The forecasting ability of solar and space weather data on NASDAQ’s finance sector price index volatility

We examine the impact of solar and space weather events on the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) price index volatility, spanning the period 1998-2018. Comparing MAPE and RMSFE forecasting criteria, for the ARIMA-GARCH model, augmented with exogenous variables, we find that solar and space weather variables contribute statistically significant information with regard to volatility forecasting.     

Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market

Despite the significant progress made in solar forecasting over the last decade, most of the proposed models cannot be readily used by independent system operators (ISOs). This article proposes an operational solar forecasting algorithm that is closely aligned with the real-time market (RTM) forecasting requirements of the California ISO (CAISO). The algorithm first uses the North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast system to generate hourly forecasts for a 5-h period that are issued 12 h before the actual operating hour, satisfying the lead-time requirement. Subsequently, the world’s fastest similarity search algorithm is adopted to downscale the hourly forecasts generated by NAM to a 15-min resolution, satisfying the forecast-resolution requirement. The 5-h-ahead forecasts are repeated every hour, following the actual rolling update rate of CAISO. Both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated using the proposed algorithm are empirically evaluated over a period of 2 years at 7 locations in 5 climate zones.     

The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors

Every day, people make economic decisions based on the weather, affecting sales of companies in a wide range of economic sectors. In many cases, the impact of weather on sales is not constant from one season to the next. Yet, the existing research to estimate the influence of temperature on annual sales has not analysed the relationship per season, resulting in potential washout effects and underestimated weather impacts. Drawing upon French economic sectors for empirical evidence, we break down the analysis of the relationship between weather and monthly sales by season. Our methodology provides the cumulative annual contribution of weather to sales and allows deriving the maximum potential annual impact of adverse weather. With our results, analysts and risk managers can better understand the exposure to abnormal weather and consider the potential benefits of mitigating weather risk using the weather parameters we identify to structure bespoke index-based financial instruments.     

恶劣气候对交通安全的影响及对策研究

恶劣气候对道路交通安全畅通有着巨大影响,与交通事故的发生之间也存在着许多内在的联系。研究恶劣气候与交通安全之间的内在联系,采取有针对性的预防措施,从而消除恶劣气候对交通安全的消极影响,对于预防和减少交通事故有着十分重要的意义。     

Weather risk management at the Olympic Winter Games

The globally celebrated Olympic Winter Games (OWG) are highly dependent on suitable snow and ice conditions to support elite-level competitions. To determine the range of weather impacts on the Games, this study examines the official Olympic post-Games reports from 1924 to 2010. Impacts include preparations for the Games, holding outdoor opening–closing ceremonies, outdoor sporting competitions, spectator comfort, transportation, and television broadcasts. The study also examines the range of historical adaptations that have developed to manage weather risks at the OWG. Three adaptation eras are identified, spanning the history of the games: emergent adaptation, technological transition, and advanced adaptation. Analysis reveals that while weather-induced impacts have always been a part of the Games, these impacts would be far greater if not for technical climatic adaptations. With the average daytime temperature of host locations steadily increasing from 0.4°C at the Games held in the 1920–1950s to 7.8°C at the Games held in the twenty-first century, it would be difficult to imagine recent host cities/regions successfully delivering the diverse Games programme exclusively on natural ice and snow. The connection between the evolving needs for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organisers and the growth of the Olympics in size and scope is also discussed.     

Landraces as an adaptation strategy to climate change for smallholders in Santa Catarina,Southern Brazil

Adapting to climate change has become a pressing and urgent issue given the alarming rapidity with which climate changes is taking place. Agriculture is strongly conditioned by climatic factors, but subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable because smallholders do not have adequate financial resources to adapt to climate change. Agrobiodiversity provides one option for smallholders to adapt to climate change. Landraces developed in the western region of Santa Catarina State, Brazil, are part of a deliberate strategy by smallholders to achieve a state of food sovereignty and independence from commercial sources of hybrid seed. The ability of smallholders to collectively conserve climate-adapted landraces indicates the depth of local knowledge and capability within local communities that can be drawn on to meet the future challenges of climate change.     

International tourism demand to Finnish Lapland in the early winter season

This paper investigates the determinants of international overnight stays to Finnish Lapland in the early winter season. The data are based on major winter destinations for the period 1996–2014 and are distinguished by nine major visitor countries. During the sample period, international overnight stays in December increased rapidly with a growth rate of nine per cent per year on average. Dynamic panel data models show that the effect of natural snow conditions on overnight stays varies across countries of origin. The amount of snow in December has a significant impact on overnight stays of visitors coming from neighbouring countries (Russia and Sweden). In contrast, snow conditions do not play a role for visitors from distant countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Spain and Switzerland). Economic factors (real income and real exchange rates) play a larger role for these countries.     

Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming

I use one nationally representative sample from CBS News/New York Times Poll on Environment (2007), supplemented with monthly temperature and precipitation data from the United States Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center, to examine how different weather measures and individuals’ socio-demographic background, political predisposition, and beliefs about global warming affect the perception of local weather. Beliefs about global warming are found to play a dominant role in determining the perception of local weather. Specifically, people who view that global warming is causing an immediate impact, is serious, and needs to be a priority are much more likely to perceive a strange pattern of weather in the recent past. This finding conforms to motivated reasoning which refers to the tendency to interpret evidence to confirm the preexisting beliefs and predisposition. Among all the weather measures, the total number of extreme weather events in the past three years appears to be the only significant indicator of perceived weather. Specifically, individuals who have experienced more extreme weather events in their home counties are more likely than those elsewhere to perceive the weather is stranger than usual. I further examine how actual weather and perceived weather together affect perceptions of global warming. The results illustrate that the perception of local weather has stronger explanatory power than actual weather. People who perceive the strange weather patterns are much more likely than others to see the immediate impacts and priority of global warming. Future studies are needed to investigate the dynamic relationship between perceptions of global warming and perceptions of weather and climate. In addition, more studies are needed to further examine how the public forms their opinions toward various specific types of the local weather and climate.     

论贵港至梧州北流河大桥的设计最高、最低水位

文章通过对桥区自然条件、气象条件、水位流量的分析,结合长洲水利枢纽的运行调度方式,探讨拟建桥区设计最高通航水位和最低通航水位。