Weather derivatives structuring and pricing: a sustainable agricultural approach in Africa

The objective of this article is to calculate the price of weather derivatives for different African countries with payout depending on temperature. A new approach for computing degree day contracts is shown and gives another scale to the numerical relevance and practical implementation of the findings. With historical data for each country, a stochastic process based on continuous time with mean reversion representing the evolution of the temperature is determined. Focusing on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the price of each contract and the potential implications to solve several aspects of the threatened African economy are presented.     

Cooling China： The Weather Dependence of Air Conditioner Adoption

One of the major adaptation mechanisms to climate change is increased demand for cooling via the air conditioning of indoor environments. China＇s demand for air conditioners has displayed explosive growth since 1995. This paper provides estimates of the income and short run weather sensitivity of air conditioner adoption across urban areas for 29 Chinese provincial entities. We show that the adoption decision displays significant income and weather sensitivity in the short run, with adoption being higher the year following a hot summer.     

0907号热带风暴“天鹅”预报服务经验分析

受热带风暴＂天鹅＂的影响,广西北海市出现了连续几天的降雨和海面强风。文章详述了北海市气象局应对热带风暴＂天鹅＂的具体预报及服务工作,为相关气象预报工作提供经验借鉴。     

It’s so hot: predicting climate change effects on urban tourists’ time–space experience

Abstract

Progressive changes in mean annual temperatures are arguably the strongest evidence of ongoing climate change. In destinations with a Mediterranean climate, in contrast to the colder months, during summer, rising air temperatures are believed to inhibit tourist movements and activities, and consequently affect tourists’ evaluation of and satisfaction with their experiences. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has investigated the potential impact of climate change on tourists’ time–space activity using actual behavioural tracking-based information. Data collected via GPS technology and a post-visit survey of tourists (n = 404) visiting Lisbon during the summer were analysed via structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). The results report empirical evidence of the present impact of (summer) weather on urban tourists’ time–space activity and on their intra-destination experience evaluation. Specifically, maximum air temperature is found to have a significant negative effect on overall satisfaction, while the meteorological conditions of the entire day reveal a significant impact on tourists’ activities and movements. The results are particularly useful for the sustainable adaptive management of urban attractions and destinations that are especially vulnerable to climate change, as well as in managing its adverse impact on tourists’ experiences.     

我国天气保险业应对气象灾害的长远发展策略研究

依据我国近年来气象灾害状况的数据统计显示,长期的异常气候事件将更频繁发生且损失程度增加,这将直接考验保险业的风险承担及应变能力。为应对气候变迁所致影响,保险业可投入资源研究气候变迁及碳排放权、后期清洁技术、可再生能源和其它温室气体缓解的技术相关保险项目,以协助个人及企业进行气候风险管理。     

吉安市防灾减灾预警服务主叫系统简述

吉安市是一个气象及气象衍生灾害多发区,各种灾害严重威胁广大人民群众的生命财产安全并制约社会经济和农村经济的发展,影响了其可持续发展。气象预警信息传播由于手段、技术、资源等原因的影响,传播的时效性、传播率有一定的限制。为此,吉安市气象局建立了吉安市防灾减灾预警主叫服务系统,该系统成为了对外发布气象预警信息的一个主要快速绿色通道,能保证及时、有效地把气象预警信息进行传播。     

基于MCS-51的小型电子气象站设计

本文提出一种基于MCS-51系列单片机的小型电子气象站设计,由单片机通过相关传感器采集数据,再由串口发送到PC机,在PC机上完成相关信息的显示与记录。在满足监测要求的同时,有效地降低用户的使用成本。     

新疆人影作业点标准化建设中监控系统的设计

本文根据新疆人影作业点标准化建设的需求,参照《安全防范工程技术规范》等相关国标及部标,相关规定等,提出一套采用计算机多媒体技术、音视频技术、现代通信技术、自动控制技术等,形成的多功能、综合性的智能化监控系统方案。     

农户气象感知对购买天气指数保险意愿的影响——以山西岢岚和江苏南通430食用豆户为例

目的 综合已有研究发现,学者忽略了农户的气象认知对其天气指数保险购买意愿的影响。方法 文章基于山西省岢岚和江苏省南通市430食用豆种植户的实地问卷调查数据,运用Probit模型分析食用豆种植户对气象（如平均气温、平均降雨、干旱、霜冻等的发生次数及严重程度）的感知对其购买天气指数保险意愿的影响。结果 （1）食用豆种植户的气象感知显著地影响其购买天气指数保险的意愿。此外,食用豆种植户的村干部经历和兼业户身份对其购买天气指数保险产生正向且显著的影响;（2）而家庭人口数以及是否有专门的食用豆贮藏场所等对食用豆种植户购买天气指数保险产生负向且显著的影响。结论 因此,在食用豆种植户中推广天气指数保险应关注到其气候的感知,可以通过多种方式（例如公益宣传片、教育培训等,线上线下、网络电视手机、书籍宣传册等）宣传气候变化对食用豆种植的危害,强化食用豆种植户的风险管理意识,进而提高其购买天气指数保险的意愿。     

China,More than Self-Sufficient

At the moment,the whole world faces the most severe inflation in food prices in history,as grain and soybean prices climb to all-time highs.Although some observers blame the weather for the decrease in crop yields and that the growing demand for cereals used for bio-fuel production has conspired toward continuous price rises on world grain ma ket;others regard it simply as a matter of demand outpacing supply.In seven of the last eight years,world grain production has fallen behind rates of consumption.