农业自然风险的金融管理：天气衍生品的兴起

天气衍生品是农业保险创新的产物，它将金融工具的理念用于自然灾害的风险管理，为农业生产者的风险转移提供了新途径。天气衍生品的推出可以增强保险公司和再保险公司分散风险的能力，有助于提高农业自然风险的管理水平。本文介绍了全球天气衍生品发展的产品与市场状况，并提出了相关的政策建议。     

WR08XM型数字化天气雷达简介

WR08XM型数字化天气雷达是一种整机结构小巧、重量轻,同固定式雷达相比且能做到及时准确地探测雷达周围半径100Km、高度20Km范围内云雨目标,经过考证,比较适合用其做人影移动应急保障车载雷达使用。     

A Fair Pricing Approach to Weather Derivatives

This paper proposes a consistent approach to the pricing of weather derivatives. Since weather derivatives are traded in an incomplete market setting, standard hedging based pricing methods cannot be applied. The growth optimal portfolio, which is interpreted as a world stock index, is used as a benchmark or numeraire such that all benchmarked derivative price processes are martingales. No measure transformation is needed for the proposed fair pricing. For weather derivative payoffs that are independent of the value of the growth optimal portfolio, it is shown that the classical actuarial pricing methodology is a particular case of the fair pricing concept. A discrete time model is constructed to approximate historical weather characteristics. The fair prices of some particular weather derivatives are derived using historical and Gaussian residuals. The question of weather risk as diversifiable risk is also discussed. 1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary 90A12; secondary 60G30; 62P20 JEL Classification: C16, G10, G13     

Reinsuring Climatic Risk Using Optimally Designed Weather Bonds

The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal structure of a weather bond, i.e. a bond whose coupons depend on the occurence of a weather event. The stress is put more on the structuration than on the simple pricing of the bond. Therefore, instead of looking only at the bond issue, we consider it as a part of a more general transaction, involving three agents: a firm, which wants to be hedged against its weather risk, an investor, which buys the bond and a bank, which has an intermediary key role. Then, we derive the optimal characteristics of the whole transaction. But the bond structure which is obtained, corresponds to a minimal structure: indeed, only the bond optimal price function and its optimal reimbursement level (amount which is paid back when an event occurs) can be determined while there is a degree of freedom in the choice of the optimal coupon. Therefore, this indeterminacy may be interpreted as a marketing tool and it could play an important role in the negotiation process between the issuer and the investor.     

山西沁县谷子综合天气指数保险研究

农作物受灾机理十分复杂,在生长过程中往往受到多重灾害的共同影响,本文以山西沁县谷子为例展开综合天气指数保险研究。首先,构建干旱指数PI-、P2-、P3-、P4-、暴雨指数P3+共5个天气指数。然后,引入数据优化匹配方法,通过逐步调整产量去趋势步长、天气指数异常阈值和产量损失阈值,寻找最大拟合优度R2值来达到最优匹配,以实现定量评估天气指数对作物产量影响的目的。在优化匹配关系模型的基础上,得到山西沁县谷子综合天气指数保险产品的保险费率、天气指数触发值和赔付标准。本文旨在为开展综合性的天气指数保险提供技术支撑,也为转移与管理气象灾害风险提供实际应用方案。     

Where,When, and by How Much Does Abnormal Weather Affect Housing Construction?

This article investigates whether departures from normal in precipitation or temperature have a significant contemporaneous effect on housing starts in each month of the year, for the nation as a whole and in each of the four Census regions. It also evaluates the extent to which these immediate effects are reversed in later months. The results indicate that atypical weather has statistically significant effects on the change in housing starts that are concentrated in the months of the first quarter and that the magnitude of these effects is quite substantial. However, such effects also are found in some other months as well. Significant lagged effects are found that tend to offset the contemporaneous effects of weather deviations.     

The adoption and impact of engineering‐type measures to address climate change: evidence from the major grain‐producing areas in China

Employing an endogenous switching regression model, we investigate the drivers underlying the adaptations made by farm households and their impacts on crop net incomes for adopters and nonadopters, based on a large panel survey data set across the major grain‐producing provinces in China. The results show that: (i) access to public climate information and technical or physical support increases the likelihood that farmers adapt to climate change by undertaking irrigation and/or drainage measures; and (ii) decisions to adapt increased crop yield, but they did not significantly increase crop profit margins. This point appears to have been ignored by previous studies. Based on these new empirical results, the paper suggests that government should continue to provide climate information and various types of supports to improve farmers’ adaptation abilities and help to reduce the levels of factor input by, for example, substituting organic for chemical fertiliser inputs. Such government‐led policies should be supported alongside the implementation of domestic agricultural supply‐side reform.     

The weather and macroeconomic determinants of whale-watching tourism: a Markov regime-switching analysis

Taking in sail is essential for a whale-watching excursion, which makes the demand for whale-watching tourism sensitive to the weather. The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of two potential demand-side determinants, that is, weather and macroeconomic conditions, on the business cycle of Taiwan’s whale-watching tourism industry. By exploiting a Markov regime-switching model, this study finds that temperature and relative price changes are crucial determinants of the demand for whale-watching tourism, no matter whether in the peaks or in the troughs. Nevertheless, the influences of sunshine hours, rainfall and real GDP per capita on the demand for whale-watching tourism depend heavily on the phases of business cycle. The empirical results provide some inspiration for sustainable management of Taiwan’s whale-watching tourism.     

The impacts of weather on tourist satisfaction and revisit intention: a study of South Korean domestic tourism

This study explores the impacts of weather on tourist satisfaction and intention to revisit sites utilizing a survey of 1736 domestic tourists in South Korea. This study adds tourists’ perceived quality of weather to a path model that anticipates revisit intention and was originally based on the perceived quality of physical attributes and service, as well as tourist satisfaction. The results of this study show that the perceived quality of weather affects tourist satisfaction and revisit intention directly and indirectly, and that it correlates with the perceived quality of physical attributes and service. It was determined that the impact of weather perception on tourist satisfaction and revisit intention is higher in rainy weather conditions. The results of the study show that to sustain tourist satisfaction and revisit intention, efforts to moderate the negative impacts of uncomfortable weather conditions are required, especially in rainy weather.     

危险天气下的实时动态改航策略研究

为提高危险天气下的飞行安全性,降低管制员雷达引导绕飞危险天气区域的工作负荷,优化航空器在危险天气下的改航路径,首先构建编码空域信息矩阵,用栅格化的方法表示危险天气区域,定义危险天气区域的移动方向和速度,明确区域内危险天气区域对航路航线的安全威胁;进而针对移动的危险天气区域对空域内航路航线的影响,提出基于改进人工势场法的实时动态改航策略,让航班能够尽快绕过动态危险天气区域,从而提高空域的利用率。结果表明：基于改进人工势场法的实时动态改航策略,能够完成在动态环境下的最优路径选取的任务,快速高效地规划并选取出一条路径,并随环境的变化相应地改变,具有一定的稳定性和较强的适应能力。