Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop-specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather-driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present-day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.     

影响我国农业生产的气象灾害分析

我国是气象灾害的多发区,气象灾害对我国农业生产影响较大。气象灾害的类型有：原生气象灾害、次生气象灾害和气象衍生灾害。影响我国农业生产的干旱、洪涝、低温冷冻、风雹等是几种主要气象灾害。     

中国入境旅游业对危机事件响应的区域差异研究

危机事件给入境旅游业带来负面影响,准确分析各种危机事件对我国不同区域的影响差异具有现实意义。通过时间序列法和变异系数进行分析,结果表明,在区域灾害高发期或者灾害发生年,特定时段入境旅游流占区域全年比例往往低于同期全国相应水平,对生命安全造成威胁、引起交通中断的灾害对区域入境旅游流影响较严重。我国东部地区入境旅游业对危机事件反应较为缓和,抗御危机事件能力较强且恢复速度快;西北部干旱地区以及西藏、海南入境旅游业对危机事件反应较为敏感,抗御危机事件能力较弱且恢复速度慢。北京、上海入境旅游业一直走在全国前列,但是易受危机事件干扰。政治与疾病事件对入境旅游业与国内旅游业均造成严重打击,同时多种危机事件叠加也会对入境旅游业造成较大影响,与国内旅游业相比入境旅游业对危机事件反应更为敏感。     

电视气象预报节目质量定量考核体系探析

随着电视气象预报节目不断增多,质量问题时有出现。为提高节目质量,对节目质量考核势在必行。文章从节目制作角度分析了电视气象预报节目的特点,并在此基础上提出了一个主客观相结合的节目质量定量考核体系。在该体系中,对节目采取分项评分的方法,并考虑节目中预报内容和附加内容时长不断变化的特点,对这两项内容采取动态评分。此项研究为电视气象预报节目质量定量考核业务使用提供参考。     

Spanish Stock Returns: Where is the Weather Effect?

Psychological studies support the existence of an influence of weather on mood. Saunders (1993) and Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) argue that the weather could affect the behaviour of market traders and, therefore, it should be reflected in the stock returns. This paper investigates the possible relation between weather and market index returns in the context of the Spanish market. In 1989, this market changed its open outcry trading system into a computerised and decentralised trading system. Therefore, it is possible to check the influence of weather variables (sunshine hours and humidity levels) on index returns in an open outcry trading system, and to compare it with a screen traded environment. The empirical evidence indicates that, independently of the trading system, there is no influence of weather on stock prices. Thus, these findings do not contest the notion of efficient markets.     

基于交通运输的雾霾形成机理及对策研究--以北京为例

机动车尾排放是影响雾霾天气的主要因素,因而对雾霾天气的治理应相对突出建设道路交通设施以及加强各管理制度。围绕这一重点,基于PM2.5视角对雾霾的形成机理进行研究,认为汽车摇号、限制尾号出行对于缓解城市雾霾问题作用有限,通过控制机动车保有量、增加公路密度、发展轨道交通可以有效解决交通拥堵问题,强化和完善管理制度、建立雾霾防治区域合作机制,才真正有可能解决雾霾持续频发问题。     

Red sky at night or in the morning,to the equity market neither a delight nor a warning: the weather effect re-examined using intraday stock data

Unlike most of the existing literature on the weather effect, we conducted our analysis by employing intraday weather and market data, examining a large set of stocks rather than indices only, including volume and volatility data in the study and inspecting a wide number of weather variables (temperature, humidity, pressure, visibility, wind, cloud, rain and snow). Our analysis covered the Italian stock market for the period August 2005–March 2014 for a total of 2201 trading days. We conclude that no systematic relationship seems to exist between the weather and the Italian stock market. Moreover, our results raise doubts that testing the weather effect by limiting the analysis to indices only can lead to spurious conclusions.     

气候变化对滨海旅游的影响研究进展及启示

从滨海旅游资源环境复合系统的角度,将气候变化对滨海旅游的影响分解为气候变暖、海平面上升和极端气候事件,按旅游景观系统和旅游者两个层面进行综述。研究表明：气候变化对滨海旅游资源环境系统的影响,不仅仅是滨海景观组分的增与减,或旅游者旅游行为的简单改变,而是重塑整个滨海旅游资源环境系统。气候变化影响下的中国未来滨海旅游发展不容乐观,只有重视旅游环境教育,培养和提高不同群体的旅游环境感知,才能真正推动低碳时代的到来。     

水产养殖保险应用类型的比较研究

我国现阶段所开展的水产养殖保险主要有两种类型,一种是传统型,即以实际损失程度为理赔依据的水产养殖保险;另一种是创新型,目前主要以气象指标发生程度为理赔依据的水产养殖保险。两种类型的水产养殖保险在险种设计、运营管理和承保理赔方式等方面存在着显著的差异,应用条件及适用范围也存在较大不同。论文通过比对两种类型的水产养殖保险的特征与利弊,结合我国现有的水产养殖品种和养殖模式,重点对其应用范围进行了分析,并提出了有关建议,以期能对相关机构推进水产养殖保险工作提供参考。     

Pricing Weather Derivatives

This article presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives. Specification tests find that a temperature series for Fresno, CA follows a mean-reverting Brownian motion process with discrete jumps and autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors. Based on this process, we define an equilibrium pricing model for cooling degree day weather options. Comparing option prices estimated with three methods: a traditional burn-rate approach, a Black-Scholes-Merton approximation, and an equilibrium Monte Carlo simulation reveals significant differences. Equilibrium prices are preferred on theoretical grounds, so are used to demonstrate the usefulness of weather derivatives as risk management tools for California specialty crop growers.