沙尘暴对人体健康的影响及防治措施

沙尘暴是我国北方主要的灾害性天气。沙尘天气可造成烟尘与粉尘携带细菌侵入人体呼吸道,沉积在人体的肺部,引发呼吸道疾病并被肺泡吸收进入血液循环,导致其他器官疾病,危害人的身体健康。本文从沙尘暴天气的形成及对人体健康影响入手,提出了指导性的防治措施。     

略论发展我国天气衍生产品市场

作为金融工程创新的结晶,天气衍生产品在防范由非灾难性天气因素产生的风险方面显示了巨大的活力和创造性。在我国发展天气风险市场,将有利于保障我国重要行业的发展,推动金融市场和资本市场的繁荣,提高我国在国际市场的竞争力。     

Assessment of non-recurrent congestion caused by precipitation using archived weather and traffic flow data

Since precipitation has a negative impact on traffic congestion, there have been various studies for modeling the relationship between precipitation and its impact on traffic flow. However, due to limitations on existing data, none of the previous studies have accounted for the estimation of the total delay caused by precipitation. The objective of this study is to estimate the non-recurrent traffic congestion on freeways caused by precipitation. To accomplish this objective, archived weather and traffic data for the year 2008 from the Korean Freeway Systems was collected and analyzed. As a result, non-recurrent traffic congestion was about 1.6 million vehicle-hours due to rainfall and 186,000 vehicle-hours due to snowfall in 2008. In addition, simple analyses were performed to describe the average non-recurrent traffic congestion per unit distance as a function of precipitation and a function of the time period of precipitation. Although precipitation events might not be handled by human efforts, these results will assist in making strategic plans such as active speed management and contingency planning for mitigating traffic congestion due to precipitation.     

基于国产DSP“魂芯一号”的天气雷达信号处理器设计

中国电子科技集团公司第三十八研究所研发了首款国产高端数字信号处理芯片“魂芯一号”(BWDSP100),为了打破国外高端芯片的垄断,该国产信号处理器在天气雷达中的应用具有重要意义。在自主开发的软件环境中,通过傅里叶变换法、脉冲对法和批处理方法等3种处理模式实现了天气雷达回波参数估计的处理过程,硬件上利用了“魂芯一号”,它具有4个核并行处理,能高效实时完成3种主要处理模式。论证结果表明,“魂芯一号”在精度和速度上均优于国外高端信号处理器。国产信号处理器应用于天气雷达上将突出其优越的实用价值。     

基于ARMA模型的气温衍生品定价研究：以武汉市为例

随着气候异常变化频率的增加以及极端天气事件的频繁发生,天气风险对农业的影响尤其严重,天气风险管理成为了关注的热点.天气衍生品作为国外进行天气风险管理和转移的金融创新工具,为应对天气风险提供了重要的途径,定价问题则是天气衍生品研究中的核心问题.本文使用武汉市1990.1.1-2009.12.31的每日气温数据,采用了基于ARMA的时间序列模型分析了武汉市气温动态变化的过程,对模型进行了估计、检验了模型的预测准确度,结果表明：ARMA模型具有较好的拟合优度,能以此为基础对气温期权等天气衍生产品进行合理定价.基于以上分析,本文提出应提供有利的技术环境、政策环境和制度环境以推进农业天气衍生品开发与市场发展的政策建议.     

试析人类耗用能源对气候变暖的贡献

在对地球气候变暖原因的探讨中，人们较注意“温室气体”的贡献，但与“温室气体”排放几乎同时进行的巨额热量的释放也是不应 忽视的；由205个国家和地区在1年内消耗的商品能源量数据。计算出每年释放的热量相当于地球接受30分钟的太阳辐射量，在绝热情况下可使全球陆地2m厚的表层、全球海洋2m深的水体和全球大气温度提高0.06℃；对上述结果进行了讨论。     

Agricultural disaster payments in the southeastern US: do weather and climate variability matter?

Governments around the world are forced to react to disasters caused by weather. The agricultural sector is particularly susceptible to weather extremes and adverse climate conditions. In the US, agricultural disaster payments account for a significant part of total agricultural subsidies. The payments, and their distribution, are more important in the areas most affected by disastrous weather events, usually coinciding with areas of pronounced impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this article, the impact of weather and climate, as well as some economic variables, on disaster payments is analysed using county level data from four states in the southeastern United States. The results suggest that weather and climate variables explain most of the crop disaster payments at the county level while socioeconomic variables do not, suggesting that advancements in weather and climate forecasts could be helpful in planning for disaster compensation.     

Tourist Perceptions of Climate Change: A Study of International Tourists in Zanzibar

A study was conducted in Zanzibar, Tanzania, in order to understand tourist perceptions of climate change, the importance of climate for travel decisions, and the likely consequences of ongoing climate change for travel decisions. The results show that climatic characteristics of destinations are important, though not the only factor shaping travel decisions. Under a scenario of climate change, certain climate variables, such as more rain, storms, and higher humidity are also likely to negatively influence travel decisions, rather than higher temperatures alone, which are not necessarily perceived as negative. Regarding the contribution of travel to climate change, the study reveals that leisure tourists in Zanzibar are largely unaware of their impact on the natural environment, while the analysis of stated travel behaviour shows that they frequently travel by air. Overall, the results indicate that travel flows might change in more complex ways than currently assumed, and that a small share of high-intensity air travellers is responsible for a considerable environmental impact in terms of climate change.     

基于支持向量回归的现代气象雷达寿命预测

为了准确地预测气象雷达使用寿命, 提高气象雷达运行可靠性、安全性和可维护性, 提出了一种新的基于多元回归的气象雷达使用寿命预测框架。在该框架内,采用了支持向量 回归(SVR)方法来求解气象雷达使用寿命的多元回归问题;提出了基于SVR的气象雷达特征参 数选择FSSSVR（Feature Subset Selection SVR）算法去掉冗余和无效的特征参数。实验结 果表明,基于SVR方法的预测算法能够准确地预测气象雷达的使用寿命,能够为雷达全寿命 周期管理提供参考依据。     

Well-being effects of extreme weather events in the United States

The increase in weather and climate disasters in recent years has prompted an interest in analyzing their consequences and the mitigation and adaptation measures that can help minimize their potentially large impacts on individuals’ welfare. We match thirty-one billion-dollar disasters with individual survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate the effect of extreme weather events on the subjective well-being of U.S. residents. Our results indicate that natural disasters have a negative and robust impact on subjective well-being in the affected communities, and that, on average, this impact peaks 6 months after the event, and then decays over time. We then investigate the attenuating impact of health care access, flood insurance, and governmental assistance programs and find a partial compensating role for risk-transfer and relief measures. We also find that stronger emotional and social support mitigates the negative impact of natural disasters.