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111.
The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well. 相似文献
112.
We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term depends on the netted exposure, i.e., the difference between the on‐default exposure and the predefault collateral account. We then specialize our analysis to credit default swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolios, and construct a numerical scheme to evaluate the adjustment under a doubly stochastic default framework. In particular, we show that for CDS contracts a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved, even under continuous collateralization, if the reference entity’s and counterparty’s default times are dependent. The impact of rehypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and default correlation‐induced contagion is illustrated with numerical examples. 相似文献
113.
114.
Forecasts of values at risk (VaRs) are made for volatility indices such as the VIX for the US S&P 500 index, the VKOSPI for the KOSPI (Korea Stock Price Index) and the OVX (oil volatility index) for crude oil funds, which is the first in the literature. In the forecasts, dominant features of the volatility indices are addressed: long memory, conditional heteroscedasticity, asymmetry and fat-tails. An out-of-sample comparison of the VaR forecasts is made in terms of violation probabilities, showing better performance of the proposed method than several competing methods which consider the features differently from ours. The proposed method is composed of heterogeneous autoregressive model for the mean, GARCH model for the volatility and skew-t distribution for the error. 相似文献
115.
In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to accommodate symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. We also explain why behavioral finance theory could be used to explain many of the asset pricing anomalies, but traditional asset pricing models cannot achieve this aim. 相似文献
116.
Vincenzo Quadrini 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2014,116(1):190-217
In this paper, I study a model in which shocks to asset prices affect the real sector of the economy through a credit channel. As financial markets become internationally integrated, the economy becomes less vulnerable to domestic asset‐price shocks, but more vulnerable to foreign asset‐price shocks. To the extent that monetary policy stabilization is feasible and desirable, the globalization of financial markets shifts the focus of monetary policy from domestic asset prices to worldwide asset prices. 相似文献
117.
This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate volatility during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. The findings of the paper also suggest that financial markets might have been less reactive to the public debate by policy makers than previously feared. Still, there are instances where exchange rate volatility increased in response to news, such as on days when several politicians from AAA-rated countries went public with negative statements, suggesting that communication by policy makers at times of crisis should be cautious about triggering undesirable financial market reactions. 相似文献
118.
Rapid changes in global food prices in recent years are widely viewed as a serious threat to global development. While various sources of price instability in agriculture have been identified, little attention appears to have been given to the importance of changes in trade policies that insulate domestic prices from world markets as a source of volatility in world prices. A contribution of this paper is to show that these interventions are dynamically more complex than simple proportional insulation. Insulation against an initial price increase in world prices increases the magnitude of that increase, while subsequent adjustments to the level of protection change the fundamental nature of price volatility. We find such policies are widespread and increase the volatility of world prices while not reducing the volatility of domestic prices because of the collective action problem involved in this form of policy intervention. 相似文献
119.
This paper presents a joint analysis of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads and the implied volatility surface for five European countries from 2007 to 2012, a sample period covering both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. We analyze to which extent effective cross-hedges can be performed between the credit and equity derivatives markets during these two crises. We find that during a global crisis a breakdown of the relationship between credit risk and equity volatility may occur, jeopardizing any cross-hedging strategy, which happened during the GFC. This stands in sharp contrast to the more localized European debt crisis, during which this fundamental relationship was preserved despite turbulent market conditions for both the CDS and volatility markets. 相似文献
120.
Under the general affine jump-diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Econometrica, 2000, 68, 1343–1376], this paper proposes an alternative pricing methodology for European-style forward start options that does not require any parallel optimization routine to ensure square integrability. Therefore, the proposed methodology is shown to possess a better accuracy–efficiency trade-off than the usual and more general approach initiated by Hong [Forward Smile and Derivative Pricing. Working paper, UBS, 2004] that is based on the knowledge of the forward characteristic function. Explicit pricing solutions are also offered under the nested jump-diffusion setting proposed by Bakshi et al. [J. Finance, 1997, 52, 2003–2049], which accommodates stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates, and different integration schemes are numerically tested. 相似文献