Thoughts on whether government should steer a tropical cyclone if it could

Previous work suggests if it were possible to lower sea-surface temperature using wind-wave pumps, it would sometime make sense to try to reduce the wind speed of a tropical cyclone (TC) that is likely to make landfall. While currently there is no plausible strategy to steer a TC, suppose that TC landfall location could be altered and subsequent damages perhaps reduced. Here, we ask whether and when such a modification might be desirable. As a thought experiment, we consider a hypothetical TC that will make landfall on the east coast of Florida. Using results from previous detailed damage modeling, we examine three simplified scenarios of TC modification resulting in altered landfall location. Even in these simplified scenarios, and assuming a zero cost for modification, we find that unless it becomes possible to steer a hurricane to the open ocean with something approaching certainty, it is likely that the complexities of the decision will always make it undesirable to undertake a modification intended to steer TCs.     

Portfolio Effects and Valuation of Weather Derivatives

In a mean‐variance framework, the indifference pricing approach is adopted to value weather derivatives, taking account of portfolio effects. Our analysis shows how the magnitude of portfolio effects is related to the correlation between weather indexes and other risky assets, the correlation between weather indexes, and the payoff structures of the existing weather derivatives in an investor's asset portfolio. We also conduct some preliminary empirical analysis. This study contributes to the weather derivative pricing literature by incorporating both the hedgeable and unhedgeable parts of weather risks in illustrating the portfolio effects on the indifference prices of weather derivatives.     

完善森林管理 增强碳汇能力

森林与全球气候变暖有着紧密的联系,森林可以吸收二氧化碳,成为碳吸收器,但是森林如果遭到破坏就会成为二氧化碳的释放源,所以我们必须加强森林资源的科学管理,让森林成为有利于人类生存发展的碳汇而不是碳源。     

极端天气下特大型城市“水资源-能源-粮食”安全风险研究

以国内外特大型城市的极端天气事件和“水资源-能源-粮食”纽带关系的理论与实践为指导,分析极端天气下特大型城市外部水资源、能源、粮食压力突出问题,得出极端天气下特大型城市“水资源-能源-粮食”安全风险具有复杂性、安全系统具有脆弱性的特征;极端天气短期内激发了特大型城市资源需求,加剧了资源供应中断的风险,从而影响特大型城市资源安全。指出应通过“硬件”治理(韧性基础设施建设)和“软件”治理(“点-线-面”多主体协同治理)两个方面的安全风险韧性治理路径,应对当前极端天气下特大型城市“水资源-能源-粮食”安全风险治理的挑战。     

Welcome to the Wet Tropics: the importance of weather in reef tourism resilience1

As one of Australia's iconic tourism attractions and one of the seven natural wonders of the world, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is an important economic, social and natural resource for Queensland's Tropical North. However, the long-term prognosis for the health of the reef and by implication, the industries dependent on it, is not positive. So far much attention has focussed on the health and resilience of the reef ecosystem, as a foundation for a resilient tourism industry. In this study we explore how weather conditions have affected the reef experiences of 1000 tourists to the Cairns/Port Douglas region, suggesting that this may also be an important indicator of change on the reef. The results suggest that poor weather has a more pronounced effect on experiences than good weather and reinforce the likelihood that seasickness, cold and wet conditions, reduced water visibility, and difficult snorkelling/diving conditions will reduce overall levels of satisfaction. Poor weather was found to have a direct effect on satisfaction scores, the likelihood that reef and tour expectations were not realised, and lowered perceived value for money. These are important considerations for the reef centred tourism industry that is currently facing strong environment pressures from climate change.     

Adapting to climate change: perceptions of vulnerability of down-hill ski area operators in Southern and Middle Finland

Climate change is likely to affect the tourism sector, particularly areas, such as snow-based tourism, that are directly dependent on climate and weather conditions. Especially vulnerable are low-lying ski areas. This study identifies the climatic factors that are crucial for economically successful operation of low-lying ski areas in Southern and Middle Finland and contemplates how these factors are seen to change with climate change. The study then analyses the preferences for and perceptions of adaptation strategies of downhill ski operators in terms of the adaptation measures they can implement or are willing to take. The findings indicate that climatic conditions set preconditions for the operation of the ski areas, but short-term operational prospects and inter-annual variability in weather conditions rather than foreseen changes in climatic conditions guide the operational decisions of the ski area operators. A key adaptation strategy to respond to uncertain snow conditions is artificial snowmaking, which lowers the vulnerability of the areas to the impacts of climate change too.     

Motorway speeds in wet weather: the comparative influence of porous and conventional asphalt surfacings

This paper examines motorists’ speeds in wet weather compared with non-hazardous dry conditions (the control) for two separate survey locations on the M4 motorway, south Wales. One site was surfaced with conventional asphalt, whilst the other location had a porous asphalt wearing course. The aim of this study is to establish whether drivers compensate for the additional risks posed in rain by reducing their speed in wet weather. Drivers are slowing down in wet weather, but only marginally; and although the speed reductions proved statistically significant, they are insufficient to compensate for the additional wet weather risks imposed. Such findings have broader implications for the government’s road safety targets.     

Optimising seed portfolios to cope ex ante with risks from bad weather: evidence from a recent maize farmer survey in China

Using 4‐year panel data collected from surveying 640 farmers from leading maize producing provinces in China, this study analyses how maize farmers cope with anticipated risks from bad weather by strategically adjusting variety portfolios, with particular interest in farmers' strategies in choosing and combining new and old varieties. While diversification was commonly demonstrated to be an effective means to reduce risk in most previous studies, our empirical results indicate that, in facing anticipated risks from bad weather, Chinese maize farmers tend to use fewer new varieties and allocate more land to old varieties. The lack of knowledge about weather tolerance of new varieties might be the major reason for this practice. As new varieties often have higher yield potential relative to old varieties due to technological progress, this finding suggests that Chinese maize farmers might be trading yield potential against risk reduction from bad weather. Furthermore, this study shows that maize farmers' variety adoption is significantly related to farmers' land conditions as well as their access to credit markets and technique extensions, suggesting that a well‐designed policy intervention could offset or partially offset the anticipation of adverse weather impacts on farmers' variety choices and therefore on maize production.     

基于Copula方法的天气指数保险产品设计——以南通棉花降水指数保险为例

天气指数保险是农业金融重要创新之一。文章致力于运用Copula函数方法研究棉花产量和不同生育期降水之间的非线性关系;利用条件期望求解一定降水量条件下的预期产量水平,最终计算得到天气指数保险的非线性支付函数和保险费率。     

An examination of factors influencing the application of mechanisms of organizations' resilience to weather extremes

The ability to resist and respond to an external shock and recover once it has occurred is called resilience. The present paper discusses mechanisms of organizations' resilience to weather extremes. The objective of the study was to determine factors influencing the application of resilience mechanisms by European organizations. The paper presents the frequency particular mechanisms are applied in and determinants of their employment. We tested a model in which individual, organizational, community‐specific, and extreme‐related factors influence application of resilience mechanisms, which in turn influence adaptive resilience. The present study revealed that some of the selected resilience mechanisms are applied more frequently than others. The mechanisms include disposition and administration of resources, self‐organization, intraorganizational communication, damage assessment, review of previous events, and the acquisition of external information. The significance of 10 factors impacting the using of resilience mechanisms was verified in the course of the study. Findings are intended to facilitate a better understanding of resilience to weather extremes in organizations.