中国经济发展的环境效应分析——基于广义脉冲响应函数的实证检验

文章在测度我国1986-2007年环境污染综合指数的基础上,采用基于VEC模型的广义脉冲响应函数分析方法,探索产业结构、环境政策、城市化水平与外商直接投资4个因素的变动对我国环境污染综合指数的影响机理及其在时序维度上的动态特征。结果表明:城市化水平的提升和外商直接投资额的增加加剧了我国的环境污染综合指数的上升,而第三产业比重的提升和环境政策的实施,则对降低我国环境污染综合指数具有积极意义,且这4种作用都具有持续性特征。     

Time-varying correlations in oil,gas and CO2 prices: an application using BEKK,CCC and DCC-MGARCH models

Previous literature has identified oil and gas prices as being the main drivers of CO₂ prices in a univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) econometric framework (Alberola et al., 2008; Oberndorfer, 2009). By contrast, we argue in this article that the interrelationships between energy and emissions markets shall be modelled in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) framework, so as to reflect the dynamics of the correlations between the oil, gas and CO₂ variables overtime. Using the Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK), Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation MGARCH (DCC-MGARCH) models on daily data from April 2005 to December 2008, we highlight significant own-volatility, cross-volatility spillovers, and own persistent volatility effects for nearly all markets, indicating the presence of strong Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and GARCH effects. Besides, we provide strong empirical evidence of time-varying correlations in the range of [?0.3;?0.3] between oil and gas, [?0.05;?0.05] between oil and CO₂, and [?0.2;?0.2] between gas and CO₂, that have not been considered by previous studies. These findings are of interest for traders and utilities in the energy sector, but also for a broader applied economics audience.     

The effects of oil price shocks on expenditure category CPI

In this study, we apply a two-block structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model proposed by Kilian and Park (2009) in order to investigate the dynamic effects of changes in oil price on the expenditure category consumer price index (CPI) in the United States and Japan. Our results confirm that each expenditure category price index responded very differently to the same structural shock, and that whether changes in oil price function as a positive stimulus or a negative shock for the individual expenditure category prices also depends on the kind of underlying shock that drives the changes in oil price. Finally, our results also reveal that the manner in which changes in oil price affect each expenditure category price differs between the United States and Japan and these detailed-level differences may lead to aggregate-level differences in the price response of both countries to changes in oil price.     

Common dynamics of nonenergy commodity prices and their relation to uncertainty

The purpose of this article is to improve the empirical evidence on commodity prices in various dimensions. First, we attempt to identify the extent of comovements in 44 monthly nonenergy commodity price series in order to ascertain whether the increase in comovement is a recent term phenomenon. Second, we attempt to determine the role of uncertainty in determining comovements among nonenergy prices in the short run. We diagnose the overall comovement using a dynamic factor model estimated by principal components. A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach is used to assess the relationship of fundamentals, financial and uncertainty variables with the comovement in commodity prices. We find a greater synchronization among raw materials since December 2003. Since that date, uncertainty has played an important role in determining short-run fluctuations in nonenergy raw material prices.     

Schumpeter,Schumacher and the Greening of Technology

We propose a semantic patent claim analysis that can examine patents for possible infringements and identify which needs to be manually perused. So far, numerous approaches have been devised to systemise this burden, but have not been useful in practice because of a lack of consideration of semi-structure of patent claim data and claim element-based procedure of adjudicating patent infringement. At the heart of our method is a hierarchical keyword vector for representing the dependency relationships among claim elements (as well as unstructured textual information) and a tree matching algorithm for comparing claim elements of patents. A case study of the patents about DNA chip technology shows our method has considerable advantages in terms of accuracy and significance. We believe the suggested method could be employed in various research areas and serve as a starting point for developing more general models.     

House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism*

We analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary‐policy transmission mechanism in the US, using a structural vector autoregressive model. If we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. Following a contractionary monetary‐policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is more gradual. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role than house prices. As a consequence, house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation.     

Detecting long‐run relationships in regional house prices in the UK

Recent developments in the analysis of cointegration in the presence of asymmetric adjustment are extended and applied to data on regional house prices in the UK. This extension is found to have a dramatic impact upon the results derived. In contrast to recent studies employing standard methods, allowance for the possibility of asymmetric behaviour results in the detection of a large number of long‐run relationships between house prices in different regions. A consistent pattern of asymmetric adjustment is observed, with reversion to equilibrium occurring more rapidly (slowly) when house prices in the South of England decrease (increase) relative to other regions. While the results derived support the existence of a ripple effect underlying the observed movements in regional house prices, the extent of cointegration uncovered casts doubt upon the recently proposed notion of weak segmentation in the UK housing market.     

陕西省财政支出结构的实证分析

财政支出对经济增长的影响不仅表现在总量上,而且表现在财政支出的结构关系上。文章着重分析了1978-2006年陕西省财政支出与经济增长的关系,发现经济增长促进了政府财政支出规模的扩张,并利用VAR模型和IRF检验了财政支出结构对经济增长的影响。     

城乡收入差距与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于中国1978-2007年数据的协整检验与脉冲响应分析

对中国1978—2007年数据的实证研究结果表明：城乡收入差距与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的双向因果关系：城乡收入差距只在短期内对经济增长产生影响;而经济增长并不会自动导致城乡收入差距的缩小,相反,经济增长在中长期内还会进一步加大城乡收入差距。     

从经济区域质心到多重质心结构的优化——经济地理中心的物理逻辑

经济物理学形成于十几年前,其利用物理学的概念、方法以及法则研究社会或者经济系统中的问题.本文通过把区域内的资本量、社会发展红利以及经济发展水平等经济概念赋予质量、重力加速度以及力等物理概念,生成抽象的泛函经济空间,建立定向和测度的参照系,采用数理演绎和矢量积分,寻找类似物理实体质量中心的经济质心,即经济区域在经济空间上的各分量中心.在求出经济区域各分量中心情况下,通过对各分量中心进行方向余弦平方加权的算法回答了经济区域内的总经济中心在哪里的问题.设定区域上任两点到质心之间通过分量经济水平加权后的平均值差距的平方之和最小,解决了公平原则下多重经济质心结构如何优化的问题.