Do Fundamentals Explain the Behaviour of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate?

This study examines the long‐run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and its fundamental determinants, and derives a real effective equilibrium exchange rate for the Swedish krona. Our results indicate that the krona was severely overvalued in late 1992, when the fixed exchange rate regime was abandoned. By the end of 2000 the krona was undervalued by approximately 5 percent, given the prevailing economic conditions. Arithmetic examples of suitable SEK/EUR conversion rates are calculated under various assumptions to provide a guideline if Sweden were to adopt the euro in the future.     

Optimum currency areas and the European experience

Across nations or regions, the debate on optimum exchange rate cum monetary policies is not yet resolved on three levels. First is the optimum domain of fixed exchange rates versus keeping them flexible. Second is the subordinate debate on whether one needs full monetary union (as in continental Europe) to secure an optimum currency area's internal domain; or, whether virtually fixed exchange rates — where national currencies remain in circulation — can be sufficient. Third is whether a regional grouping of economies with close trade ties (as in East Asia) gain by collectively pegging to an outside currency such as the US dollar. Using an axiomatic approach, which limits the set of cross‐country financial claims to what is feasible, I analyse how best to both share and reduce macroeconomic risks on these three levels. JEL classification: F31, F36.     

铁路运输客货管理机制的探讨

随着我国加入WTO和铁路全面参与运输市场竞争,必须尽快构建适应市场需求的铁路客货管理的动力机制和运作机制,以激发企业和员工搞好营销的内在活力,同时要构建铁路客运和货运的服务质量评价指标,以及相应的质量监督和考核管理办法,做到各项管理活而不乱、管而不死,使铁路客货运输服务质量不断提高,以满足不断增长的经济和社会发展需要。     

Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

浅谈企业信用风险管理

社会主义经济是信用经济,没有信用,就没有秩序,市场经济就不能健康的发展。加强企业信用管理的风险控制是现代企业的一项重要任务。进入WTO标志着中国经济更加开放,国际贸易更加纷繁复杂,在机遇透人的同时,企业也潜伏着越来越大的风险,尤其是企业信用风险。因此强化企业的信用风险管理,建立与完善企业内部信用风险管理体制,仍然是企业面临的一项重要课题,笔者从多方面阐述了企业信用风险形成的原因以及如何建立风险管理机制等问题。     

产业集群创新的机制与政策建议

创新的集群化决定了产业集群创新的优势，但这并不意味着集群竞争优势的必然性，创新优势的实现在于特定需求对集群的创新的压力和动力，企业之间竞争与合作的推动，知识技能的扩散集聚效应和地方资源与制度环境的催化作用，政府应从宏观市场机制、产业集群环境以及产业集群的发展战略上促进产业集群创新优势的形成。     

试论新时期高等学校财务管理改革与机制转换

随着高等教育事业的改革与发展,高校理财的宏观环境发生了较大变化。本文阐述了在经济转型、制度变迁的新时期,高校财务管理如何顺应改革的要求,转换机制不断创新,使高校资源在市场规律调节下得到充分有效的整合,发挥出更大的效益,为高校的科学发展创造良好条件。