions concerning the data.     

The Effect of Respondent Experience/Knowledge in the Elicitation of Contingent Values: An Investigation of Convergent Validity,Procedural Invariance and Reliability

Tests of convergent validity and procedural invariance were used to investigate whether individuals lacking direct experience with a commodity can provide valid responses to contingent-valuation questions eliciting ex post use values. Convergent validity between samples with and without experience was shown to hold for dichotomous-choice responses, but not for open-ended responses.     

FDI引入对中国就业效应分析

伴随着我国开放政策的深化和加入WTO,FDI的就业效应日趋成为学者们的重要研究课题。本文通过对FDI较为系统地分析,认识到FDI的就业效应更应该是一种间接和长远的效应,且其具有空间性和时间性特征。因此本文从FDI的关联性和长远的动态特征等方面对其就业效应进行分析。     

基于实物期权方法的并购中目标企业价值评估

本文利用实物期权方法研究并购中目标企业的价值评估模型，认为并购中目标企业的价值不仅包括目标企业自身的价值，还应包括由于并购的实物期权特征和协同效应产生的目标企业相对于并购企业的附加价值。目标企业自身的价值由传统的折现现金流法计算，并通过实物期权理论调整。并购附加价值分别由实物期权理论方法、由改进的折现现金流法和专家打分法计算和分配。     

发展微小企业的宏微观经济效应分析

从宏观层面看,微小企业发展特别突出的功能是向社会提供巨大的就业机会,而且,在经济增长、物价稳定和促进出口方面,微小企业做出了很大的贡献,同时也进一步地深化了财政货币政策效应。从微观层面看,微小企业发展最主要的边际贡献是有助于经济效率的提高,同时,在促进技术和制度创新、分配制度优化、消费结构合理化方面,也有很重要的作用。     

货币政策的产业效应分析——基于中国货币政策的实证研究

本文从基于要素密集度不同的两部门例子出发，说明了由于行业自身的异质性，每个行业对同一货币政策冲击的反应各异。接着利用E—G两步法、ADL模型和基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析1995年后中国六个行业对货币政策冲击的反应。结果显示第一、二产业、房地产业对利率政策冲击反应明显，第三产业、餐饮业和批发贸易零售业反应较小。在此基础上简单分析了造成行业反应不同的原因并给出相关的政策建议。     

Managerial judgment and forecast combination: An experimental study

This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision aid. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the decision maker exploit her relevant private information and mitigate the generally observed negative effects of human intervention. Further, the results suggest that emphasizing expected sales, even when the organization is primarily interested in go/no-go decisions, helps improve performance. Several suggestions for future research are presented.

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Progression and revenue effects of income tax reform

Usually, only initial revenue effects of personal income tax reforms are considered. However, a tax reform characterized by base broadening in exchange for rate reduction can reduce the income elasticity of tax revenue. In that case, the increase in revenue after income growth will be relatively smaller: the tax reform has a negative effect on revenue in the second period. Using the microtax model of the Central Planning Bureau we simulated the effects of the Dutch Oort reform 1990 on revenue elasticities and, consequently, on tax revenue. The income tax revenue elasticity declined by 17 percent which caused an additional revenue loss of 0.6 percent in 1990, rising to 3.8 percent in 1993.     

Selected Economic Analysis at the Antitrust Division: The Year in Review

Of the many activitiesof the Antitrust Division of theU.S. Department of Justice, we havesummarized some that raise interestingeconomic issues. We describe recentimprovements in the methodology to beused in ``coordinated effects' analysisof mergers. We also discuss four casesbrought by the DOJ that raise issues ofmarket definition, the influence ofcommon partial ownership of competitors,and the effects of fringe suppliers inconstraining collusion by large firms.     

Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. Not only are the values equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-averse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. In contrast, the appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75–160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.