Government Consumption and Industrial Productivity: Scale and Compositional Effects

Within a production function framework in which government spending produces public goods which enter firms production functions, empirical tests using time series data spanning eleven countries and thirty industries find both the scale and the composition of government consumption spending to affect the level and the rate of growth of total factor productivity at the industry level.Jel Classification: H50, D24     

个性化推荐系统对移动电子商务消费者购买决策的影响力及其应用策略

移动电子商务为消费者拓宽了对商品的选择空间,同时也诱发了信息过载、搜索负担过重等问题。为了缓解信息过载的压力,提升消费者的满意度,个性化推荐服务应运而生。主要以消费者购买决策为研究对象,分析了个性化推荐技术如何影响购买决策,并探析了个性化推荐系统在移动电子商务中的应用策略。     

遮阳系数对供暖与空调能耗的影响差异分析

随着科技的不断发展,环境污染和能源损耗越来越严重,不利于我国的可持续发展。目前来说,国家大力倡导节能减排,减少资源浪费,而建筑环境设备会产生较大的能耗,不利于节能减排,因此有效控制建筑空调能耗和供暖能耗至关重要。研究表明,遮阳系数的大小对空调能耗产生较为明显的影响,而对供暖能耗产生的效果不是特别明显。因此,本文着重探讨遮阳系数对供暖与空调能耗影响存在的差异,希望能为同行提供一点参考。     

中国城镇家庭能源贫困评估——基于微观调查数据的研究

我国扶贫工作重点已进入新阶段,从消除绝对贫困向缓解发展不平衡、不充分的相对贫困转变,从解决收入贫困向解决多维贫困转变,从重点解决农村贫困问题向统筹城乡扶贫转变。能源是人民生活质量的重要指标,能有效反映福利水平。了解我国城镇家庭能源消费的基本特征、准确测度能源贫困水平与分布,有助于为今后扶贫工作提供资料基础和科学管理依据。本文构建消费者能源消费决策分析框架,并运用第一次中国家庭能源消费调查数据,考察居民收入与能源消费之间的关系,并对中国城镇家庭能源贫困状况进行测度。研究发现,居民收入与能源消费之间存在S型非线性关系,能源价格、家庭特征、地域特征等因素在能源消费决策中都发挥重要影响。我国城镇家庭相对能源贫困较为严重,主要表现为能源可支付性问题。能源贫困率在20%左右,其中电力贫困程度更为严重,超过25%。家庭收入增长、户主受教育程度提高、城市电力基础设施的普及、城市环境规制水平的提升会显著降低城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性,而电力价格上涨会显著增加城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的概率。     

城市化与城市资源消耗间关系的实证研究——以北京市为例

建立基于误差修正模型的Granger因果关系模型,检验分析了北京的城市化与城市资源消耗之间的因果关系。结果显示:在短期内,北京的城市化与城市资源消耗互为Granger因果关系;在长期内,仅存在从城市化到城市资源消耗的单向Granger因果关系,这表明当前及今后很长一段时间内北京城市化仍较多依赖资源消耗。最后指出建立有助于节约资源的城市化推进模式是实现北京市可持续发展的根本路径选择。     

网络购物行为影响因素实证研究--基于双渠道视角

线上、线下双渠道运作已经成为互联网时代传统企业渠道变革的一大趋势,越来越多的现代消费者变成了双渠道消费者,越来越多的商家在利用传统销售渠道销售产品的同时也通过网络直销模式进行产品销售。本文基于现有网络购物影响因素文献,整合多渠道选择理论和顾客价值理论,构建了双渠道下消费者网络购物行为影响因素模型并提出相应假设。同时以桂林电子科技大学学生消费者为研究对象,以双渠道为研究视角,对消费者网络购物行为的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究得出了五个驱动消费者进行网络购物的影响因素并实证证明了其分别对消费者网络购物选择行为具有显著的正向影响。最后,针对实证分析结论,探讨了相应的实践意义与研究不足,以期为企业营销决策提供参考。     

Does player specialization predict player actions? Evidence from penalty kicks at FIFA World Cup and UEFA Euro Cup

Penalty kicks are analysed in the literature as ‘real life experiments’ for assessing the use of rational mixed strategies by professional players. However, each penalty kick cannot be considered a repetition of the same event because of the varying background conditions, in particular the heterogeneous ability of different players. Consequently, aggregate statistics over data sets composed of a large number of penalty kicks mediate the behaviour of the players in different games, and the properties of optimal mixed strategies cannot be tested directly because of aggregation bias. In this article, we model the heterogeneous ability of players. We then test the hypothesis that differently talented players randomize over different actions. To achieve this aim, we study a data set that collects penalties kicked during shoot-out series in the last editions of FIFA World Cup and UEFA Euro Cup (1994–2012) where kickers are categorized as specialists and non-specialists. The results support our theoretical predictions.     

Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?

This paper presents a simulation model based on the growth rate, the inflation rate, and the consumption tax rate in the future. Future tax revenues and fiscal expenditures are projected using regression models estimated from past data. The fiscal situation is called unsustainable if the outstanding amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) becomes higher than the level of private sector financial assets. We focus on the general account of the central government, which is the source of JGB issues. We find that the higher the economic growth, the more likely it is that the fiscal situation is sustainable. When a larger portion of interest income is reinvested in JGBs, the chance is higher that the fiscal situation is sustainable. Most importantly, raising the consumption tax to 20% guarantees fiscal sustainability in most cases. Our analysis shows that without a consumption tax hike beyond the 10% rate, a fiscal crisis will be almost a certainty, even with a real economic growth rate of 2% despite a shrinking labor force. A reasonably quick hike of the consumption tax, namely a hike by 1% a year, up to 20%, combined with high or moderate economic growth rates, seems to keep the economy out of a fiscal crisis, where a moderate growth rate is defined to be generated by a productivity increase per working‐age population of 1.9%, which was the average during the Koizumi years.     

中国农村居民旅游消费滞后性及影响因素研究

通过构建误差修正模型,分析农村居民人均纯收入、城镇化以及除旅游消费以外的其他生活消费支出对农村居民旅游消费滞后性的影响,农村居民旅游消费滞后于农村居民人均纯收入、农村居民生活消费支出和城镇居民旅游消费;城镇化对农村居民旅游消费水平的影响较弱,农村居民人均纯收入水平和其他生活消费支出对其旅游消费水平的影响程度接近;城镇化中居民权益的不平等、农村居民收入不稳定、医疗、交通等支出的增加是制约农村居民旅游消费水平的重要原因。     

全面优化教学环境运行机制的研究探讨

教学环境的优劣对于学生的身心发展有着极为重要的影响。要在正确认识教学环境重要作用的基础上,构建全面优化教学环境的运行机制,关键就是要构建政策支持的领导管理机制,建立传统教学与现代化教学的协调和共享机制,建立全面覆盖的教师培训交流机制,构建多元化的绩效评价机制。