Flows into tourist areas: an econometric approach

The globalisation of the tourism industry has led to a horizontal and vertical penetration of firms, leading to strong competition in all tourist centres. In light of these circumstances there is a need to develop strategies that encourage entrepreneurial actions and help firms to design the most competitive tourism offer possible. For the development of these strategies, the current work attempts to identify the degree of interrelation existing between the different tourist markets. Specifically, the study is based on an analysis of the evolution in the relations between the main tourist‐receiving centres in Spain. It identifies the short‐ and long‐term dynamic relations existing between them, and determines their degree of interdependence and any potential leadership relations between them. The methodology used is the one underlying Cointegration theory and vector autoregressive theory, together with forecast error variance decomposition and the impulse‐response function. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new unique impulse response function in linear vector autoregressive models

This article proposes a new unique impulse response function (IRF) measure, or MIRF, based on the popular vector autoregressive model to study interdependency of multivariate time series. Same as the orthogonal IRF, the estimator of MIRF has an analytical form with well-established asymptotics, and is invariant to ordering of series. Compared to alternative unique IRF measures, MIRF does not depend on extreme identifications, and the associated forecast error variance measure is explainable. An illustrative empirical example is also provided.     

云南省能源消费与经济增长动态关系——基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究

基于云南1980—2019年时间序列数据,在能源、资本和劳动三要素C-D生产函数框架下,利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等定量分析工具,对能源消费与经济增长的短期和长期关系进行实证检验。结果表明:二者存在相互促进的长期均衡关系,而短期不存在因果关系,说明云南经济结构优化向好,能源依赖度低;此外存在纠偏机制,误差修正项对能源消费的调整速度显著快于对实际GDP的调整速度,说明云南能源产业具有良好的自我调节功能。最后指出云南能源产业今后的发展重点是加快建立系统整合的能源-经济决策架构,同时政府应着力营造稳定的宏观经济环境。