发电行业：转型发展为哪般？

自2002年我国实施电力体制改革以来，逐步形成的“四变一不变”的行业环境，即激烈竞争的电力体制、总体平衡局部过剩的电力市场、价格上涨的燃料市场、低碳发展的产业导向、电价机制仍然承袭政府定价模式，决定了发电行业的经营状况日趋严峻。以五大发电集团为代表的发电行业，在集团发展定位、电源结构调整、企业发展布局、资本运作、经营发展理念等方面的转型，为发电企业适应市场、建设一流综合能源集团做出有益实践。     

ON SURRENDER AND DEFAULT RISKS

This paper examines certain types of saving institutions or insurance companies that are subject to surrender and default risks, in a stochastic interest rate context. In the setting under study, investors are endowed with an option to surrender. The goal of the paper is to study how this option impacts the default risk of the issuing company and the value of the contracts it issues. Surrender risk has been extensively studied in arbitrated markets, using trees or least‐squares Monte Carlo methods for valuations, although practitioners often rely on econometric methods. We deal with surrender risk in a third way, assuming policyholders have sets of information and preferences that differ from those of financial market agents, but without relying on econometric methods. In particular, policyholders are supposed to be only partially rational (at least in the financial sense). This is done by modeling surrender risk through a Cox process correlated to the assets and interest rate dynamics. The paper provides formulas for the dynamics of the assets of the issuing firm (these dynamics drive the default time of the company), and for the valuation of liabilities and equity. A numerical illustration is provided.     

Oman's monetary policy transmission process under the fixed peg: some empirical puzzles

This paper highlights that an open economy, like Oman, could often enjoy partial monetary policy independence despite operating with a fixed peg, which may appear as a clear violation of the ‘macroeconomic trilemma'. While explaining the country-specific factors that create the scope for partial monetary policy independence, the paper underscores that for meaningful use of this partial monetary policy independence to attain domestic goals of inflation and output, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy must work effectively. Empirical analyses presented in this paper for Oman, however, suggest the presence of not only the ‘interest rate puzzle’ but also the ‘IS puzzle’ and the ‘Phillips curve puzzle’, which together signal the presence of significant transmission weaknesses. The paper, thus, concludes that costs stemming from loss of any monetary policy independence because of the fixed peg may not be very significant for Oman, and hence, any alternative exchange rate regime cannot be viewed as appropriate just on the grounds that an alternative regime could deliver greater monetary policy independence.     

绿色建筑利益相关者的利益诉求和行为分析

文章通过研究绿色建筑利益相关者之间的博弈关系和行为分析,有利于识别各方的不同利益诉求,从中找到平衡点,为有效地推进绿色建筑提供了理论依据,促进我国绿色经济可持续发展。     

制造企业群价值网组织运作机制研究

针对制造企业群价值网组织的特点,进行了价值定位的策划,并通过企业与顾客、与供应商以及与竞争对手合作的运作模式等价值活动详细分析了制造企业群价值网的运作机制,为制造企业群如何构造一个有效的价值网,并实现其价值定位和价值活动提供了理论指导和依据。     

The Effect of Short Selling on Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements*

This paper examines the effect of the inherent demand implied by short interest by studying how stock price reactions to earnings announcements depend on the level of short interest. We find that, for extreme good and bad news events, the inherent demand increases stock prices around the earnings announcement date, with the effect being stronger for good news relative to bad news. Specifically, the initial market reaction to an extreme positive earnings surprise is larger for firms with high levels of short interest. On the other hand, for an extreme negative earnings surprise event, the initial market reaction is less negative for heavily shorted firms. Furthermore, we find that the post‐earnings‐announcement drift is smaller (larger) in magnitude for extreme positive (negative) earnings surprises for the heavily shorted firms.     

Equality of interest rates revisited: the multi‐country evidence

One influential aspect of international integration of financial markets is the possibility of reducing divergences between domestic interest rates and foreign interest rates or increasing the degree to which yields in different financial markets move together over time. In this study, we investigate the convergence of the real interest rates using the Kalman filter. Applying the modified Hall et al. () approach, we model the risk premium and convergence of real interest rates using the time‐varying parameter estimation techniques. We present evidence of risk premium and convergence for two blocks of countries—The Asian‐Pacific countries including the US, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and the US‐European group including France, the UK, Germany and the US.     

The Determinants of Net Interest Margins of Commercial Banks in Mainland China

This paper studies empirically the determinants of Chinese commercial banks' net interest margins from 1996 to 2003. It applies an extension to the Ho and Saunders (1981) model to identify the elements affecting net interest margins. The results indicate that the determinants of net interest margins in the Chinese market include market competition structure, average operating costs, degree of risk aversion, transaction size, implicit interest payments, opportunity cost of reserve, and management efficiency.     

Evolution of group performance over time: A repeated measures study of GDSS effects

Many studies in the group decision support system (GDSS) literature have reported on the behavior and performance of ad hoc groups meeting for the first, and, in fact, the only time. Such one‐time studies of groups may not represent their longer term behavior and performance accurately. Adaptive Structuration Theory (AST) conceives of technology use as a social practice that emerges over time. AST suggests that meeting outcomes reflect the extent to which structures offered by the technology (such as GDSS tool sequences, meeting agenda, etc.) are faithfully appropriated by the group. Such faithful appropriation, however, takes time. This article explicitly recognizes the relevance of this appropriation process and reports on a lab study that examined the impact of computer support on group performance over time. In general, results showed that the performance of computer‐supported groups improved over time, whereas the performance of non‐computer‐supported groups stayed the same or declined. The number of alternatives generated by computer‐supported groups increased considerably as they became more proficient in incorporating the technology into group processes. However, the quality of decisions made by computer‐supported groups began to increase slightly, only during the last session. Both these findings suggest that AST is, in fact, a viable theory for studying group behavior and performance over time. Results from this study also point out the need for conducting more longitudinal studies of group processes in the future.     

Macroeconomic factors and yield curve for the emerging Indian economy

This article investigates the dynamic linkages between the estimated parameters of a zero coupon yield curve and macroeconomic variables like inflation, gross domestic product growth in the presence of a monetary policy indicator in India for the period July 1997 to February 2004. The study finds that there exists strong causality from financial factors, defined by three parameters of the yield curves (‘Level’, ‘Slope’, ‘Curvature’) to macroeconomic factors; growth, inflation and monetary policy indicators (changes in the call money rate). However, the causality in the opposite direction is found to be weaker. It is found that theyield and macro factors do not cause each other before the launch of a liquidity adjustment facility, so the evidence of causality from financial to macroeconomic factors can be attributed to the introduction of a liquidity adjustment facility in June 2000. The causality from yield factors to macro factors is primarily driven by the fact that the ‘changes in level’ of yield curve brings an impact on inflation through the changes in monetary policy. This finding suggests that monetary policy plays a key role in driving the causality. This also implies that the indirect instrument of monetary policy mechanism is becoming increasingly important to influence the aggregate demand in the economy.