美国贸易逆差:增长惯性与可持续性

美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”，尤其是近年来高速增长，已引起人们广泛的关注。1990年代来的美国贸易逆差，已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列回归分析及相关分析，本文得出的结论是：当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长，并且只要美国能够维持强势美元，资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差，美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。在本文的最后一部分，作者针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”，结合近10年来中美双边贸易现实，说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系，人民币升值不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。     

U.S. Money Supply and China’s Business Cycles

This article models the U.S. dollar as a world currency in a global DSGE framework, and investigates the spillover effects of the U.S. money supply shock on China’s economy. Exchange rate targeting and capital controls in the context of dollar hegemony are investigated. Given a positive U.S. money supply shock, both the inflation and real GDP of China will be below their steady-state levels in the medium term; while for the U.S. there is no inflation pressure. The spillover of liquidity effect exists. Cost-push effects and relative price effects are employed to discuss the transmission mechanism. Under the U.S. money supply shock, a fully liberalizing reform with no capital controls and a floating exchange rate of Renminbi is not the best reform for China.     

国际经济背景下美元贬值的原因、影响及对策分析

美元贬值主要是由美元与主要经济体货币调整不同步以及方向选择差异而形成。对于不同经济体而言,美元贬值存在着非常分明的正负效应,由此导致了各国政府态度认识上的不同。同时,总体上美元的渐次贬值有利于全球经济走向均衡,但速率过猛的美元贬值却会破坏国际经济的均衡。因此,未来美元的下跌空间会受到限制,“美元危机”只是一个伪命题。     

美元贬值下的人民币汇率制度选择

2002年以来，美元汇率持续贬值，对世界经济及我国经济产生了重大影响。对人民币实质汇率水平也产生了重大影响，人民币实质汇率水平的决定除了取决于美元趋势外，主要还受国内宏观经济的变化趋势、国际收支的变化趋势的影响。为此，我国应在保持人民币汇率稳定前提下，尽快培育和完善人民币汇率市场，形成机制，增强汇率杠杆对经济的调节作用，推动外汇市场的管理创新，增强交易主体的竞争力。     

对外开放条件下的金融安全问题

我国近几年外贸顺差的连创新高,并且进、出口增长的走势与世界经济的联动性日益明显,我国的实体经济已经越来越融入全球经济的大环境当中。同时,我们外贸结构的升级也正在以更快的步伐前进,我国双边贸易的高速增长仍将维持一段时间。中国股市在经历了“2.27”暴跌之后,全球各主要股市随后也遭到重挫。笔者并不认为目前中国的股市对于全球市场有如此巨大的影响,但是全球石油美元的流动以及日元利差交易的变化情况已经逐渐受到国内投资者的重视,中国资本市场已经成为了全球市场的重要一环。在国内实体经济、虚拟经济与世界联动性不断增强的背景下,我们应该更加关注外部因素对于国内经济稳定性的影响,同时也要从其他国家的历史发展经验当中吸取金融安全监管方面的教训。     

Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?

Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealand's economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar. If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory Australian monetary conditions prevailing over the 1990s, then output growth may have been temporarily boosted. However, demand pressures would have probably been greater and inflation higher. In particular, results suggest that over the latter part of the 1990s annual inflation would have been approximately 1% point higher on average. Stochastic simulation experiments provide a vehicle to analyse what the implications of currency union might be more generally. Results suggest that if New Zealand were to lose its ability to set monetary policy independent of that set in Australia, then the variability of inflation and output would increase over the business cycle.     

Lost in intervention. The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect on the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998)

We have decomposed the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998) into its trend and cyclical components and used the former to proxy its time-varying equilibrium. Then, we have compared changes in the equilibrium with changes in the Spanish and the USA productivity differentials to identify years that do not fit with the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson (HBS) hypothesis. The greatest maladjustment is found in the 1940s and 1950s, decades of strong exchange rate intervention in Spain. Conversely, the link between equilibrium and differentials adjusts to the hypothesis when using the non-intervened peseta/dollar exchange rate on the Tangier black market. These contrasting results back up the idea that exchange rate intervention, so common in developing countries, might explain their scanter evidence in favour of the HBS effect.     

从“特里芬难题”看美元的扩张及其影响

随着世界经济贸易的不断扩展和国际货币需求的日益增加,美元对国外的供给将不断扩大,但如果美国国际收支持续出现顺差,则美元的供给就将减少,难以满足国际需求;如果美国国际收支持续出现逆差,则又不利于美元价值的稳定,就要导致美元的贬值,这一点,罗伯特·特星芬早在20世纪60年代就做出了准确的预测。发生在美国的金融危机与美国半个多世纪以来的周期性国际收支失衡和美元极度扩张密切相关,美元的不稳定使国际金融体系变得更加脆弱。美元扩张已经积累了巨大的全球金融体系的风险,使全球经济面临上世纪大萧条以来最为严重的金融和经济危机。     

When food regimes become hegemonic: Agrarian India through a Gramscian lens

The concept of food regimes, as developed by Friedmann and McMichael, has proven useful in analysing how systems of food production, distribution, and consumption are linked to cycles of global capital accumulation and identifying the contradictions and conflicts that underlie them. A question that food regime analysis is relatively less able to address, however, is how food regimes become established and endure with the apparent acquiescence of those who are the victims of their contradictions and inequities. In this paper, I argue that a deeper engagement with Gramsci's theory of hegemony may help to address this lacuna in food regime analysis. To illustrate my case, I draw on studies of rural India from the colonial period to the present day, highlighting the ways in which the hegemonic mechanisms of consent and coercion have been crucial to the consolidation of each of the three food regimes identified by Friedmann and McMichael.     

Changing patterns of Asian currencies’ co-movement with the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi: Evidence from a wavelet multiresolution analysis

We extend the Frankel–Wei approach by using wavelet analysis to evaluate the relative importance of the dollar and the renminbi as anchor currencies at different time scales. We find that Asian currencies’ co-movement with the dollar weakened after the global financial crisis, while that with the renminbi strengthened particularly after China introduced a new exchange rate management system in 2015. The evidence suggests that emerging Asian economies have recently attached more importance to the renminbi as an anchor in exchange rate management.