中国近代教育溯源——以1900年之前的京师同文馆为视角

京师同文馆是中国教育的一次巨大革新,是中国近代教育的起源。本文首先从微观的角度对京师同文馆的沿革、教育思想、培养目标、教学内容、教学手段、师资力量、学生来源、教育的管理与评价体系这几个方面对其作了分析;然后从宏观的角度,把京师同文馆与它所在的历史背景联系起来作了总体性的分析与评价。反思并且回顾这段历史对于了解中国近代教育的起源有重要作用,对于今天中国教育改革也有一定的现实意义。     

人民币升值压力分析及政策建议

2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币汇率振荡走高。进入2008年,人民币升值趋势不减,已先后45余次创出汇改以来新高。本文结合汇率改革以来的人民币汇率变动情况,对未来人民币汇率的变动趋势做一些粗浅的分析并提出相应的政策建议。     

Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order?

The recent financial crisis highlighted some of the underlying defects in the dollar-based reserve system. This paper argues that the era of the US hegemonic stability and unipolarity, which provided the foundation for the dollar’s sustenance as the pre-eminent global reserve currency, has already peaked and the global economy of the future will revolve around a multipolar order. The rise of China, along with other emerging markets, is rapidly redrawing the traditional Western dominated global economic system. The structural challenges facing the American economy along with the extraordinary expansion of Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the explosion of the US government debt will diminish the attractiveness of the dollar standard going forward. Our analysis suggests that a tripolar currency order—consisting of the dollar, the yuan and the euro—will replace the dollar standard in the coming decades.     

论孔子中庸思想的公正意蕴

任何一种社会秩序都奠基于一定的公正观念之上,从一定意义上讲,秩序乃是公正的外化。在一个具有漫长文明史的社会中,人们不可能不对如何分配他们各自的社会政治地位这样一个基本问题做出回答。孔子的中庸思想即内涵着丰富的公正意蕴——“中”:公正的标准;“礼”:公正的规范原则;“和”:公正的理想目标。     

Chinese trade price and Yuan's valuation

This paper studies how the major economic events would have affected Chinese yuan's nominal exchange rate against US dollar from 1989 to 2013. The traditional average treatment effect estimation methods cannot be used to consistently estimate yuan's pegged exchange rate. We develop a new estimation strategy by combining a novel panel data method (proposed by Hisao, Ching and Wan) and the purchasing power parity theory. Based on this new estimation strategy, we find that during the period of pegging to US dollar, Chinese yuan were undervalued. Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the pegged exchange rate regime starting from January 1994 made the yuan undervalued by 2.62%. China's accession to WTO caused yuan undervalued by 36.60%. After the reform of Chinese exchange rate policy in July 2005, the undervaluation of the yuan was reduced to only 0.76%. Yuan was undervalued again by 20.43% because of 2008 China's economy stimulus package. The policy reform in June 2010 made yuan overvalued by 14.40%. We conclude that Chinese fixed exchange rate policy indeed undervalued the yuan, especially after its accession to WTO. The recent reforms of Chinese exchange rate policy made progresses in re‐evaluating the yuan.     

寸关尺脉象的物理溯源

根据流体力学原理，分析了中医脉象的形成机制，并利用反射波与压力波的叠加，率先解释了脏腑病变与寸、关、尺脉象的对应关系。     

海南省用水效率测算及可达性分析

针对最严格水资源管理以及水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动提出的效率指标要求,测算海南省预期万元GDP用水量和万元工业增加值用水量,评估用水指标的可达性。阐释了用水效率的影响因素,综合应用时间序列法和灰色等维动态递补模型,对2020年和2025年用水指标进行预测,并将现状年指标与国内外先进水平进行对比分析。结果预估2020年全省万元GDP用水量、万元工业增加值用水量分别较现状年下降27. 7%、36. 2%,能够达到国家要求的控制目标。这一结果为落实水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动提供技术支撑,对于海南省水资源优化配置具有参考价值。     

In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation

International commentators seem to have a consensus view that the Chinese yuan is substantially undervalued and the Chinese monetary authority must take speedy actions to redress the currency misalignment by rapid nominal revaluation. This paper argues for a gradualist but comprehensive strategy for adjusting the renminbi’s exchange rate. Taking into consideration the facts that the yuan’s undervaluation is caused by an array of domestic and international factors and that the Chinese central bank cannot effectively invest its growing holdings of foreign reserves, we develop a framework to provide a theoretical underpinning for the optimal strategy for the renminbi’s gradual revaluation. With this strategy, the renminbi undervaluation problem is gradually redressed through a combination of nominal appreciation and higher inflation plus some other structural and macroeconomic policies. This strategy can also allow absorption of external imbalances, hence strengthening the foundation of China’s long-term growth.     

Explosive bubbles in the US–China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests

In this article we apply novel right-tailed unit root (sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and generalized sup ADF) tests to the China–US exchange rate. The empirical results document that the recent financial crisis in 2008 may be preceded by early warning signs of exuberance. Using the SADF test, evidence of an explosive behavior in the nominal exchange is found from 2005 onwards. This period coincides with both financial reforms in China and early indications of an impending US crisis that both have been reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that such an explosive behavior may be attributable to differences in the relative prices of traded goods. Policy implications are also derived.     

深圳、河源对口帮扶的现状及可能的创新举措

目前阶段,自主创新、区域协作成为地方发展主导举措方向的大形势下,如何发挥深圳、河源两市的比较优势,创新帮扶形式,实现产业结构调整及转移,值得深入研究。本文回顾了深圳、河源对口帮扶的历程及形式,并提出了一些未来有可能采取的创新举措,供地方政府参考。