气候因子对花生-脐橙两大经济圈的负面影响

花生是中国科学院红壤生态实验站所在地域附近农业的特产和经济收入的命脉;中国科学院三峡工程秭归生态实验站地域的脐橙,是库区农业的特产和经济收入的命脉,也是库区高山峡谷绿化造林防治水土流失的好办法。气候因子对花生—脐橙两大经济作物的负面影响极大;根据两大经济圈的现实气象资料和实地观察,探索了生态网络气象数据的处理。     

基于SPAMS研究石家庄市春节期间重污染过程

2018年2月15日—2月21日春节假期,石家庄市出现了2月份以来污染最重、持续时间最长的一次空气污染过程。为探究重污染天气成因,采用位于石家庄市大气自动监测站的单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪(SPAMS),对春节期间的细颗粒物化学组成进行了分析,结合空气质量状况及气象条件等因素,对重污染天气的成因进行了推定。结果表明,在此次污染过程期间,地面持续处于低压幅合,边界层低,逆温现象严重,致使18日和19日的污染物浓度累积升高;同时根据SPAMS污染特征分析可知,春节期间发生的重污染过程中,燃煤和工业工艺源的累积,加剧了二次转化,且随着PM2.5浓度的攀升,细颗粒物中重金属和矿尘颗粒占比有一定的增加,二次无机源和烟花源的贡献变化较为突出。研究石家庄市春节期间大气污染物的组成及其成因,可为科学有效地制定大气环境调控策略提供技术参考。     

Cycling in a changed climate

The use of bicycle is substantially affected by the weather patterns, which is expected to change in the future as a result of climate change. It is therefore important to understand the resulting potential changes in bicycle flows in order to accommodate adaptation planning for cycling. We propose a framework to model the changes in bicycle flow in London by developing a negative binomial count-data model and by incorporating future projected weather data from downscaled global climate models, a first such approach in this area. High temporal resolution (hourly) of our model allows us to decipher changes not only on an annual basis, but also on a seasonal and daily basis. We find that there will be a modest 0.5% increase in the average annual hourly bicycle flows in London’s network due to a changed climate. The increase is primarily driven by a higher temperature due to a changed climate, although the increase is tempered due to a higher rainfall. The annual average masks the differences of impacts between seasons though – bicycle flows are expected to increase during the summer and winter months (by 1.6%), decrease during the spring (by 2%) and remain nearly unchanged during the autumn. Leisure cycling will be more affected by a changed climate, with an increase of around 7% during the weekend and holiday cycle flows in the summer months.     

How to improve people's interpretation of probabilities of precipitation

Most research into uncertainty focuses on how people estimate probability magnitude. By contrast, this paper focuses on how people interpret the concept of probability and why they often misinterpret it. In a weather forecast context, we hypothesised that the absence of an explicit reference class and the polysemy of the percentage format are causing incorrect probability interpretations, and test two interventions to help people make better probability interpretation. In two studies (N = 1337), we demonstrate that most people from the UK and the US do not interpret probabilities of precipitation correctly. The explicit mention of the reference class helped people to interpret probabilities of precipitation better when the target area was explicit; but this was not the case when it was not specified. Furthermore, the polysemy of the percentage format is not likely to cause these misinterpretations, since a non-polysemous format (e.g. verbal probability) did not facilitate a correct probability interpretation in our studies. A Bayes factor analysis supported both of these conclusions. We discuss theoretical and applied implications of our findings.     

The changing geography of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in a warmer world

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) and the Paralympic Winter Games (PWG) are showcases for winter sports. With their high dependence on weather conditions, accelerating climate change poses a challenge to these mega-events. Two indicators are used to assess the climate reliability of locations to host the Games (OWG in February, PWG in March) in the future under a low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario. Climate change will alter the geography of the Games over the twenty-first century. In a low-emission scenario, only 13 of 21 locations remain climate reliable for the OWG in the 2050s and 12 in the 2080s, whereas only 10 are reliable for the PWG (both in the 2050s and 2080s). The impact of a business-as-usual high-emission scenario is far greater, reducing the number of locations reliable for the OWG to 10 in the 2050s and 8 in the 2080s, with even fewer reliable for PWG (8 in the 2050s and only 4 in the 2080s). Adaptive responses are considered, including strengthening the climatological assessment requirements in forthcoming bid processes, the unification of the OWG and PWG (in the month of February), and considering dual host countries/regions.     

Extreme Weather Events and the Critical Importance of Anticipatory Adaptation and Organizational Resilience in Responding to Impacts

Growing scientific evidence suggests that more frequent and severe weather extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes, flooding and droughts will have an increasing impact on organizations, industries and entire economies. These findings call for the development of theoretical and practical frameworks to strengthen the capacity of organizations to respond to such impacts. Yet despite the need to understand what is required to build anticipatory adaptation and organizational resilience to expected impacts, the organizational theory literature offers only limited insights. This paper proposes a comprehensive conceptual framework of organizational adaptation and resilience to extreme weather events for addressing the effects of ecological discontinuities in organizational research and strategic decision‐making. Implications and suggestions for future research are offered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

自动站报表制作和审核分析

文章针对观测记录、报表制作、报表审核等方面的问题提出几点看法。     

Estimating sensitivities of temperature-based weather derivatives

Pricing of temperature-based weather derivatives has been studied in the literature; however, there is no analysis of the estimation of the sensitivities of weather derivatives in a stochastic model of temperatures. We use pathwise derivative and kernel methods to derive Monte Carlo estimators for the sensitivity (Greeks) of temperature-based weather derivatives. These sensitivities can be used by investors for choosing the most suitable weather contracts for partial hedging or speculation. Temperature data from New York, Atlanta and Chicago are used in the discussion of numerical results.